Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
250 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to our area
today, before dry weather returns briefly on Friday. Unsettled
weather will then return Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday.
Yet another area of low pressure is then set to bring more
unsettled weather for the first part of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The wave associated with a southern stream system is now
reaching pushing east of Lake Ontario. A nice wedge of clearing
has developed behind it with ample southwesterly flow and mixing
that is allowing for temperatures and hence instability to jump.
A second northern stream wave is driving convection ahead of
this wave that is harnessing the instability that has developed
over southern Ontario. This will move into WNY int he coming
hours and cross the whole area through early this evening. Gusty
winds will be possible with these showers and storms as they
cross the area.

The upper level trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes
region tonight. Overall, drier and cooler air will filter into the
region behind an advancing cold front overnight. Showers will linger
mainly south of Interstate 90 and east of Interstate 81 through the
evening hours. The cold front will move to the western Southern Tier
to the western Finger Lakes region by Friday morning. Low
temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 50s to the low 60s.

Post-frontal conditions will result in 850mb temperatures falling to
+9C by early Friday morning. This will produce a lake response,
however it will be a weak one due to drier air and subsidence
increasing across the region. The combination of westerly, upslope
flow and a weak lake response will result in cloudy conditions
southeast of the Lakes. Subsidence will result in clearing and dry
conditions expected elsewhere Friday. High temperatures will range
in the 70s Friday, with upper 70s along the lake plains to the low
70s to the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave ridge over head Friday evening will move east overnight.
A southwest flow will increase with PWATS increasing to 1.5 inches
from west to east. A warm front will move into western NY overnight
and showers will expand from west to east across western NY. There
are some timing differences within the models, however the consensus
shows showers across far western NY by the second half of Friday
night. Locations across the Eastern Lake Ontario region should stay
dry Friday night. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to
low 60s across far western NY to the low to mid 50s across the Tug
Hill region.

An upper level trough across the Upper Great Lakes will move east
while becoming negatively tilted Saturday. Southwest flow ahead of
an advancing cold front and associated surface low will continue to
advect moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region. Initially,
moderate showers with the chance for thunderstorms along and ahead
of an occluded front will move east Saturday morning. This activity
will reach the eastern Great Lakes region by early afternoon with a
likely break in activity across western NY. Behind this activity,
the region will be in the warm sector with increasing temperatures
and dewpoints. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will
likely develop or move into the region ahead of an advancing cold
front Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. There is a
Marginal Risk for severe storms from the Ohio Valley into the
western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region. Warmer
Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another factor for
Saturday will be breezy conditions with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph
and gusts up to 35 mph northeast of Lake Erie. Breezy but not as
strong further south and east.

Cold front comes across in pieces across the region Saturday night.
A bit of instability remains to keep small chances for thunder in
most of the night. It will be a muggy night with patchy fog as
dewpoints will be slow to fall with lack of a strong fropa.

Occluding sfc low tracks across southern Quebec on Sunday before
heading to Atlantic Canada on Monday. Similar to Friday, a few
showers could linger especially east of Lake Ontario. There may be
enough instability to generate some thunder over north central NY
Sunday afternoon. Drying then takes hold west to east into Sunday
night with low temps into lower 50s Southern Tier and east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The wet pattern will continue throughout the next upcoming
week, with heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible early in
the week.

Starting Sunday night, the region will be under upper level ridging
which will be sandwiched between two upper level troughs. Of note
with the two troughs, eyes will be peeled to the incoming trough to
the west. This western trough will strengthen into an upper level
low and dig southeast across the Great Lakes Sunday night before
lifting northeast across the eastern Great Lakes and into New
England Tuesday.

This all being said in the lower levels of the atmosphere, surface
high pressure associated with ridging aloft Sunday night will
provide for mainly dry weather. Then Monday into Tuesday, the now
sharp trough aloft will support a surface low and associated cold
front to move across the region and result in an increased threat
for heavy rain as southeasterly flow will act as a moisture
transport for the warm moist Gulf of Mexico air (as seen in
increased PWAT values of up to 1.75"). Additionally ahead of the
cold front Monday, spots of moderate instability with strong
effective shear may support severe weather. This all being said, its
early for the details but the potential is there for somewhere
across the Northeast.

Conditions will then dry out a tad later Tuesday into Wednesday
behind the strong system. However, the dry time won't last long as
the general troughing pattern remains overhead of the northeastern
quadrant of the United states through the remainder of the week,
where multiple shortwave trough will rotate through and resulting in
periods of more wet weather for the later half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flight conditions will remain VFR/MVFR with ceilings falling to
the 030-060kft range through most of the afternoon. A period of
MVFR cumulonimbus with some convective development will progress
across IAG/BUF between now and 22z, and at ROC in the 20 to 22z
time frame. It would roughly get toward ART about 22z to 00z. A
distinct brief period of NW gusts will accompany this that
shouldn't last terribly long.

Widespread showers taper off tonight in the wake of the cold front,
however upsloping and a weak lake effect response may help to keep a
few of these going east and southeast of the Lakes overnight. Mainly
low VFR/some MVFR higher terrain can be expected in areas of lake
clouds with mainly VFR elsewhere.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible, mainly east of the Genesee
Valley.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with shower chances increasing west to east

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain somewhat elevated today, enough to produce some
light to moderate chop on both Lakes. A line of showers and
storms will cross Lake Ontario with an abrupt NW wind shift and
gusts toward special marine warning criteria for a time. This
will lead to a period of very choppy conditions.

Winds will then veer northwest behind a cold front this evening.
Winds will freshen across eastern Lake Ontario with a brief period
of Small Craft conditions possible for the second half of tonight
and Friday. Temperatures aloft will also cool enough that waterspout
formation will be possible on the eastern end of Lake Ontario late
tonight and into early Friday morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...Fries/HSK
SHORT TERM...HSK/JLA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Fries/JM
MARINE...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-110845-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
431 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-110845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
431 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

NYZ001-101830-
Niagara NY-
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NIAGARA COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM EDT...

At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 8 miles west of Lewiston, or 9 miles northwest of
Niagara Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible well ahead of the main
         cluster of thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Niagara Falls, Lockport, Newfane, Lewiston, Youngstown, Fort Niagara
State Park, Sanborn, Wilson, Cambria Center, Olcott, Pendleton
Center, Ransomville, Model City, and Appleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4330 7909 4341 7857 4341 7852 4309 7875
      4308 7908 4311 7906 4312 7907 4315 7904
      4317 7905 4325 7906 4328 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 291DEG 28KT 4317 7920

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Fries

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
256 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

NYZ002-003-011-101945-
Orleans NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
256 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ORLEANS...MONROE AND
GENESEE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 256 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Hamlin Beach State
Park to near Akron. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Batavia, Brockport, Albion,
Hilton, Webster, Brighton, Gates-North Gates, Hamlin Beach State
Park, Le Roy, Pembroke, Spencerport, Pavilion, Byron, Scottsville,
Churchville, and Oakfield.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 47 and 48A.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 7846 4311 7846 4340 7787 4338 7774
      4328 7754 4332 7735 4330 7715 4328 7718
      4328 7737 4319 7738 4299 7779 4299 7791
      4295 7791 4294 7793 4292 7794 4286 7805
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 286DEG 23KT 4335 7789 4307 7846

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Fries