Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Warnings in 2023

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 22, 2023Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm warning at Feb 22, 2023, 3:23 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It took effect at Feb 22, 2023, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 14 hr. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 22, 2023, 3:23 AM EST (08:23 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 22, 2023, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 23, 2023, 9:25 AM EST
In force
14 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 23, 5:00 AM ESTSNOW 51 Nw Constableville, NYCOCORAHS STATION NY-LW-3 CONSTABLEVILLE 1.2 NW.
Feb 23, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.45 W Constableville, NYCO-OP OBSERVER STATION HGHN6 HIGHMARKET 2W.
Feb 23, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 6.25 N Brantingham, NYCO-OP OBSERVER STATION GFDN6 CHASES LAKE.
Feb 23, 7:00 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.252 Nw Constableville, NY
Feb 23, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.5West Carthage, NYCOCORAHS STATION NY-JF-30 WEST CARTHAGE 0.3 ENE.
Feb 23, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 61 Ne Lowville, NYCO-OP OBSERVER STATION LOWN6 LOWVILLE.
Feb 23, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 6Theresa 4nw, NY
Feb 23, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 4.81 Ssw Deferiet, NY
Feb 23, 7:45 AM ESTSNOW 64 Nw Copenhagen, NY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 261 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2023-02-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2023-02-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 95 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1082 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
80 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
329 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

221 
WWUS41 KBUF 220823
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

NYZ007-008-221800-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 7 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-221800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-085-221800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1500Z-230223T0300Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-221800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1800Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around three tenths of 
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-221800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1800Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
323 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to three tenths of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph near the Lake Ontario
  shoreline.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice and gusty winds. Travel could be extremely difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JLA
7 follow-up statements
159 
WWUS41 KBUF 221650
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1150 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

NYZ007-008-230100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1150 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-230100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T2000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
1150 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of one to two tenths of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-085-230100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T0300Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1150 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
  inch. Lesser snow and ice accumulations along the Lake Erie 
  shoreline.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-230100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1800Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
1150 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around three tenths 
  of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-230100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.230222T1800Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
1150 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to three tenths 
  of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph near the Lake 
  Ontario shoreline.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds may
  bring down a few ice covered tree branches. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
077 
WWUS41 KBUF 222257
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
557 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

NYZ007-008-230700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.230223T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
557 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 7 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest snow
  accumulations across northern portions of Lewis and Jefferson
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-230700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
557 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 4
  to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-085-230300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T0300Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
557 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional ice accumulations up to a
  tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-230700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
557 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up
  to 2 inches and ice accumulations a quarter to a third of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel will be extremely difficult at times. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-230700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
557 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1 
  to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths 
  of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel will be extremely difficult at times. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel
455 
WWUS41 KBUF 230126
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
826 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

NYZ007-008-231000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
826 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of 
  around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest snow 
  accumulations across northern portions of Lewis and Jefferson 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ020-021-230600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T0600Z/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
826 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional ice accumulations a few
  hundredths of an inch.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-231000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
826 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional ice accumulations up to 
  a tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-231000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
826 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 4 
  to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an 
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-231000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
826 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total ice accumulations a quarter 
  to a third of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel will be extremely difficult at times. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-231000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
826 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total ice accumulations of one 
  tenth to three tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel will be extremely difficult at times. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel
606 
WWUS41 KBUF 230604
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
104 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

NYZ020-021-230715-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T0600Z/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
104 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Temperatures have climbed above freezing, so only rain and drizzle
are not anticipated. 

$$

NYZ007-008-231415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
104 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations
  of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an
  inch. TOTAL snowfall will range from 6 to 11 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-231415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
104 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  an inch or less and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-231415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
104 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of around 
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
  hazardous conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of freezing rain will result in slick roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

Submit ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-231415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
104 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of freezing rain will result in slippery roads and 
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-231200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
104 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of around 
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of freezing rain will result in slick roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

Submit ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
787 
WWUS41 KBUF 230839
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
339 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

NYZ007-008-231645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
339 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an
  inch. TOTAL snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-231645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
339 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  an inch or less and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
  hazardous conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-231645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
339 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional ice accumulations of 
  around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of freezing rain will result in slick roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

Submit ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-231645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
339 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional ice accumulations of up 
  to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
  hazardous conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of freezing rain will result in slippery roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-231200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
339 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a few 
  hundredths of an inch.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of freezing rain will result in slick roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

Submit ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
477 
WWUS41 KBUF 230950
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
450 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

NYZ019-085-231100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
450 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

NYZ007-008-231800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
450 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1 
  to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an 
  inch. TOTAL snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-231800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
450 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  an inch or less and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-231800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
450 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional ice accumulations of 
  around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of freezing rain will result in slick roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

Submit ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-231800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
450 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional ice accumulations of up 
  to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The 
  hazardous conditions WILL impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of freezing rain will result in slippery roads and
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
996 
WWUS41 KBUF 231425
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
925 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

NYZ007-008-232230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
925 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Freezing drizzle. Additional ice accumulations of a light
  glaze.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-014-232230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
and Canandaigua
925 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing drizzle. Additional ice accumulations of a light
  glaze.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-232230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, and Geneseo
925 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing drizzle. Additional ice accumulations of a light
  glaze.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-232230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-230223T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
925 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing drizzle. Additional ice accumulations of a light
  glaze.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 22, 1:29 AM EST, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 22, 1:29 AM EST, 1 hour 54 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
129 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A few flurries and scattered lake effect snow showers are possible
overnight as colder air moves across the region. Otherwise, expect
dry weather through mid morning. A large and complex storm system
will then bring a mixed bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and even
just plain rain this afternoon into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Radar shows a few lake bands along the south shore of Lake
Ontario to east of Lake Ontario. These may bring some light
snow showers or flurries there. Otherwise, it should be a quiet
night with increasing clouds for the region as a shortwave ridge
moves into the region. Low temperatures will be in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For this period have issued winter weather advisories for much of
our region as outlined below. Freezing rain will be the
greatest impact, with minor snow accumulation as well closer to
Lake Ontario. The models have trended a little farther north
with the sleet/freezing rain line, and with still considerable
uncertainty to snow amounts will leave the watch as is for
Jefferson and Lewis counties.

Water Vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper level closed low
just to the east of Baja. This feature, combined with a digging
trough through the west will bring both Pacific moisture along with
Gulf of Mexico moisture to our region. This moisture combined with a
belt of moisture already over our region along a baroclinic boundary
will push precipitable water standard deviations for this time of year
towards +3.5 SD over our Southern Tier. Though not as significant
deep moisture will still push northeastward across NYS. This
moisture along with broad lift from both the approaching shortwaves,
along with favorable right entrance region of a strengthening 110
knot upper level jet over Quebec will allow for heavy precipitation
Wednesday night.

A little light snow may fly across the northern Niagara Frontier
Wednesday morning. The northern shield of precipitation from the
approaching storm system will reach the Southern Tier later in the
morning Wednesday as a little light snow. As milder, moist air aloft
lifts up and over the low level cold northeast flow initial snow
will begin to transition to sleet/freezing rain...and then plain
rain as the warm layer aloft becomes sufficiently deep enough...and
surface temperatures climb above the freezing mark. Additionally a
100 J/kg of MUCAPE along with the presence of graupel could produce
a few lightning flashes across WNY Wednesday evening.

This northeast cool flow will keep chances for freezing rain/sleet
in the forecast for all our region Wednesday night, except for the
Southern Tier and southern portions of Erie county where surface
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. Southerly flow will
bring above freezing temperatures as well as potential for plain
rain as far north as the southern Lake Ontario shoreline by Thursday
morning. This southerly push of mild air pushing the freezing rain/
sleet line farther northward into the North Country could reduce the
amount of snow here from our current forecast amounts.

As far as ice accumulations, using the NBM and model consensus up to
three tenths of an inch of ice is likely, across the Niagara
Frontier, Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes. The greatest ice
accumulations...and areas that could push slightly more...is a
narrow zone inland/away from the immediate the Lake Ontario
shoreline and to the escarpment where the northeast cold air will be
scoured out last.

Additionally Wednesday night a strong easterly flow on Lake Ontario
will back...to northeast. This will make for breezy winds along the
southern Lake Ontario shoreline. Winds gusts here could be 35 to 45
mph.

Early Thursday morning a narrow area of subsidence behind the first
low, and surface low near southern Lake Michigan will quickly
diminish, but not end, precipitation from west to east. The northern
flow will likely hold sub freezing temperatures just south of Lake
Ontario and to the escarpment through the day Thursday...continuing
the threat of freezing rain/drizzle here. Meanwhile ahead of the
second surface low and stronger shortwave aloft, a surge of warm air
to the south will significantly warm the southern zones...with 60F
possible near the state line. This in contrast to the Saint Lawrence
Valley that will remain stuck in the lower 20s through the day!

Between the lows gusty winds off the Lakes will temporarily diminish
early Thursday. Later Thursday this second surface low tracking by
our region will return a wintry mix to our region. Deep moisture is
now to our north and east, and thus precipitation totals will be
much less Thursday and into Thursday night. By Thursday evening
cooling aloft behind this second surface low will end the freezing
rain aspect to the storm.

Thursday night strong cold air advection will increase the wind
gusts behind the departing second surface low. Advisory level gusts
are possible Thursday night as temperatures at 850 hPa drop from the
low single digits Celsius Thursday evening down to the negative
upper teens by Friday morning. This, along with a 70 knot LLJ at 5K
feet will bring a brief period of stronger wind gusts Thursday
evening and overnight. Any lingering ice on trees and wires combined
with the potential strong winds could lead to issues with tree limbs
and power lines. This will be something to watch as we get later
into the event.

Additionally the cold west-northwest flow will drive some lake
effect snow showers across WNY, with an inch or two possible in the
lake belts.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong Canadian high pressure builds toward the lower Great Lakes
Friday. Flow around the high will send a shot of arctic air into the
region with 850 mb temperatures down to around -18C. The northwest
flow will bring lake effect snow with some accumulations southeast
of the lakes and light snow showers elsewhere. Friday will be a cold
day and windy day with high temperatures in the upper teens and 20s
south of Lake Ontario and only teens east of Lake Ontario, but wind
chills will be as cold as the single digits below zero. Lake snow
showers and winds will diminish Friday night as drier air builds in.
Continued very cold Friday night with sub zero temperatures across
the North Country. Single digits and teens elsewhere, with wind
chills values below zero and as cold as 20 below across parts of the
North Country.

Gradual temperature recovery over the weekend, although a shortwave
trough dropping through downstream of plains ridge will bring a
chance of mainly snow showers at times Saturday, but just to areas
east of Lake Ontario Sunday.

Stronger system arriving into Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday will
bring the potential for rain or mixed precipitation along with gusty
winds.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold westerly flow across Lake Ontario is producing low VFR (3500-
4500 feet) CIGS from KROC to KFZY but will have little to no impact
on aviation operations. Expect continued VFR through the early
morning hours. Weather deteriorates after 16Z today as precipitation
spreads from SW-NE across the area. P-type will initially begin as
snow, but will transition over to sleet, freezing rain, and plain
rain for some terminals (KJHW) as warmer air works in aloft. This
will occur from SW to NE, first at KJHW then KBUF, KIAG, and KROC by
late this afternoon producing MVFR to IFR conditions at area
terminals. Once the precipitation arrives at KART, the predominate p-
type will likely be snow with conditions rapidly deteriorating to
IFR to LIFR.

Tonight...a sharp gradient will develop between the snow, sleet,
freezing rain, and plain rain south of Lake Ontario which will
produce MVFR to IFR/LIFR conditions at area terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation.
Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will become northeasterly and increase this afternoon and into
tonight. Gale warnings have been issued for west and central Lake
Ontario. Small craft advisories will be in effect elsewhere.  Expect
winds to briefly decrease Thursday, but then increase again and
shift back to the west-northwest later Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ001>006-010>014.
     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this
     evening for NYZ019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ042.
         Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday
         for LOZ042-043-062-063.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Zaff
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...JLA
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 21, 2:51 PM EST, 12 hours 32 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

NYZ007-008-222000-
Jefferson-Lewis-
251 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019>021-085-222000-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
251 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Strong and gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday night as a
cold front sweeps across the region changing any wintry mix or rain
back to snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>006-010>014-222000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
251 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Strong and gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday night as a
cold front sweeps across the region changing any wintry mix or rain
back to snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-222000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
251 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-222000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
251 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-064-065-222000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
251 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043-063-222000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
251 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 22, 12:47 AM ESTGale WarningBUF28 hr
Feb 22, 3:49 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF69 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2023Every winter storm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.