Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
740 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front could linger across the region through much
of the week before shifting offshore or dissipating this
weekend. Low pressure should then prevail across the region
early next week with a front approaching the local area by the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overall, a complex forecast scenario is expected to unfold
today and tonight with multiple rounds of thunderstorms capable
of producing significant severe weather across southeast Georgia
and southeast South Carolina.

Today: Aloft, the forecast area will remain within an
impressive belt of westerlies situated to the south of a deep
upper low tracking from the eastern Great Lakes toward New
England. At the surface, a nearly stationary boundary is
expected to drift a bit further inland become aligned more
across the central and western Carolinas down through north
Georgia. This setup will place the forecast area in a very
warm/moist and unstable environment solidly on the proverbial
train tracks bringing upstream convective clusters right through
the region. Model consensus favors the day starting rain-free
with the first round of thunderstorms developing just upstream.
This first round of thunderstorms should impact mainly the
southern half of the forecast area in the late morning through
early afternoon time period. The question then becomes how does
this first round alter the near storm environment and does it
impact any potential subsequent rounds in the evening and
overnight. With temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s in
the presence of upper 60s and low 70s dewpoints, current
thinking is that the atmosphere should be able to recover
sufficiently to support later rounds and maintain the
significant severe weather risk.

Evening and Overnight: As we move into the evening, the morning
and early afternoon thunderstorm round should be offshore while
the next round is loading up across central Georgia and the
South Carolina Midlands. While the first round could primarily
impact southeast Georgia, this second round could take aim at
the southeast South Carolina area. However, model guidance has
been inconsistent in highlighting either an evening round of
thunderstorms or a late night and early morning round. So, while
confidence is lower in these later times the environment will
remain quite concerning for severe weather. The forecast should
come more into focus following the first round of storms based
on radar trends and evolution.

Severe Weather: The combination of a very unstable airmass and
a few rare and anomalous severe weather parameters will produce
an unusually significant severe weather threat today and
tonight. The SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook includes the
entire forecast area in a Slight Risk, with a newly added
Enhanced Risk for the southern half of the forecast area. 500 mb
winds are progged to be on the order of 50 kt which would at or
near the daily max for 6/14 from the SPC Sounding Climatology.
Similarly, pockets of mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km are
progged which would also quite rare for mid June. CAPE values
are progged to be at or above 2500 J/kg for much of the area
with DCAPE values again in excess of 1000 J/kg, especially for
southeast Georgia. This combination of strong mid- level flow,
bulk shear in the 40-50 knot range, and strong instability will
produce an environment where storms can produce large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and possibly even a tornado. The greatest
threat area will be similar to Tuesday and will include
southeast Georgia across the Savannah River to include Jasper
and Beaufort counties. But unlike Tuesday, there is greater
support for more widespread thunderstorm coverage which will
mean a more expansive severe weather threat for the entire
forecast area. Wind is perhaps the most significant threat,
especially generally along a corridor including I-16 all the way
to the coast. While wind profiles are again mostly
unidirectional, the potential for some embedded supercell-like
structures will result in at least a low end tornado threat.
Unfortunately, confidence in exact timing is low especially in
the evening and overnight period. Therefore, folks need to be
ready and aware for the entire today and tonight periods.

Heavy Rain: Precipitable water values will approach 2 inches at
times through the period and each round of thunderstorms will
be capable of producing impressive rainfall rates. The good news
is that these storms will be quite progressive thanks to the
wind field, meaning that prolonged periods of intense rain are
not expected. However, areas will likely be impacted by multiple
rounds of thunderstorms and the cumulative effect could produce
some minor flooding issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing across
coastal locations, mainly in southeast Georgia, but are expected
to quickly shift offshore within a few hours of daybreak. The
bulk of severe weather potential will shift offshore with this
activity, but there remains a low risk of a stronger
thunderstorm until this occurs. The main concern will then focus
on additional showers and thunderstorms developing across the
region during the afternoon.

Aloft, a mid-lvl low will become centered along the Northeast
coast, continuing to pivot north and away from the region while
another mid-lvl low rounds the western edge of a broad trough
extending across the East Conus, diving south and eventually
nudging any lingering front draped across the local area
offshore heading into the weekend. This mid-upper lvl feature
will be largely responsible for driving h5 vort energy across
the Southeast United States, which helps produce another round
of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening when
encountering the lingering front and ample moisture (PWATS
between 1.75 to 2.00 inches) across the Southeast. Latest
guidance suggests the bulk of precip to occur across southeast
Georgia with even some potential for a few stronger and/or
severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds. The bulk of
shower and thunderstorm activity should then shift offshore
heading through evening hours, ending any remaining concern for
stronger thunderstorms. High temps should range in the mid 80s.
Lows temps should dip into the mid-upper 60s inland to lower 70s
closer to the coast.

Friday and Saturday: Precip coverage should become noticeably
less given the anticipation of any lingering front shifting
offshore early weekend and westerly wind fields in place.
However, few to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
possible as the local area is positioned along the southern edge
of the mid-lvl trough and additional ripples of h5 shortwave
energy encounter moisture across the Southeast United States. A
stronger thunderstorm can not be ruled out each afternoon,
perhaps along/near a seabreeze pinned closer to the southern
South Carolina and southeast Georgia coasts. High temps should
trend warmer, mainly due to less precip coverage and west wind
fields aloft. In general, highs should peak in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Lows should range in the upper 60s inland to low-mid
70s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid-lvl low will gradually track toward the Northeast/Mid-
Atlantic states late weekend, before another mid-lvl low shifts
across the Central United States and potentially becomes cutoff
across the Southeast states. There could be an uptick in precip
coverage early next week as this feature settles over the region
with weak sfc low pressure centered inland. Some guidance
suggests a front to shift toward the local area by Tuesday,
further enhancing precip coverage locally heading in the middle
of next week. A few strong or marginally severe thunderstorms
can not be ruled out each afternoon next week given the setup.

High temps should remain within a few degrees of normal on
Sunday, ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the
coast, but once the low and front is in the vicinity high temps
could be limited to the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows should
range in the upper 60s inland to low-mid 70s near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. The forecast for today and into tonight hinges on
thunderstorm activity. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be
possible, making the forecast quite challenging. The first round
looks like it could impact the terminals by around midday and
through the early afternoon. Confidence in direct impacts is
highest at KSAV and we have brought in VCTS at 16z with a TEMPO
for +TSRA and gusty winds from 17-19z. Thunderstorms will be
possible during this similar time period at KCHS and KJZI, but
we have just carried VCTS for now. After this first round of
storms, another will be possible this evening, especially at
KCHS and KJZI where we carry VCTS until midnight. Then there is
even a third window of time where thunderstorms will be
possible in the early morning hours of Thursday. Strong wind
gusts and reduced visibilities will be the main issues with any
thunderstorms that develop and impact the terminals. Amendments
will almost certainly be needed throughout the day to account
for thunderstorm evolution and radar trends.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely at
the terminals on Thursday, especially at the SAV terminal where
numerous to potentially widespread showers and thunderstorms are
possible during afternoon hours. VFR conditions should then
prevail Friday and Saturday, but brief flight restrictions
remain possible due to diurnal showers/thunderstorms. By Sunday,
the chances of flight restrictions increases due to greater
shower/thunderstorm coverage across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: Outside of thunderstorms, expect elevated
southwest flow across all waters through the period with winds
mostly topping out in the 15-20 knot range. We could see some
gusts up to 25 knots at time, mainly in the Charleston County
waters. We considered a Small Craft Advisory but decided against
it for now. The biggest concern for the local waters will be
multiple rounds of thunderstorms that are expected to move
through later today and tonight. These thunderstorms will be
capable of producing impressive wind gusts at or above 50 knots
along the coast and offshore. The first round will likely move
through portions of the waters this afternoon, with additional
rounds possible this evening and late tonight. Special Marine
Warnings will almost certainly be needed and while the main
threat will be strong wind gusts, hail will also be possible.
Seas should be mostly 2-3 feet today, increasing to 3-5 feet
tonight.

Thursday through Sunday: The main issue across coastal waters
will be the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms around
daybreak Thursday, mainly across Georgia waters for a few hours
before activity shifts further offshore. Otherwise, the pressure
gradient should become more relaxed heading into the weekend
while low pressure becomes centered across the Southeast inland.
Expect conditions to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the weekend with offshore winds on Thursday becoming
more south-southwest during the weekend. Wind speeds should
remain around 15 kt or less. Seas should average between 3-5 ft
on Thursday, then gradually subside to 2-3 ft by late weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
431 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-150845-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
431 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected
to impact southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia today and
tonight. These thunderstorms are expected to be severe and capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and possibly even a
tornado. The first round of storms is expected to move through in the
late morning and early afternoon hours followed by additional rounds
this evening and late tonight. While severe thunderstorms will be
possible across the entire area, the most significant severe weather
threat is expected to be across southeast Georgia and into portions
of southeast South Carolina including Jasper and Beaufort counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-150845-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
431 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected
to impact the southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia coast
and adjacent coastal waters today and tonight. These thunderstorms
will be capable of producing strong wind gusts (possibly 50 knots or
higher), and hail. The first round of thunderstorms is expected to
move through this afternoon followed by additional rounds in the
evening and late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail and damaging winds to the National Weather
Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Charleston SC
843 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Glennville          31.95N  81.93W
06/13/2023                   Tattnall           GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center reported a downed tree across power
            lines on Kicklighter St. Time was estimated via radar
            data.

0604 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Midway              32.03N  81.88W
06/13/2023                   Tattnall           GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center reported a downed tree across the
            roadway along Beards Creek Church Rd. Time was estimated
            via radar data.

0612 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Allenhurst        31.76N  81.59W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center relayed a report of tree down on a
            car along E B Cooper Hwy. No injuries were reported.
            Time was estimated via radar data.

0613 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Walthourville           31.77N  81.63W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center relayed a report of a large tree
            branch down on a car on Talmadge Rd near Busbee Rd.
            There were no injuries. Time was estimated via radar
            data.

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Walthourville           31.77N  81.63W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center reported numerous downed power lines
            in and around the town of Walthourville.

0621 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Crossroads         31.77N  81.50W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center relayed a report of a downed tree on
            power lines which caused live wires to fall onto a
            residential home along the 300 block of Screven Fork Rd.
            Time was estimated via radar data.

0656 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Savannah Airport        32.13N  81.20W
06/13/2023  M51 mph          Chatham            GA   ASOS

            A wind gust of 44 kt was measured at the Savannah
            Airport.

0656 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Savannah Airport        32.13N  81.20W
06/13/2023  M51 mph          Chatham            GA   ASOS

            A wind gust of 44 kt was measured at the Savannah
            Airport.

0731 PM     Lightning        2 SE Gum Branch         31.84N  81.71W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            911 call center reported a lightning strike to a
            residence located on the 1400 block of Ray Rd which
            caught fire. No injuries were reported. Time was
            estimated via lightning data.

0731 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Richmond Hill           31.94N  81.31W
06/13/2023                   Bryan              GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center reported numerous trees down in the
            Richmond Hill area. Time was estimated via radar data.

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     22 ESE Racccon Bluff    31.40N  80.87W
06/13/2023  M54 mph          AMZ354             GA   Buoy

            A wind gust of 47 kt was measured at Buoy 41008.

0810 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE Tybee Island      32.01N  80.81W
06/13/2023  M39 mph          AMZ352             GA   Mesonet

            A wind gust of 34 kt was measured at the Savannah
            Entrance Light Weatherflow station.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS2300545 CHS2300544 CHS2300541 CHS2300539 CHS2300542
CHS2300540 CHS2300534 CHS2300535 CHS2300538 CHS2300543 CHS2300536
CHS2300537

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Charleston SC
847 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Glennville          31.95N  81.93W
06/13/2023                   Tattnall           GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center reported a downed tree across power
            lines on Kicklighter St. Time was estimated via radar
            data.

0604 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Midway              32.03N  81.88W
06/13/2023                   Tattnall           GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center reported a downed tree across the
            roadway along Beards Creek Church Rd. Time was estimated
            via radar data.

0612 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Allenhurst        31.76N  81.59W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center relayed a report of tree down on a
            car along E B Cooper Hwy. No injuries were reported.
            Time was estimated via radar data.

0613 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Walthourville           31.77N  81.63W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center relayed a report of a large tree
            branch down on a car on Talmadge Rd near Busbee Rd.
            There were no injuries. Time was estimated via radar
            data.

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Walthourville           31.77N  81.63W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center reported numerous downed power lines
            in and around the town of Walthourville.

0621 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Crossroads         31.77N  81.50W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center relayed a report of a downed tree on
            power lines which caused live wires to fall onto a
            residential home along the 300 block of Screven Fork Rd.
            Time was estimated via radar data.

0656 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Savannah Airport        32.13N  81.20W
06/13/2023  M51 mph          Chatham            GA   ASOS

            A wind gust of 44 kt was measured at the Savannah
            Airport.

0656 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Savannah Airport        32.13N  81.20W
06/13/2023  M51 mph          Chatham            GA   ASOS

            A wind gust of 44 kt was measured at the Savannah
            Airport.

0731 PM     Lightning        2 SE Gum Branch         31.84N  81.71W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   911 Call Center

            911 call center reported a lightning strike to a
            residence located on the 1400 block of Ray Rd which
            caught fire. No injuries were reported. Time was
            estimated via lightning data.

0731 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Richmond Hill           31.94N  81.31W
06/13/2023                   Bryan              GA   911 Call Center

            A 911 call center reported numerous trees down in the
            Richmond Hill area. Time was estimated via radar data.

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     22 ESE Racccon Bluff    31.40N  80.87W
06/13/2023  M54 mph          AMZ354             GA   Buoy

            A wind gust of 47 kt was measured at Buoy 41008.

0810 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE Tybee Island      32.01N  80.81W
06/13/2023  M39 mph          AMZ352             GA   Mesonet

            A wind gust of 34 kt was measured at the Savannah
            Entrance Light Weatherflow station.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS2300545 CHS2300544 CHS2300541 CHS2300539 CHS2300542
CHS2300540 CHS2300534 CHS2300535 CHS2300538 CHS2300543 CHS2300536
CHS2300537

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston SC
951 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Hinesville          31.82N  81.60W
06/13/2023                   Liberty            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Management reports a tree down on a mobile
            home in Spring Creek. No injuries.

&&

Event Number CHS2300546

JRL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston SC
957 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NNE Ludowici          31.76N  81.73W
06/13/2023                   Long               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Manager reported a tree down on Lanier Rd.

&&

Event Number CHS2300547

JRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
957 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

GAZ099-114-115-141430-
Evans-Candler-Tattnall-
957 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EVANS, CANDLER AND
TATTNALL COUNTIES...

At 955 AM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles north of
Lyons to near Plant Hatch, and moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar Indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Reidsville, Metter, Glennville, Claxton, Hagan, Collins, Cobbtown,
and Bellville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 8223 3237 8196 3232 8194 3227 8196
      3227 8193 3205 8185 3189 8190 3182 8195
      3180 8198 3178 8197 3186 8211 3190 8211
      3189 8213 3191 8213 3190 8219 3192 8222
      3218 8218 3235 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 291DEG 45KT 3229 8230 3198 8231

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH