Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Cleveland, OH

075 
WWUS51 KCLE 231904
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
304 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHC005-075-151-169-231930-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-230823T1930Z/
Ashland OH-Stark OH-Wayne OH-Holmes OH-
304 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ASHLAND...SOUTHWESTERN STARK...SOUTHERN WAYNE AND
HOLMES COUNTIES...

At 304 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Canton to Mount Eaton to 8 miles southwest of
Dalton to near Shreve, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Wooster, Millersburg, Massillon, Orrville, Berlin, Walnut Creek,
Loudonville, Brewster, Navarre, Dalton, Shreve, East Sparta,
Killbuck, Holmesville, Wilmot, Glenmont, Mount Eaton, Nashville,
Winesburg and Farmerstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 8222 4079 8222 4082 8195 4088 8172
      4088 8153 4065 8131 4066 8146 4063 8167
      4045 8167 4046 8218 4057 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 328DEG 30KT 4076 8140 4068 8167 4071 8180 4073
8206

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Iverson

066 
WWUS51 KCLE 231917
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
317 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHC005-075-151-169-231930-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-230823T1930Z/
Ashland OH-Stark OH-Wayne OH-Holmes OH-
317 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ASHLAND...SOUTHWESTERN STARK...SOUTHERN WAYNE AND
HOLMES COUNTIES...

At 316 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Navarre to Winesburg to near Holmesville to near
Nashville, moving south at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Millersburg, Massillon, Berlin, Walnut Creek, Loudonville, Brewster,
Navarre, Shreve, Killbuck, Holmesville, Wilmot, Glenmont, Mount
Eaton, Nashville, Winesburg, Farmerstown, Apple Creek, Beach City,
Baltic and Fredericksburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 8222 4074 8189 4078 8174 4080 8153
      4066 8150 4063 8167 4045 8167 4046 8218
      4057 8218 4057 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 359DEG 39KT 4072 8150 4061 8171 4061 8188 4067
8213

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Iverson

335 
WWUS51 KCLE 231930
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
330 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHC005-075-151-169-231939-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-230823T1930Z/
Ashland OH-Stark OH-Wayne OH-Holmes OH-
330 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ASHLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN STARK...SOUTHERN WAYNE AND HOLMES COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 330 PM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will 
be allowed to expire. However gusty winds and heavy rain are still 
possible with these thunderstorms. A Special Weather Statement is in 
effect for Holmes County through 400 PM EDT. 

LAT...LON 4073 8222 4074 8189 4078 8174 4080 8153
      4066 8150 4063 8167 4045 8167 4046 8218
      4057 8218 4057 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 270DEG 51KT 4062 8135 4051 8156 4051 8173 4058
8198

$$

Iverson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
106 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Northeast United States will be forced
east today as several waves of weak low pressure will move
through the Great Lakes region today and Thursday. A final cold
front will then move through the area Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure will return for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
100 pm update...
Another overhaul of pops, QPF, sky cover, and temps early this
afternoon to reflect the latest radar trends. Fairly robust area
of showers and storms moving south across northeast OH and
northwest PA from Ontario over the next few hours. Precip is
mainly elevated, coincident with 850-700mb frontogenesis and
upper divergence over the lower Great Lakes, with some of the
convection over Lake Erie/lower MI more surface based on the
edge of the instability gradient. This activity may prime areas
that could see heavier rainfall overnight, so will continue to
assess the need for a Flash Flood watch by the main forecast
package this afternoon.

Original Discussion...
The near term forecast period will be quite volatile with the
forecast area on the northeast side of an anomalously strong
ridge over the central CONUS. This pattern is setting up into a
"ring of fire" setup over the next couple of days with the
potential for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with
the possibility for strong to severe storms in organized MCSs
and flooding where storms persist. Further west, storms may end
up missing portions of Northwest and Central Ohio and heat will
bubble into the region, allowing for excessive heat hazards.

Some returns are already present on radar this morning, drifting
into extreme NE OH and NW PA. Some light rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder will exist through the pre-dawn hours for
these areas before continuing eastward. The main concern for the
daytime hours today will be what develops over northern Michigan
and pushes southeast into the forecast area for the late morning
and early evening hours. Some convection has already formed from
about Traverse City to west of Marquette, Michigan and will
continue southeast in the flow toward the forecast area. With
favorable moisture and instability, this should maintain course
before fading as it reaches the forecast area as a cap of warmer
air in the 700-925 mb layer will be well established overhead.
Have a mix of 20-40 PoPs across the area for the daytime hours
today. Temperatures will be quite the dichotomy across the area
as areas plagued by clouds and rain will stay near or below 80
degrees, whereas western areas will surge into the upper 80s to
near 90 with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s with dew
points entering the 70s.

For tonight, the main concern will be a round of organized
showers and thunderstorms entering the forecast area from the
north. A stronger upper jet will move through the northwest flow
over the eastern Great Lakes as a weak shortwave also moves
through with some upper level support. These features should be
enough to generate storms over Lower Ontario this evening. These
storms will continue southeast with the general flow, crossing
Lake Erie and into the forecast area. The air mass across the
area will be fairly unstable with MUCAPE values over 4000 J/kg
and there could be an organized severe threat with an MCS that
could tap into this instability to bring down some strong winds.
The other threat for the overnight would be the possibility for
back building and redevelopment as storms area able to erode the
cap across the region. The environment for rain is conducive for
heavy rainfall with warm cloud depths over 12 kft and
precipitable water values over 2 inches. Backbuilding convection
and training storms could be problematic for flash flooding,
especially if these storms sit over an urban or poor drainage
area. Did briefly mull a Flood Watch for the threat, but will
allow a forecast cycle and some time with the daytime convection
to marinate this need and decision. There is some uncertainty
with entire setup as there is a substantial cap over the area
and storms could not form or dissipate as they enter, but this
is starting to look less likely. Have appropriately bumped up
PoPs across the area and have a large chunk of the forecast area
with categorical PoPs. The best window is during the evening
hours in NW PA and far NE OH and extending south/southwest
through the overnight. The area is outlined in a Slight Risk for
severe weather (from SPC) and excessive rainfall (from WPC),
mainly for tonight.

For Thursday, there is plenty of uncertainty in the forecast at
this time, based on Wednesday night's convection. Believe that
all of the rain and storms should be through the forecast area
by daybreak on Thursday, if not for some residual scattered
showers. However, the ridge moves further east and the bubble of
warmer air and additional moisture will move east into the
area. The question is how far east. Areas of Northwest and
Central Ohio could miss out on the convection on Wednesday
night and they could be easier to heat up into the 90s with dew
points in the 70s. But, if these areas get worked over, it could
be game over for the substantial heat and the need for any heat
headlines. In addition, there is a threat for some additional
shower and thunderstorm development on Thursday afternoon and
into the evening and more information on that is listed in the
short term section below. With this uncertainty, have kept the
Excessive Heat Watch for Ottawa to Marion Counties and west as
is and will allow another forecast cycle to evaluate. Have quite
the gradient in temperatures at this time with upper 70s in NW
PA to mid 90s in NW OH for highs on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An active start to the short term forecast period is anticipated
Thursday evening. A low-amplitude shortwave embedded in west-
northwest flow aloft on the periphery of the large heat dome
centered over the central U.S. is projected to ride out of lower MI
and across our area Thursday evening. At the same time, a weak
surface low pressure is expected to move near or over Lake Erie and
will drag a cold front southeast across our area Thursday night.
Convection, quite possibly organized and strong to severe, is
expected to already be ongoing over our area by Thursday evening or
moving in from the northwest ahead of the approaching cold front.
The placement of stronger convection through our area will depend on
how prior rounds of convection play out, so confidence is still low.

Shear won't be overwhelmingly strong but still sufficient for
organized convection, with a belt of faster flow aloft associated
with the shortwave yielding 25-35 knots of bulk deep-layer shear.
The low-level flow will ramp up into Thursday night and there may be
a bit of backing of surface winds close to the surface low expected
to track near or over Lake Erie, along with near any remnant outflow
boundaries leftover from earlier convection. Once storms re-develop
late Thursday afternoon or evening, quick organization into one or
more clusters, along with potential for a couple transient supercell
structures, is plausible given the amount of shear. Thermodynamics
also appear quite favorable for both a severe weather and heavy rain
threat. An elevated mixed layer (EML) plume will overspread very
warm and humid low levels, leading to potential for strong CAPE. The
EML will also lead to strong theta-e differences and elevated DCAPE.
This suggests that strong cold pool development (and associated
damaging wind potential) is possible with any upscale growing lines
or clusters. Precipitable water values near or over 2.00" to go
along with deep warm cloud depths will yield torrential rain rates
with convection. Moist westerly low-level flow into any organizing
convection Thursday evening and night will support some training or
back-building ahead of the roughly west-east oriented cold front
sagging across the region. The above ingredients are rather
impressive for both a severe weather threat (mainly from damaging
winds, though with isolated large hail and/or a tornado or two not
ruled out) and flash flooding threat (especially if heavy rain
occurs over areas that receive heavier rain tonight). However, this
all will hinge on how earlier rounds of convection play out both
over our area and upstream. Given this, confidence in the exact
evolution isn't high yet. This is evidenced by the SPC and WPC
maintaining Day 2 Marginal Risks for severe weather and excessive
rainfall respectively. The ingredients suggest potential for both
outlooks to ramp up their respective threat levels in future updates
as confidence increases. The main window for convection and an
associated severe/flooding threat appears to be late afternoon
through the evening on Thursday. We may see the severe threat peak
early in the evolution, with flooding concern increasing with time.

We should see a lull in activity overnight Thursday night into
Friday morning as the passing shortwave exits and as convection
overturns and stabilizes the atmosphere. The front may not clear our
inland counties by Friday afternoon and instability will re-develop
ahead of it with daytime heating. With that in mind, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may re-develop across inland
portions of our forecast area Friday afternoon. For now, POPs are
modest because forcing appears weak and as it's possible the front
can clear most or all of our area by Friday, which would shift
renewed convection to our south/east. Low POPs for showers and
perhaps some thunder continue and actually expand for Friday night
and Saturday as the next shortwave moves through the Great Lakes and
pushes a secondary cold front across northern OH and northwestern
PA. It's possible enough moisture and instability are cleared out by
the first front to keep activity fairly limited Friday night into
Saturday, and diurnal timing doesn't appear optimal either. POPs
gradually lower from northwest to southeast by Saturday night with
the expectation that high pressure and cooler, drier air will
gradually wedge in from the northwest behind the secondary front.

Highs on Friday look to generally range from the upper 70s to the
mid 80s with plenty of humidity persisting. A gradual trend towards
cooler temperatures and more comfortable dew points is expected into
the weekend, especially behind the secondary frontal passage late
Friday night or Saturday morning. Saturday should see highs in the
mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows Saturday night quite possibly
dipping into the 50s in parts of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad troughing is expected to be in place over the northeastern
U.S. for the long term portion of the forecast. The prior runs of
the operational ECMWF and its ensemble placed the mean trough axis
to our east, which would place us on the cooler but mainly dry side
of the trough. However, the 0z GFS and CMC models have the mean
trough axis farther west (and a peak at the freshly arrived 0z ECMWF
suggests it is trending that direction as well). This would increase
potential for at least some showery weather for the beginning of
next week as various shortwaves work through the broader trough. Our
starting model blend (NBM) appropriately has a heavy ECMWF ensemble
influence and gave a dry forecast for early next week based on prior
runs. Stuck with it for now, though if the trends on the 0z
operational ECMWF percolate to its ensemble we may see future
forecasts add POPs for early next week. Either way, fairly pleasant
temperatures and humidity levels are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Mid-level VFR ceilings have entered the region this morning and
a few showers over NE OH/NW PA have exited. A complex of
convection has developed over northern Lower Michigan and will
spread southeast this morning. Some scattered showers and storms
may approach the NE OH/NW PA terminals, but believe that it will
be hit or miss enough to keep just a vicinity shower mention for
now. Once this round clears the region, another round of
showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening and present
a more substantial TS and non-VFR threat to the terminals. Have
timed in some initial timing for VCTS and TS in tempo groups,
but an overnight MCS appears likely and will move through most
of the terminals. With any TS impact, expect some gusty winds
and IFR vsby with low ceilings at the terminals. For winds, flow
will be generally southerly with some variability from
southeast to southwest across the area. Gust of 20 to 25 knots
are possible, especially during the afternoon between rounds of
convection.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
Additional non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will slowly lift across western and central Lake Erie
through Thursday ahead of low pressure gradually approaching out of
the Upper Midwest. The front may not completely clear the eastern
basin. Modest southeast winds at less than 15 knots ahead of the
front will turn more southwesterly behind it. These southwest winds
will be breezy at 10-20 knots and will generate chop over the open
waters, with enough of a westerly component at times to bring choppy
conditions to the nearshore waters, especially east of Cleveland.
However, expect conditions to stay short of small craft criteria. Of
greater marine concern will be rounds of showers and thunderstorms
dropping southeast across the lake near the warm front. One round is
dropping across the lake this morning (and should not have much wind
with it), with another round, potentially strong to severe, dropping
across the lake this evening into tonight. Low pressure moves near
Lake Erie Thursday night, dragging a cold front across the lake with
yet another potential round of thunderstorms. Winds will shift
northerly at less than 15 knots behind the front. Thunderstorms
along and ahead of the front late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night could once again be strong to severe.

A secondary cold front crosses the lake Friday night or early
Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears much lower with this
front, though a tighter gradient and more robust cool air advection
behind it will bring north-northeast winds up to 10-20 knots at
times Saturday and Sunday. There is low but non-zero potential for
small craft conditions to be met in parts of the central nearshore
zones behind this secondary front, though the current forecast falls
just short. Even if small craft conditions are not met there will be
chop with the onshore flow. Following this front high pressure will
build in from the north, and no major systems are expected to impact
the lake early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-036.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sullivan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
442 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHZ009>011-019>021-028>032-037-038-047-240845-
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Huron-Medina-Summit-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Wayne-Stark-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
442 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall that may produce localized flooding are possible
this evening through the overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

Heat index values may approach 100 degrees on Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-036-240845-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Wyandot-Marion-
442 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall that may produce localized flooding are possible
this evening through the overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089-PAZ001>003-240845-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Portage-Trumbull-
Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
442 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall that may produce localized flooding are possible
this evening through the overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Thursday. Storms may
produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rain
and/or localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
131 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHZ009>012-019>021-231815-
Summit OH-Huron OH-Erie OH-Lake OH-Medina OH-Lorain OH-Cuyahoga OH-
131 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Huron,
Erie, Medina, Cuyahoga, southwestern Lake, Summit and Lorain Counties
through 215 PM EDT...

At 131 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Lakeline to near Avon Lake
to 6 miles east of Kelleys Island. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rainfall, and pea size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Akron, Lorain, Elyria, Medina, Willowick, Vermilion,
Western Vermilion, Parma, Lakewood, Cuyahoga Falls, Euclid, Cleveland
Heights, Strongsville, Brunswick, Westlake, North Royalton, North
Ridgeville, Kent and Barberton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 8145 4156 8139 4145 8139 4144 8137
      4142 8139 4099 8139 4099 8217 4106 8218
      4107 8238 4139 8254 4138 8248 4143 8227
      4152 8202 4148 8189 4149 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 331DEG 38KT 4171 8157 4153 8196 4158 8258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Iverson