Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
555 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the forecast area this evening
and early tonight along with showers and possibly strong to
severe thunderstorms. The front will move offshore Friday
morning with below normal temperatures and drier conditions
expected for Friday through the weekend as a trough digs over
the eastern US. Ridging builds in early next week as
temperatures return to above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Update...main term concern is severe threat with possible
tornadoes. Tornado Watch in effect until 10pm for much of the
FA including Columbia and Augusta metro areas. Initial band of
storms over the CSRA currently, shifting NE into the NW
Piedmont of SC. Another, larger prefrontal line of storms to
the west stretching from the Upstate SC southwest across East
Central GA to SW GA, moving rapidly east. Some thought that the
storms could gradually weaken as they move east into more
unstable air, but bow echo west of the CSRA will provide concern
of damaging straight line winds this evening, with possible
tornado threat.

Latest radar loops and hi res models suggest the precipitation
to move out of our FA after midnight, with the main front to
move through late tonight, followed by a wind shift to NW and
cooler and drier air filtering in. Breezy conditions ahead of
the front providing wind gusts near Lake Wind Advisory criteria.
LWA in effect until 1AM. Will evaluate later this evening
whether the LWA needs to be expanded into late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be moving offshore and away from the area Friday
morning with the upper level trough slowly crossing the area
Friday night and Saturday. Cooler and drier air will be moving
into the area as the front moves offshore with reinforcing
colder and drier air as the upper trough clears the region. Pwat
values will fall to 0.5 inches Friday afternoon with the
majority of the moisture between 5 and 10 kft. By Saturday
afternoon pwat values will reach 0.3 inches with northerly flow
pushing colder air into the forecast area. Temperatures Friday
will range from the low 50s in the western Midlands to the upper
50s in the eastern Midlands. Even with some low level moisture
and clouds persisting Friday night temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal with low 30s for most areas. With the
northerly flow and cold air advection Saturday high temperatures
will be limited to the upper 40s to around 50s and with
excellent radiational cooling conditions Saturday night low will
be well below normal with mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level pattern will remain progressive through the
long term with systems crossing the region ever couple days.
High pressure centered well north of the forecast area on Sunday
will keep cool and dry air in place for one more day then move
offshore Monday as the next low pressure system marches through
the central MS River area. Monday evening southerly slow will be
increasing across the SE US ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect showers to begin Monday evening as the front pushes into
the region with the front stalling over the southern portions of
the forecast area Tuesday evening. For Wednesday and beyond
model solutions continue to diverge with confidence in the
forecast low. What can be determined is moisture will remain
across the region and with the progressive upper level pattern
and potential for another from moving into the region Thursday a
few showers will be possible Wednesday with increasing potential
for Thursday. Temperatures will be below normal Sunday then warm
to above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings predominately VFR, and expected to continue except for
TEMPO MVFR associated with thunderstorms as a vigorous cold
front passes through the region from west to east tonight.
Severe TS producing a couple of tornadoes has occurred west and
northwest of KAGS/KDNL. Expect rapid weakening after sunset,
however TS possible at KAGS/KDNL 23-03Z, and VCTS at KCAE/KCUB
01-04Z. As the front moves through the terminals winds shift
from southerly to westerly but should maintain gusts between 15
to 20 kts overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of rain and associated
restrictions late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
344 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-130845-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
344 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Wind Advisory.

In addition, Showers and storms are expected ahead of an approaching
cold front, with some strong to severe storms possible. Damaging
winds and even isolated tornadoes will be possible. SPC has outlined
the western Midlands and a majority of the CSRA in a Slight Risk for
severe storms because of this.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW THOMSON           33.48N 82.59W
01/12/2023                   MCDUFFIE           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN AND SHINGLES LIFTED OFF ROOFS
            ALONG FOSTER SPROUSE ROAD.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
508 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             6 WNW MISTLETOE STATE P 33.68N 82.49W
01/12/2023  E0.70 INCH       LINCOLN            GA   PUBLIC

            DIME-SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN AMITY, GA.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
526 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NW MODOC              33.73N 82.24W
01/12/2023                   MCCORMICK          SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ROTATING WALL CLOUD
            WITH FUNNEL OVER LAKE STROM THURMOND MOVING
            NORTHEAST TOWARDS MODOC.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
553 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NNW THOMSON           33.53N 82.52W
01/12/2023                   MCDUFFIE           GA   PUBLIC

            PHOTO OF FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THOMSON/MCDUFFIE
            COUNTY AIRPORT ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DA