Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Billings, MT

383 
WGUS75 KBYZ 070025
FFSBYZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
625 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

MTC095-097-070300-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230607T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stillwater MT-Sweet Grass MT-
625 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING 
FOR NORTH CENTRAL STILLWATER AND NORTHEASTERN SWEET GRASS COUNTIES...

At 625 PM MDT, thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned 
area have moved east, but flood water remain a threat. Between 2 and 
4 inches of rain fell. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to 
begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, highways,
         and other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Rural roads
         may become impassable.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of North Central Stillwater and Northeastern 
  Sweet Grass Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles. Do not drive on or attempt to cross 
flooded roads, find an alternate route. Roads and driveways may be 
damaged or washed out in places.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency officials and 
request they pass the information to the National Weather Service in 
Billings.

&&

LAT...LON 4596 10951 4602 10948 4604 10941 4608 10937
      4610 10930 4607 10923 4595 10928 4586 10941

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Reimer

201 
WGUS75 KBYZ 070252
FFSBYZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
852 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

MTC095-097-070302-
/O.EXP.KBYZ.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230607T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stillwater MT-Sweet Grass MT-
852 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTH CENTRAL STILLWATER AND NORTHEASTERN SWEET GRASS COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. However, minor flooding may still be 
occurring. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 300 AM MDT Wednesday for 
portions of central and south central Montana.

LAT...LON 4596 10951 4602 10948 4604 10941 4608 10937
      4610 10930 4607 10923 4595 10928 4586 10941

$$

Vertz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
100 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday morning...

Main threats for the short term revolve around the potential for
additional heavy rain with thunderstorms over the next few days,
as well as the flows on the Musselshell river which is near
bankfull from Shawmut to Lavina at this time.

No major changes to the forecast pattern over the short term.
Omega blocking pattern remains in place with upper ridge over the
NC Plains states into SC Canada and upper lows over California and
over the east coast. This block will allow for Gulf of
Mexico/Plains moisture to continue to be pumped into the area over
the next week, keeping the threat for heavy rain with
showers/thunderstorms in play. The best periods for heavy
precipitation in the short term will be this afternoon through
late tonight, and then again on Thursday. Ridge flops westward
some on Wednesday which may cap off storms to isolated coverage over
the lower elevations as far west as Billings and Roundup,
providing a break for some areas that have seen heavy rain
recently. However its certainly not a dry forecast. By Thursday
storms begin to make it further east into SE Montana as the
California upper low presses northeastward into the Great Basin
and pushes a few disturbances our way. As these disturbances
arrive the low level flow turns easterly advecting in more plains
moisture for a favorable upslope flow into the western half of
the area, boosting heavy precipitation chances again.

Thunderstorms won't hit every location in the watch tonight, but
those areas that do get hit have a high probability for flash
flooding with saturated ground and very heavy rainfall from slow
moving storms. Where it took several days to produce the heavy
rain last weekend, it will only take an hour or two to produce 1
to 2+ inches of rain with these storms tonight. The same scenario
is likely with storms Thursday, with a lessor chance Wednesday as
described above.

Thunderstorm timing for Billings area...6pm to 10pm this evening.

As noted in the previous discussion will continue the Flood Watch
for the Musselshell river from Shawmut to Lavina until further
notice to account for the near bankfull conditions currently, and
the potential for additional precipitation upstream that may push
the river over flood stage going forward.

Will most likely need additional Flood/Flash Flood Watches for
later in the week (Thu/Fri/psbl Sat). Will let the current
iteration play out so we don't confuse anyone on timing and push
the decision to the midnight shift to handle once the current
watch expires. Chambers

Friday through Tuesday...

Overall the extended continues with only some small shifts in the
rainfall amounts, especially through Friday Night. Friday and
Friday night still look to be possible one of the wetter periods
in the forecast as the low-level flow will be out of the east,
thus producing good upslope, and still very moisture rich. The
main take away is that conditions are still favorable for heavy
rain on already saturated soils. Runoff could occur very quickly
leading to ponding of water and flooding of low lying areas.

Precipitable water values will remain 1.0 to 1.2 inches. While
the changes in the 24 hour total ending at 6 AM Saturday in the
NBM mean are only 0.1 to 0.2 of an inch, the upper range, 90th
percentile, has come up by around a half inch from yesterday. The
heaviest amounts will be from Billings west towards the western
foothills. Amounts are still generally in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch
range. However, with plenty of convective energy, significantly
higher localized rain amounts are possible.

Saturday onward, the precipitable water values will drop below an
inch, though staying above 0.8 of an inch. Also the ridge to the
east will finally start to break down as a wave moves through
Canada. With the flow pattern disrupted some the activity will not
be a widespread, mainly focus in the higher terrain, and with not
be as productive with rain amounts. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

More showers and thunderstorms will continue through 06Z across
much of southern MT and northern WY. These storms will produce
localized MVFR to IFR conditions. A few storms from KBIL west
could produce heavy rainfall with some LIFR. Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/081 059/082 058/079 059/072 056/076 056/077 057/076
    64/T    57/T    67/T    78/T    44/T    25/T    46/T
LVM 053/079 054/078 053/077 054/075 054/073 052/074 052/073
    46/T    59/T    77/T    57/T    57/T    38/T    57/T
HDN 058/083 059/085 058/081 059/075 055/079 055/080 055/077
    44/T    45/T    58/T    78/T    33/T    14/T    46/T
MLS 063/088 064/089 064/084 061/077 056/082 058/083 059/081
    11/U    34/T    47/T    75/T    11/U    12/T    34/T
4BQ 060/087 061/087 061/084 059/073 053/077 056/080 056/080
    12/T    34/T    48/T    77/T    22/W    12/T    35/T
BHK 059/089 060/088 060/083 056/075 049/078 052/082 056/082
    01/U    13/T    46/T    63/W    10/U    01/U    23/T
SHR 054/080 054/082 054/079 054/071 051/074 051/077 051/074
    35/T    56/T    57/T    58/T    44/T    14/T    36/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Flood Watch in effect through late tonight FOR ZONES
      29-34-42-56-63-66-68-141-170-172-228-235.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
200 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

MTZ138-WYZ199-062045-
Southern Big Horn MT-Sheridan Foothills WY-
200 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Big
Horn and northwestern Sheridan Counties through 245 PM MDT...

At 159 PM MDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm 11 miles
northeast of Ranchester, or 17 miles north of Sheridan. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Public and doppler radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Big
Horn and northwestern Sheridan Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. Theis type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4491 10698 4492 10719 4521 10722 4519 10680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 187DEG 4KT 4504 10703

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Vertz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
222 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

MTZ034-141-062045-
Northern Stillwater MT-Northern Sweet Grass MT-
222 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Stillwater and eastern Sweet Grass Counties through 245 PM MDT...

At 221 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles south of Ryegate, or 24 miles north of Columbus, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rapelje.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4604 10919 4586 10936 4602 10951 4605 10947
      4604 10942 4607 10942 4608 10941 4613 10932
      4613 10930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 056DEG 8KT 4598 10935

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Reimer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
224 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

MTZ139-171-062115-
Southeastern Carbon MT-Pryor/Northern Bighorn Mountains MT-
224 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Carbon
County through 315 PM MDT...

At 223 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Frannie, or 17 miles northwest of Lovell, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, half inch hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4500 10880 4507 10884 4516 10855 4503 10846
      4500 10849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 052DEG 7KT 4505 10859

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Vertz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
227 PM MDT Tue Jun 06 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     Funnel Cloud     5 NE Ranchester         44.99N 107.10W
06/06/2023                   Sheridan           WY   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reported picture of funnel cloud.

&&

ARTHUR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
252 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

MTZ034-141-062145-
Northern Stillwater MT-Northern Sweet Grass MT-
252 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Stillwater and east central Sweet Grass Counties through 345 PM
MDT...

At 252 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles north of Columbus, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, penny size hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Stillwater and east central Sweet Grass Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4604 10936 4589 10927 4575 10955 4600 10960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 060DEG 9KT 4594 10938

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Vertz