Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
203 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday night...

Satellite imagery shows an amplified trof from WA to CA and
southerly flow over the central and northern Rockies. We are
starting to see convection develop in northern WY and to a lesser
extent along the Beartooth Foothills, but mesoanalysis shows
enough CIN to hold back the risk of stronger storms for maybe a
couple more hours. MLCapes are analyzed to be 500-1000 j/kg across
the eastern two-thirds of our cwa, while instability is lower
along our western foothills w/ downsloping west winds.

Expect scattered t-storms to develop by 22z and track SSW-NNE thru
our cwa thru the evening. Greatest bulk shear is in our far NW
(near 30 knots) while most of our cwa is seeing only 20-25 knots.
Bulk shear is lowest in our east, but there is some enhanced low
level shear east of surface trof extending from Rosebud to
Sheridan Counties. As a result, it appears the entire cwa will
need to be monitored for potentially strong storms. Risks are
heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds...but cannot rule out one
or two severe storms.

Later tonight, another wave lifting out of the great basin should
help to extend the potential for showers and weak t-storms
overnight. Thursday morning should be dry, but by midday we expect
the next round of wet convection to begin.

Pwats should reach or slightly exceed an inch by tomorrow,
resulting in widespread 1000 j/kg of cape per today's HREF. Shear
should be slightly higher than today but still modest at 25-30
knots. Forcing will also be a bit stronger as our heights are
reduced by another weak shortwave embedded in the southerly flow.
Overall, we anticipate another active day of showers & t-storms on
Thursday with a slightly greater chance of severe wx (this
includes the Billings metro area). SPC has updated their day2
outlook to marginal. Even w/o severe storms, pockets of very heavy
rain seem to be a certainty w/ any stronger storms.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal,
but highs on Thursday will be a little cooler than today (70s to
lower 80s...warmest east).

JKL

Friday through Wednesday...

Models generally agree on an unsettled weather pattern over the
Northern Rockies through Wednesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will
be in place with disturbances moving through the flow over the
area. At the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern US
should facilitate southeasterly flow across the central US that
transports moist air in the lower levels to our area. This
combination of features likely will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Precipitable water values should be around 0.75 to
1.00 inches, so storms likely will be capable of producing
localized heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds and small hail. Stay
tuned to the forecast through this weekend as we refine the
forecast and provide more details on potential thunderstorm
hazards each day.

High temperatures will generally be in the 70s through Sunday then
70s to lower 80s Monday through Wednesday. RMS/Archer

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and t-storms will produce local/brief MVFR-IFR
conditions late this afternoon and evening. Storms are capable of
producing heavy rain, small hail and erratic wind gusts. All TAF
sites are at risk of seeing a t-storm. VFR will otherwise prevail
late tonight and Thursday morning. More showers and t-storms are
expected to develop beginning around 19z tomorrow. There is a
small risk of localized fog late tonight, depending on where
rainfall occurs, but confidence is quite low at this time. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/074 053/072 055/073 053/075 054/079 055/079 056/080
    57/T    68/T    88/T    55/T    24/T    24/T    24/T
LVM 048/072 048/069 049/071 047/073 049/075 049/077 049/079
    48/T    49/T    69/T    46/T    35/T    34/T    25/T
HDN 054/076 054/075 054/075 052/075 052/080 053/080 054/082
    66/T    67/T    88/T    66/T    24/T    34/T    24/T
MLS 059/079 057/078 058/076 056/074 055/080 057/081 057/081
    73/T    65/T    77/T    75/T    33/T    22/T    23/T
4BQ 057/080 056/079 056/076 054/073 054/080 055/080 056/080
    55/T    55/T    66/T    65/T    23/T    23/T    23/T
BHK 057/082 056/078 056/077 053/075 053/078 054/080 054/079
    35/T    55/T    67/T    76/T    33/W    23/T    23/T
SHR 051/074 050/073 050/073 048/071 047/076 049/076 050/078
    56/T    57/T    68/T    56/T    24/T    34/T    35/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

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