Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

788 
WWUS41 KBUF 181439
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
939 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

NYZ019-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.231218T2200Z-231219T1500Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
939 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10
  inches across the Chautauqua Ridge, with much lower amounts
  close to Lake Erie. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce
  some blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Chautauqua county. Greatest snowfall along the
  Chautauqua Ridge.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening
  commute and especially the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-085-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.231218T2200Z-231219T1500Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
939 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches
  across higher terrain.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.
  Greatest snow amounts across the Boston Hills, ridges of western
  Wyoming County, and the higher terrain of western and northern
  Cattaraugus County.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  evening commute and especially the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.231219T0200Z-231219T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
939 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
  with locally 5 inches just south of Lake Ontario. Winds gusting
  as high as 30 mph will produce some blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-004-014-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.231219T0600Z-231219T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Canandaigua
939 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
  with locally 5 inches just south of Lake Ontario and in the
  Bristol Hills. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce 
  some blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel

942 
WWUS41 KBUF 182040
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
340 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

NYZ019-190445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.231218T2200Z-231219T1500Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
340 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches across the Chautauqua Ridge, with much lower amounts 
  close to Lake Erie. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce
  some blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Chautauqua county. Greatest snowfall along the 
  Chautauqua Ridge.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered 
  roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will 
  impact the evening commute and especially the Tuesday morning 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-085-190445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.231218T2200Z-231219T1500Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
340 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches
  across higher terrain.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. 
  Greatest snow amounts across the Boston Hills, ridges of 
  western Wyoming County, and the higher terrain of western and 
  northern Cattaraugus County.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and 
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  evening commute and especially the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-190445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.231219T0200Z-231219T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
340 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches with locally 5 inches just south of Lake Ontario. Winds 
  gusting as high as 30 mph will produce some blowing snow in 
  open areas.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-004-014-190445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.231219T0600Z-231219T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Canandaigua
340 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches with locally 5 inches just south of Lake Ontario and in 
  the Bristol Hills. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will 
  produce some blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

585 
WWUS41 KBUF 190323
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1023 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

NYZ019-191130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
1023 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches 
  across the Chautauqua Ridge, with much lower amounts close to 
  Lake Erie. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce some 
  blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Chautauqua county.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the 
  Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-085-191130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1023 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across 
  higher terrain.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.
  Greatest snow amounts across the Boston Hills, ridges of western
  Wyoming County, and the higher terrain of western and northern
  Cattaraugus County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads and
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact Tuesday 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-191130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
1023 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches with 
  locally 5 inches just south of Lake Ontario. Winds gusting as 
  high as 30 mph will produce some blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-004-014-191130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.231219T0600Z-231219T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Canandaigua
1023 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches
  with locally 5 inches just south of Lake Ontario and in the 
  Bristol Hills. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce some
  blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA

499 
WWUS41 KBUF 190821
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
321 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

NYZ019-191500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
321 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches will bring storm totals into the 7 to 11 inch range along
  the Chautauqua Ridge, with much lower amounts near Lake Erie and
  farther inland. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce
  some blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Chautauqua county. Greatest accumulations across the
  Chautauqua Ridge.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with
  reduced visibility. The morning commute will be impacted by 
  snow and slippery roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-085-191500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
321 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches will
  bring storm totals into the 4 to 7 inch range across higher
  terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce some
  blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. The
  greatest snow accumulations will be found across the Boston
  Hills, ridges of western Wyoming County, and the higher terrain
  in northern and western Cattaraugus County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with
  reduced visibility. The morning commute will be impacted by snow
  and slippery roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-191500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
321 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will
  bring totals into the 2 to 4 inch range. Winds gusting as high
  as 35 mph will produce some blowing snow in open areas.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.
  Greatest snow amounts expected north and east of Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with
  reduced visibility. The morning commute will be impacted by snow
  and slippery roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-004-014-191630-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-231219T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Canandaigua
321 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce some blowing snow in open
  areas.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with
  reduced visibility. The morning commute will be impacted by snow
  and slippery roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

872 
WWUS41 KBUF 191434
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
934 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

NYZ019-191545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
934 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Any additional accumulation will be less than an inch.

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-020-085-191545-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-231219T1500Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
934 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Any additional accumulation will be less than an inch.

$$

NYZ003-004-014-191800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-231219T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Canandaigua
934 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations around an inch. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will result in areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
328 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure moving north along the eastern seaboard will
bring heavy rain to Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region
through midday, with light rain extending back to the Genesee Valley
and just scattered showers in Western NY. A trough will then cross
the area late today through Tuesday morning, with rain changing to
accumulating lake enhanced snow as much colder air briefly moves
into the region. Snow will end from west to east Tuesday, with high
pressure then bringing dry weather Wednesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Radar imagery showing a solid shield of rain streaming north across
Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region early this morning,
with the western edge of the rain along a line from Olean to Batavia
and Brockport. The western edge of the rain shield will remain in
place through daybreak before starting to retreat eastward.

A period of moderate to heavy rain will move north across the
eastern Lake Ontario region this morning, driven by strong ascent
from a coupled upper level jet structure and strong upper level
divergence atop strong low/mid level frontogenesis and deformation.
A plume of strong Atlantic moisture transport continues to feed into
the system as the surface low moves north. Rain totals are still
expected to reach the 1.50"-2.25" range east of Lake Ontario, with
the highest amounts across the southern Tug Hill and western
foothills of the Adirondacks from upslope enhancement. The heaviest
rain will be over by midday, with light rain gradually tapering off
from southwest to northeast this afternoon.

Meanwhile farther west, light to moderate rain will fall through mid
morning along the Genesee Valley, with nothing more than a few
spotty light showers across far western NY. By this afternoon our
focus transitions to the strong northern stream trough approaching
from the west.

A strong mid level trough and embedded closed mid level circulation
will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday morning,
providing a period of organized ascent and deep moisture. Strong
cold advection will arrive late today and tonight, allowing for a
change to snow. The changeover to snow will begin as soon as early
afternoon across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier,
with all snow by late afternoon. The transition to snow will
progress to the lower elevations of Western NY by early to mid
evening, then head east across the Genesee Valley to the eastern
Lake Ontario region overnight.

Synoptic scale forcing and deep moisture will support a period of
widespread light snow crossing the area from west to east tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Increasingly cold northwest flow will
allow for lake enhancement and upslope enhancement to be
superimposed on the synoptic scale environment, supporting locally
higher snowfall totals southeast of the lakes. Forecast soundings
show a deep saturated dendritic growth zone overnight through early
Tuesday morning, supporting a transition to higher snow:water ratios
after a slushy start this evening.

The best juxtaposition of synoptic scale forcing, lake enhancement,
and upslope will focus along the Chautauqua Ridge, where local
accumulations of 7-10 inches are expected. Accumulations of 4-7
inches will surround this area from the Boston Hills to the ridges
of western Wyoming County to northern/western Cattaraugus County.

Lake Ontario lake enhancement will develop as well overnight through
Tuesday morning, first west of Rochester later this evening, then
transitioning east along the shoreline late tonight through Tuesday
morning. Expect a general 2-4" south of Lake Ontario with local 5"
amounts in the most persistent lake enhancement just inland from
Lake Ontario, and also across the Bristol Hills.

East of Lake Ontario, the period of snow and lake enhancement is
shorter, with 1-3" expected and local 4" amounts in a small area on
the northwest side of the Tug Hill Plateau.

With all the above in mind, upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning in
Chautauqua County, with a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the
rest of Western NY and the south shore of Lake Ontario from
Wayne/Ontario counties westward across Rochester to the Niagara
Frontier. Snowfall amounts in much of the advisory area are low end
or even a little below criteria, but the worst travel conditions
will be during the Tuesday morning commute, and falling temperatures
through the event will likely result in very slick travel. The
expected travel impacts justify the Advisory even if some areas fall
short of 4". There will be just enough wind (northwest gusts 20-30
mph) to support some limited blowing snow in open areas late
tonight through Tuesday morning.

The snow will quickly end from west to east from mid morning through
early afternoon Tuesday as deep moisture rapidly exits and is
replaced by a building surface ridge and dry air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering lake snow off the lakes should be limited to southeast
of Lake Ontario on Tuesday night. This lake response off of the
southeast portion of Lake Ontario will linger, but weaken as the mid-
level trough pushes away from the region and ridging increases
across the area from the west. Warming temperatures aloft will also
help reduce the lake response off of the lakes. Winds out of the
northwest will shift to the west and then the west-southwest through
the night and into the morning on Wednesday morning. This will cause
what little lake effect is remaining to shift north through the
night and into the morning. A general westerly flow over the longer
fetch of the lake will help keep the lake response going through the
morning. Any lake response that continues into Wednesday afternoon
should be mainly in the form of flurries and the overall response
off the lake should continue to weaken. Any snow that falls
southeast to east of Lake Ontario should be light with little to no
accumulations for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

With the ridge continuing to build into the region, can expect dry
weather for Wednesday night to end of the period.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for Wednesday in the
low 30s to low 40s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations.
Nigh time lows for both Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be in the
upper teens to upper 20s, with Wednesday night being a few degrees
warmer than Tuesday night. Also a few degrees above the normal lows
for these nights as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still plenty of uncertainty with a weak system that may pass over
the area for Friday night and early Saturday as a shortwave trough
crosses within the overall large ridge. Only the GFS keeps it
organized enough to produce any precip., and other guidance has the
system either non-existent, or breaks down before crossing into the
area. After this, guidance is in general agreement that high
pressure moves into the region, providing a quiet few days through
the weekend. Went with mainly slight chance POPs and a few small
areas of chance POPs for Friday night and Sat morning.

Temperatures for the long term period will be near to a few degrees
above normal for Thurs/Fri, and warm to around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An expansive shield of moderate to heavy rain will continue to
stream north through Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region
through this morning, resulting in widespread MVFR/IFR VSBY in rain.
The western edge of steadier rain will be found along or just west
of a KELZ to KROC line through mid morning. Meanwhile across Western
NY, expect just a few scattered showers and drizzle through mid
morning. MVFR/IFR CIGS will become widespread through the early
morning hours.

The large shield of rain will end from southwest to northeast from
late morning through mid afternoon. Meanwhile, another area of rain
showers will move back into Western NY by late morning and continue
through the afternoon. The rain will mix with and change to wet snow
across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier by mid to
late afternoon, with the change to snow then progressing to the
lower elevations of Western NY by mid evening. Light snow will
become widespread overnight, with embedded areas of steadier lake
enhanced snow southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with
widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS and IFR VSBY. There may be a few periods of
moderate snow with VSBY down to 1/2SM overnight through early
Tuesday morning southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Widespread IFR in snow early, tapering off and ending
from west to east mid morning through mid afternoon with
improvement to VFR once the snow ends.

Wednesday through Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure will move quickly north across New England
today, reaching Quebec tonight. West to northwest winds will
increase this morning as the low passes by, with solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions developing on both lakes. The elevated winds and
waves will continue through Tuesday before diminishing from west to
east late Tuesday and Tuesday night as a ridge of high pressure
builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall totals of 1.5" to 2.25" are expected across the eastern
Lake Ontario region from late yesterday through this afternoon.
There was very little snow to melt across the higher terrain,
with runoff generally limited to rainfall only. The heaviest
rain will fall through mid to late morning, and will likely
result in minor flooding in poor drainage areas.

Rivers and creeks will also see rises today through the early
week period, with the Black River and Moose Rivers expected to
crest in action stage, but below minor flood stage.

Rainfall amounts and river levels will continue to be monitored,
but impacts from the rain are expected to be minor and limited
to typical poor drainage areas and lowlands along rivers and
creeks.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ003-004-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ012-020-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
         Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10
         AM EST Tuesday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         Tuesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
         Wednesday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         Tuesday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
215 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-181915-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
215 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rain will change to snow Monday night and continue through Tuesday
morning. A general 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is expected, with
local amounts of up to 4 inches in lake enhancement south of Lake
Ontario.

The combination of accumulating snow and temperatures falling
quickly below freezing will result in slippery travel, including the
Tuesday morning commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-181915-
Chautauqua-
215 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-085-181915-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
215 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rain will change to snow late Monday afternoon or evening, with
accumulating lake enhanced snow lasting through Tuesday morning.
Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected across the higher
terrain east of Lake Erie.

The combination of accumulating snow and temperatures falling
quickly below freezing will result in slippery travel, including the
Tuesday morning commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-181915-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
215 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A period of moderate to heavy rain is expected later tonight through
midday Monday. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be in the 1.50 to
2.25 inch range east of Lake Ontario. These rainfall amounts may
result in minor flooding in poor drainage areas and rises along
rivers and creeks, but the chance of more impactful flooding is
relatively low.

Rain will change to snow Monday night and continue through Tuesday
morning. A general 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is expected.

The combination of accumulating snow and temperatures falling
quickly below freezing will result in slippery travel, including the
Tuesday morning commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-181915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
215 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel