Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
248 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves into the area late today producing scattered
storms with a marginal severe risk. The front will stall across
the area keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the weekend. Increasingly zonal flow and rising heights
with decreasing chances for rain early next week in addition to
temperatures around average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level low will dig into the Deep South today. An
associated cold front and pre-frontal trough will serve as
triggers for convection this afternoon. Ahead of the low, a weak
capping inversion and PWAT values less than 1.5 inches will
largely prevent convection into the early afternoon over central
SC and the CSRA. This will lead to moderate destabilization
from diabatic heating but coverage should be limited until at
least the late afternoon when the pre-frontal trough and upper
support will near the forecast area. There is a large spread
between HREF members in regards to the location of convective
initiation but are in good agreement with the timing for storms
in the late afternoon. By this time we should see the capping
inversion break and moisture increase ahead of the front. Storms
that develop before loss of heating will have the potential to
be severe given the moderate instability and dry air aloft.
Isolated downburst winds will be the main threat due to weak
shear and inverted V forecast soundings. Moderate storm movement
and relatively dry air will limit the threat of flash flooding.
Highs today will be a few degrees above normal with warm
advection ahead of the front.

As we head into the evening the better upper support will push
south leading to NVA over the area as the air mass stabilizes.
These factors favor diminishing convection into the evening
however there may be a few lingering showers or thunderstorms as
the front moves into the FA. Lows overnight in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The front will be stalled over eastern Georgia and the
Carolinas Friday morning. The upper low will be just south of
the area causing better support of convection to remain to our
south. Although some shortwaves are progged to cross the area
early better convergence will be to our east and our south. HREF
members agree with this, showing isolated to scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Best instability and lift will
mainly be in the eastern Midlands so kept chance PoPs along this
area though coverage looks to be more isolated. A weak shortwave
will move through South Carolina late Friday night keeping a low
chance showers/thunderstorms in overnight.

The deepening trough will force the upper low north Saturday and
will produce stronger lift and forcing in comparison to Friday.
Moisture will be on the higher side as well with a swath of
1.8-2inch pwat values moving in from the south. Increasing
divergence aloft and onshore flow along with deep moisture.
Expect our best chances of rain, possibly widespread, during the
day Saturday. With moderate to strong upper forcing continuing
overnight so will chances for showers and storms. With upper
troughing in place over the Southeast, expect cooler conditions,
generally in the mid-80s for highs and mid-60s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Early next week, the diffuse boundary will keep moisture
elevated across the region though closer to 1.25, around average
for this time of year. At the same time heights will start to
rise and a more zonal pattern will replace the deep troughing.
Some weak shortwaves and moisture convergence may produce
showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnal, but confidence is low
in timing. From there, the pattern becomes increasingly more
active. There is good agreement in ensembles mid week, showing a
deep low developing in or just west of the Great Lakes region.
Deep southwesterly flow will shift deeper moisture over the area
prompting chance showers towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level low and frontal boundary will dig into the Deep
South today. Expect scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
however confidence in the location of the highest convective
coverage is limited. So we have included VCTS at all TAF sites
until confidence increases. We will see convection diminish
during the evening but there may be a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms overnight as the front moves through. Coverage
should be too low to include mention of showers overnight.
Patchy fog may be possible tonight, especially if the terminals
receive rainfall today. The potential for convection continues
tomorrow as the front stalls across the area. Highest coverage
is expected to be in the east where moisture will be deeper.
Expect light SW winds today and light S winds tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms
continue over the weekend with lower coverage for Monday.
Patchy late night/early morning fog and/or stratus possible
through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
341 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-080745-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
341 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into the
evening. Damaging winds and large Hail threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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