Small Craft Advisory 72, NWS Buffalo, NY

572 
WHUS71 KBUF 071622
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1222 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

LEZ040-041-080030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.230808T0400Z-230809T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1222 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

435 
WHUS71 KBUF 072006
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
406 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

LEZ040-041-080415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.230808T0400Z-230809T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
406 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JLA

784 
WHUS71 KBUF 080240
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1040 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

LEZ040-041-081045-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.230808T0240Z-230809T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1040 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JLA

403 
WHUS71 KBUF 080841
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
441 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

LOZ042-081645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.230808T1000Z-230809T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
441 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. 
 
* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-081645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.230808T1200Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
441 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-081645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230808T2100Z/
Lower Niagara River-
441 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-081645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.230808T1500Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
441 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-081645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
441 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

056 
WHUS71 KBUF 081619
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1219 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

LEZ040-041-090000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1219 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-090030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1219 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-090030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1219 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-090030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1219 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-082100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230808T2100Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1219 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

505 
WHUS71 KBUF 081948
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

LOZ030-090000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-090000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-090300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-090400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-090400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
348 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

278 
WHUS71 KBUF 082355
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
755 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

LEZ040-041-LOZ030-090100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
755 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

$$

LOZ042-090300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
755 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-090800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
755 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-090800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
755 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

290 
WHUS71 KBUF 090148
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
948 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

LOZ042-090300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
948 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

$$

LOZ043>045-090300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0072.000000T0000Z-230809T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
948 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track into the Lower Lakes today with another
round of showers and thunderstorms...some of which could produce
gust winds and heavy rain. Additional showers and storms will be
possible tonight through Tuesday as the low pressure system slowly
moves through the region. Showers will then taper off from west to
east by Tuesday night as the low moves off into New England. High
pressure builds in Wednesday with a brief return to quiet dry
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Warm front entering western NY as of 06Z. Even through SBCAPE has
waned...elevated instability and forcing along and ahead of the
front will continue to trigger showers and some embedded lightning
overnight.

Otherwise...soupy air mass in place as dewpoints have climbed into
the upper 60s to near 70F across western New York. PWATs have also
jumped to between 1.75 to 2.0 inches...this will allow for any
stronger embedded cell with the warm front to potentially produce
heavy rain.

After the front lifts through, far Western NY will break into the
warm sector by late tonight, leaving mainly rain-free weather.
Remaining low moisture as dewpoints are pushing up toward 70 may
result in some fog/low stratus across the Western Southern Tier,
especially across higher terrain. Lows will mainly be in the mid 60s
to around 70, except in the lower 60s east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An anomalously deep trough, for early August standards is centered
over Iowa while a secondary shortwave trough is centered over Lake
Michigan this afternoon. These troughs will move toward the Great
Lakes region, eventually becoming a larger trough centered over the
Ohio Valley by Monday morning. At the surface, there are two surface
reflections that will move east and merge over southern Ontario and
Lake Erie Monday.

A 25kt low-level jet will be moving from southwest to northeast
across the region Monday morning. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms will be stretched from Lake Ontario to central NY
Monday morning. Guidance depicts a wide swath of showers so expect
most places to measure as this area of showers moves into the
eastern Lake Ontario region through early afternoon. Some showers
could be moderate to heavy, however they will be moving so
initially, hydro concerns are low.

The initial push of moisture and warm air will put western NY into
the warm sector Monday. Cloud cover could be an issue with
destabilization in the morning, but forecasts show SBCAPE of 500-
1000J/Kg will be likely Monday afternoon. As previously mentioned,
the two surface lows to the west will merge near southern
Ontario/Lake Erie Monday and will be associated with a trailing cold
front. Model guidance depicts a pre-frontal trough ahead of the cold
front over Ohio Monday morning. This will likely be the first focus
of convective initiation as this feature moves north across western
NY Monday afternoon. The wind field will increase as a strong mid-
level jet moves around the base of the trough Monday afternoon. Due
to the closer proximity to the mid-level trough, the eastern Great
Lakes region is on the north of the greater wind speeds, maximized
across the central Appalachians. That being said, isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across western NY with
the focus from the western Southern Tier into the western Finger
Lakes region Monday afternoon. Main hazards are damaging winds and
large hail. Heavy rain from increasing PWATs and small MBE vectors
may pose a risk for localized flooding. High temperatures will reach
the upper 70s to low 80s across western NY to the low to mid 70s
east of Lake Ontario.

The main cold front will remain west of the region most of Monday
night as the surface low moves into the Lake Ontario region.
Initially, convection from Monday afternoon will continue to move
northeast across the forecast area through Monday evening.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible across western NY
behind the initial activity, however the region may be 'worked over'
resulting in less of a severe threat overnight. The eastern Lake
Ontario region will become entrenched in the warm sector overnight
resulting in the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms
with heavy downpours and the chance of localized flooding. Mild and
muggy Monday night with lows ranging in the 60s.

The cold front will slowly cross the region Tuesday. Due to the
slower speed of the front, some destabilization will occur but
instability forecasts are weak so severe threat is low at this time.
Further west, showers will taper off from west to east, however
clouds will linger through the day. Breezy Tuesday with strong (for
summer) southwest winds especially near the lakeshores. Gusts up to
30mph are possible. Highs will reach the low to mid 70s Tuesday.

Showers will end east of Lake Ontario Tuesday night. Low
temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally a dry start to the long term period for Wednesday with a
ridge moving into the region and high pressure over the mid-Atlantic
coast. There will be the potential for a few instability
showers/storms with daytime heating, but guidance is still a bit
split on that potential. A weak warm front should shift north across
the area Wednesday night, which may cause a few showers/storms to
develop.

A cold front will approach the area on Thursday and cross Thursday
night into early Friday morning with showers and thunderstorms ahead
of and along it. Shower potential for Thursday will increase through
the day as the front approaches with a trough out ahead of it.
Rainfall with some of the showers and storms could be at least
moderately heavy as PWats so far look to increase above 1.50".
Guidance remains split on rainfall amounts. Most of the models have
a secondary sfc low and potent shortwave track south of the area
along the front, increasing the rainfall amounts well to the south,
While some other guidance pulls these features north more over the
forecast area. Thursday could turn into a wetter day than what is
currently expected. Showers should taper off from west to east
behind the passing cold front before daybreak on Friday for most of
the area.

Zonal flow to weak ridging on Friday will provide some dry time
through the evening on Friday.

The chance for showers and storms will start to increase through the
night on Friday night and into the day on Saturday. This will occur
as an area of low pressure and frontal system track toward and then
across WNY and north central NY. Steadier showers will taper off
through the day on Sunday, but with a trough over the region and
cool temps aloft some diurnally driven showers/storms could re-
develop.

Temperatures for the long term period will generally be within a few
degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will work northeast across area terminals overnight
with showers and some embedded thunder. CIGS will deteriorate to
MVFR...with some IFR across the S.Tier of the higher terrain to
include KJHW. With the passage of the warm front a brief break in
the showers and storms will occur by early this morning into the early
afternoon.

Low pressure will to our west will then near the region by mid to
late this afternoon bringing another round of showers and storms
which will last into tonight. These storms will have the
potential to produce heavy rain and gusty winds...with localized
IFR/LIFR restrictions.

Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night...MVFR to VFR with showers ending.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
There will continue to be the potential for showers and some
thunderstorms as a warm front lifts across the region through late
tonight and as a cold front approaches by Tuesday. Thunderstorms may
produce strong gusty winds Monday afternoon and Monday night, which
could result in localized higher wave action.

Otherwise, winds will increase late Monday night through Tuesday
night as a wave of low pressure moves by. Winds are likely to reach
small craft criteria at times. These stronger winds and higher waves
will also likely result in another round of dangerous swimming
conditions in all or most of our nearshore waters Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/JLA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/Apffel/JLA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-080300-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
1047 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy rain is possible the rest of the night in any stronger showers
or thunderstorms as a warm front lifts across the region. There
could be ponding of water in poor drainage and low-lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Tuesday. Some
of these storms could produce strong gusty winds, large hail, and
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-080300-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1047 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Tuesday. Some
of these storms could produce strong gusty winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA