Storm Warning 5, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
128 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches today and crosses the region tonight.
Intensifying low pressure tracks across Maine Monday and will
draw a cold front across the region Monday evening. High
pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front moves
through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115pm update...Low clouds are spreading eastward and lowering
today through tonight. Fog, freezing drizzle and drizzle
remain the primary concerns for this afternoon, tonight and
Sunday. Freezing drizzle is ongoing in Piscataquis, Penobscot
and southern Aroostook counties. Fog has already developed in
higher terrain. Have made some adjustments to the distribution
and timing of the fog, freezing drizzle and drizzle through the
period.

Also expanded the Flood Watch based on latest trends and
guidance.

Previous Discussion...
Although the weather is relatively quiet today and tonight
compared to what's coming, there are still some concerns...one
being freezing drizzle later today and this evening, and two
being fog tonight.

Today...
Highs clouds are increasing from the west early this morning.
Chilly start to the day with lows ranging from around 10 below
to 15 above. Pretty good inversion with hills warmer than
valleys. Lower cloud deck is still back in far Western Maine,
but this will be progressing NE toward us, moving into western
portions of the area later this morning and into far Eastern
Maine this afternoon. As clouds thicken and lower, there is the
concern for freezing drizzle, as there will be no cloud ice in
the fairly shallow moisture layer, and surface temperatures will
be remaining below freezing inland in a shallow cold layer. Best
threat for freezing drizzle this afternoon appears to be along
the Central Highlands including areas like Greenville, Dover-
Foxcroft, and Millinocket, where the terrain may help squeeze
out the little bit of moisture into some drizzle. Drizzle or
freezing drizzle is possible throughout the whole area though.
Not enough confidence in impacts though to issue any advisories.
Can't rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle in the Bangor
region early to mid afternoon before temperatures sneak above
freezing late afternoon or early evening as warm advection
continues. Coast should be warm enough for just drizzle. Went on
the cool side of guidance for temperatures today, as southerly
push is not strong enough to really erode the cold air at the
surface, and there will be weak cold air damming along/SE of the
mountains.

Tonight...
Warm advection continues from the SW tonight, and temperatures
will slowly rise through the night. Could still be some freezing
drizzle in the mainly in the evening north of Bangor. By dawn
Sunday, expect all areas to be above freezing, with just
drizzle. Fog is the other concern tonight, and a pretty big
concern as we have the perfect ingredients for widespread fog,
possibly dense. We have warm advection over a snowpack that will
be becoming increasingly wet due to temps sneaking above
freezing, and moist low levels with only a light south breeze.
Not enough confidence to issue a dense fog advisory this far in
advance, as it's always hard to tell whether visibility will be
a mile or two vs quarter mile or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday morning will see longwave upr trof pushing east as H5 ridge
axis moves into Atlantic Canada. H5 trof remains pretty neutral as
it approaches the area. Area will be in warm sector during the day
Sunday and will likely see areas of fog and drizzle in the morning
hours before lift associated with approaching slow moving frontal
boundary gives way to stratiform rain by the afternoon hours. Fog
will remain over most of the region with temps and dwpts rising into
the 40s over a melting snowpack.

Latest guidance shows wave of lopres riding along the quasi-
stationary boundary Sun evening with pops increasing twd
categorical acrs wrn areas early in the evening. 00z guidance
has shifted ever so slightly to the west as have their
respective ensemble means. Sunday night features an axis of
heavy rain from about the Dover- Foxcroft area up through
Houlton with 12-hrly qpf amounts ranging between 1.5-1.75
inches, especially in upslope over the Central Highlands. River
ensemble forecasts indicate the Piscataquis River at Dover has a
38% chance of rising above minor flood stage Monday morning.
Regarding the wind potential, the low-level jet axis has shifted
further to the east and with stable layer at the surface the
most likely area to see any damaging wind gusts is also further
east into Washington County on Monday morning. Given the
considerable uncertainty and very low confidence have opted to
leave all headlines as is with Flood Watch for southern and
central Piscataquis County, the High Wind Watch in effect for
Southern Aroostook and points south with a Storm Watch remaining
in effect over all waters.

There is the potential with cold air moving into the northwest
Monday morning that moderate snow may fall over extreme northwest
areas. However, 00z NAM is much further to the west with track of
the sfc low on Monday and takes it along the ME/NH border and up
along the international border in the evening. Solutions from the
deterministic models range from warning snowfall over the northwest
from the GFS to potential for freezing rain with the NAM. All this
to say is that the 00z models have not made fcst any clearer with
this impactful system. Unfortunately the 06z NAM has moved the low
over to the other side of the state with up to 12-18" of snow across
the north and west.

Low departs into ern Canada Mon night with strong cold advection
leading to northwest winds gusting upwards of 30-35 mph at times
overnight. Snow showers continue on the backside acrs the north with
accumulations of up to one inch in the North Woods early. Temps will
drop blo frzg over most of the area by midnight. Any lingering water
on roadways likely to freeze leading to black ice overnight.
However, cannot say with any likelihood as winds may help dry roads
in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold advection continues on Tuesday with nw winds continuing to gust
to near 30 mph in the morning before dropping in the aftn as high
pressure builds in from the west. Highs look to climb above frzg on
the Downeast coast with areas to the north hovering around the
freezing mark. High pressure crests over the region Tue afternoon
before next fast moving system brings chc for snow showers acrs the
north Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

High pressure builds in again for Wednesday night though timing
differs with operational models. Cannot rule out negative single
digit lows across the north on Thursday morning

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR to start the day with just high clouds. However,
lower clouds will invade the area from SW to NE, first arriving
BHB/BGR around 13z. Expect MVFR this afternoon from about HUL
SW. Possibility exists for freezing drizzle midday into the
afternoon for all but the coast. Don't have enough confidence in
it, though, to put in TAFs. Temperatures rise above freezing at
BGR after about 21z which should end the threat there, though
the freezing drizzle threat persists from MLT/GNR north until
late tonight, when temperatures warm above freezing everywhere.
Fog, possibly dense, is also a concern later tonight. Widespread
IFR or lower is likely tonight, with conditions gradually
worsening through the night. Light S/SE winds increasing to 5-10
kts later tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...IFR/LIFR in fog and drizzle at all terminals in the morning
with minor improvement in the afternoon. S 5-10kts gusting to 20-
25kts late.

Sunday night-Monday...IFR/LIFR in heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out
snow at FVE late Monday. S 15-25kts, increasing to 20-35kts Monday
morning with gusts upwards of 50-60kts at BHB. LLWS possible. Cannot
rule out isolated -tsra.

Monday night...MVFR/IFR over northern Aroostook terminals in -shsn.
Improving to VFR at BGR and BHB. W 10-20kts gusts to 25-30kts.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Cannot rule out MVFR over Aroostook
terminals in -shsn. WSW 10-20kts and gusty.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: South winds may approach small craft levels late
tonight. Seas remaining below 5 feet.

SHORT TERM: Storm Watch continues for all waters starting late
Sunday night, continuing into the day on Monday. Wind gusts to
60-65kts are possible, mainly over eastern portions of the
waters as of now. Seas climb to over 20ft on Monday before
diminishing below 10ft Tuesday morning. Winds look to drop below
gales Tuesday morning but SCA level seas continue through the
end of the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Melting snowpack and heavy rainfall to pose a hydrologic threat
across a large portion of Eastern and Northern Maine. Latest
NOHRSC analysis shows generally 2-5 inches across the southern
1/2 of the CWA and 4-10 inches across the northern 1/2 of the
CWA with highest totals in the North Woods and higher terrain of
Baxter. In this snow we generally see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of SWE
that is likely to melt with this upcoming event.

The combination of heaviest rainfall, SWE melting and the
partially frozen grounds corresponds to a flood threat on small
creeks and streams along with the Piscataquis River which is
prone to rapid rises. The terrain in Piscataquis River basin is
likely to add to the threat for rapid rises on that river. The
Northeast River Forecast Center is predicting the Piscataquis at
Dover-Foxcroft to rise to Minor Flood Stage on Monday. Given the
concern for smaller creeks, streams and some smaller rivers to
see rapid rises from rain and snowmelt we have opted to expand
the Flood Watch to include all of Downeast, Central Highlands
into Southern Aroostook County.

Ice is present on some of the rivers but will not be that big
of a concern. There is frazil and pancake ice that has frozen in
place on the St. John and Aroostook River basins along with
other smaller creeks and streams across much of the CWA. This
could move and get lodged against bridges to hold up some water
but not expecting ice to be a huge concern.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high tide near 9am Monday morning represents the biggest
risk for any coastal flooding and wave runup issues. There are
two mitigating factors. First, it is not a particularly high
astronomical tide. Second, peak surge is about 4 to 5 hours
after the high tide based on current projections. In this
scenario, wave runup becomes the primary concern. Seas
approaching 15 ft will be fairly likely to deposit rocks on
roads exposed to the open ocean. That includes Mount Desert
Island locations such as Seawall Road and coastal roads on the
Schoodic Peninsula.

If the timing coincidence between peak surge and the high tide
becomes more favorable, we will have to take a harder look at
surge up the Penobscot River towards Bangor and vulnerable
locations such as the Deer Isle Causeway.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for
     MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
     for MEZ006-011-015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

Near Term...Foisy/MCW
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Foisy/MCW/Buster
Marine...Foisy/MCW/Buster
Hydrology...Sinko
Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
222 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-092130-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,
Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,
Mars Hill, Ashland, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park,
Chamberlain Lake, Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Millinocket,
East Millinocket, Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman,
Smyrna Mills, Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln, Howland,
Springfield, Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst, Aurora,
Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond, Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley,
Princeton, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro,
and Topsfield
222 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

...Freezing Drizzle...

Areas of freezing drizzle have created a coating of ice, which
will result in very slippery conditions. Portions of I-95
southbound have been closed between Carmel and Newport. Avoid
travel or drive very slowly and carefully if you must go out.