Small Craft Advisory 76, NWS Buffalo, NY

530 
WHUS71 KBUF 150153
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
953 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

LOZ042-043-151000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0076.230815T0700Z-230815T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
953 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

994 
WHUS71 KBUF 150811
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
411 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

LOZ042-043-151615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-230815T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
411 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JLA

038 
WHUS71 KBUF 151430
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1030 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

LOZ042-043-152100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-230815T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1030 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

544 
WHUS71 KBUF 152016
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

LOZ042-043-152130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-230815T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have diminished.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass to the south of the region tonight, bringing
increasing chances of rain overnight especially from the Southern
Tier to Central NY. An upper level trough will then cross the region
Tuesday and Tuesday night with a few more rounds of showers and
scattered thunderstorms. High pressure will build back into the area
Wednesday with mainly dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Satellite imagery showing a wealth of diurnal cumulus this afternoon
inland from the lakes, along with thickening mid/high clouds
streaming into the area from west to east. Clouds will continue to
thicken through the rest of the day across Western and Central NY
ahead of a wave of low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley. Most
locations will stay dry, although a few showers are possible by late
afternoon/early evening across the western Southern Tier.

Tonight, a weak surface frontal wave and convectively enhanced mid
level shortwave will move from southern Ohio this evening east
across central and southern PA overnight. 12Z model guidance has
generally trended south and east with the stronger forcing
associated with this system, and thus also trended south and east
with the greater potential for widespread, soaking rain. A wing of
warm advection and isentropic upglide along with DPVA ahead of the
mid level shortwave will move across the area tonight from southwest
to northeast, spreading increasing rain chances across the area.

In general, the greatest chances of measurable rain will move from
the western Southern Tier later this evening into the Finger Lakes
and Central NY overnight, with lower rain chances near the Canadian
border. Rain amounts will likely be very limited in most areas as
the swath of heavier rain moves across PA towards the northern Mid
Atlantic and southeast NY. Somewhat higher amounts may clip the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, but even here forecast amounts have
been trended down. Very limited elevated instability should keep
thunder chances to a minimum tonight, although a few spotty rumbles
of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Tuesday morning what remains of the overnight rain associated with
the frontal wave will be moving through the eastern Lake Ontario
region and exiting. This will leave a break in organized rainfall
for most of the area through the morning and midday hours. Tuesday
afternoon a well defined mid level closed low will move east across
western and central Lake Erie. Increasing DPVA and diffluent upper
level flow downstream of this system will spread increasing large
scale ascent into Western NY during the afternoon. Extensive cloud
cover across our region will limit destabilization, but nonetheless
increasing forcing and cooling aloft will support increasing
coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening, generally spreading from west to east across the area. PWAT
values remain around 1.5" Tuesday, so some storms may produce
locally heavy rainfall if enough instability develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A well defined mid-level shortwave and weak sfc reflection will
track into and across the area Tuesday evening. With its
arrival...we should see a period of moderate to heavy rain showers,
possibly even some embedded lightning. However...instability will be
waning at the time which will likely limit this potential. As we
progress through the night...the mid-level shortwave slowly crosses
and then exit the region by daybreak Wednesday. As it does so...we
should see a gradual decreasing in shower coverage as the supporting
shortwave departs off to our east. Lingering moisture and cool
northwesterly flow may continue to produce a few additional showers
southeast of the lakes through Wednesday afternoon.

Otherwise...drier air working in will eventually win over with much
of the area seeing dry weather by Wednesday evening.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley builds in Wednesday night with
dry conditions but cool conditions. Lows will be found mainly in the
50s.

Dry weather will continue for much of the day Thursday but we will
see increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the next shortwave
working across the upper Great Lakes. Highs will be found in the
uppers 70s (higher terrain) to low/mid 80s elsewhere. The strong mid-
level shortwave will become increasingly negatively tilted
Thursday evening while sending its cold front into the Lower
Lakes. Severe potential right now looks limited with a less
than ideal arrival time due to waning instability in the evening.
Even so...there still could be some strong storms ahead and
along the front. Showers may linger into Friday but drier
weather will return as an expansive sfc high over the Ohio
Valley builds into New York State.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad upper level ridge building across the Central Plains Friday
night through Sunday will help kick out the upper level trough lying
across the Northeast into New England and Canadian Maritimes. This
will result in surface high pressure over the central Great Lakes
Friday night to subtly push east into the lower Great Lakes
throughout the weekend and therefore support a period of dry weather.

Model guidance seems to be in agreement of a shortwave and
corresponding surface low diving southeast across the Great Lakes
region Monday. Depending on the strength of the surface high, the
introduction of the low may support a few showers to enter the
region by Monday night. Seeing how it is this far out, stay tuned
for the details.

Otherwise temperatures with gradually warm throughout the weekend.
Highs Saturday will range in the upper 70s to low 80s whereas by
Monday temperatures will solidly be in the 80s region wide.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Diurnal cumulus and increasing mid/high clouds will continue through
the rest of the afternoon with generally VFR prevailing.

Tonight a wave of low pressure will pass south of the area through
PA, with an area of showers spreading north and east across the
area. The showers will reach the Southern Tier later this evening,
then spread into the rest of the area overnight. Low levels will
gradually moisten in low level northeast flow north of the frontal
wave, with areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS developing overnight across the
higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, with VFR
prevailing farther north on the lake plains.

Tuesday low CIGS will continue to become more widespread in the
morning, with MVFR favored at lower elevations and IFR across higher
terrain. These lower CIGS will continue through much of the day,
although IFR across higher elevations will tend to improve to MVFR
later in the day. Expect a lull in showers through much of the
morning and midday, followed by increasing showers and a few
scattered thunderstorms from west to east during the afternoon as an
upper level low approaches from the west.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers early, otherwise VFR.
Thursday...VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...Restrictions possible with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A wave of low pressure will pass to the south of the area across PA
tonight, while high pressure remains centered north of the Lakes
across Ontario and western Quebec. The increasing pressure gradient
between the two will bring a period of elevated northeast winds to
Lake Ontario and Lake Erie later tonight through Tuesday. This will
likely produce Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south shore of
Lake Ontario from about Sodus Bay westward. Lake Erie will become
very choppy at a minimum, with some chance of Small Craft Advisory
conditions there as well. Winds will become northwest and diminish
later Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-150830-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-150830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
426 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Lacona             43.63N 76.06W
08/12/2023                   Oswego             NY   Public

            Numerous trees down along County Route 22
            near Lacona. Delayed report from Saturday
            evening.

&&

Hitchcock

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sandy Creek             43.64N 76.09W
08/12/2023                   Oswego             NY   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees down.

0818 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SE Parish             43.37N 76.07W
08/12/2023                   Oswego             NY   Public

            Multiple trees uprooted and snapped.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1052 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Palermo             43.40N 76.28W
08/12/2023                   Oswego             NY   NWS Employee

            Trees down.

&&

Fries