Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Buffalo, NY

442 
WHUS71 KBUF 130228
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

LEZ040-041-131030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1000Z-230713T2200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1028 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-131030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1200Z-230713T2200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1028 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-131030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1200Z-230713T2200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1028 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

959 
WHUS71 KBUF 130750
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

LOZ043-044-131700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1800Z-230714T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
350 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-131700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1800Z-230714T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
350 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-131700-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1000Z-230714T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
350 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-131700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1200Z-230713T2200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
350 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-131700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1200Z-230713T2200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
350 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

074 
WHUS71 KBUF 131453
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

LEZ040-041-132300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-132200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230713T2200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-132200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230713T2200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-132300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1800Z-230714T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-132300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.230713T1800Z-230714T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

840 
WHUS71 KBUF 132204
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

LEZ020-LOZ042-132315-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230713T2200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...


$$

LEZ040-041-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
604 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

924 
WHUS71 KBUF 132313
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
713 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

LEZ040-041-140300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
713 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-140300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
713 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
713 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

411 
WHUS71 KBUF 140243
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1043 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

LEZ040-LOZ043>045-140345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1043 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ041-140600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1043 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

513 
WHUS71 KBUF 140531
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
131 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

LEZ041-140645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-230714T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
131 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished and waves have subsided below Small Craft 
Advisory criteria. Minimal wind and wave action is expected
through the remainder of the night.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather expected through this evening...the lone
exception will be near the NY/PA line. The cold front will return
north as a warm front beginning tonight with showers and
thunderstorms possible...some of which could produce heavy rain. On
Thursday...there will be additional chances for showers and storms
some of which could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and hail. It
will become notably more humid as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
While most of the area will see dry weather through this
evening....there will be some showers and thunderstorms near the
NY/PA (S. Tier) line near the stalled front.

Tonight...eyes quickly turn to the convectively enhanced shortwave
over eastern Iowa. As is the case...these features are rarely
handled very well by models and it is worth noting a bit of a
westward track with the 12Z guidance. This would place the heaviest
precipitation over southeastern Ontario Canada overnight.
However...at this point will not make too many significant changes
to POPs with this update. That said...a strengthening LLJ will
accompany this shortwave which will send the stalled front to our
south back north, along with a surge in moisture (PW values up to
1.5-1.8 inches). There will be the threat of some showers and storms
along this warm front overnight as it works across the CWA. The
bigger question will be how much of an impact the shortwave
mentioned above will have on our western counties. Given the latest
12Z guidance...the slug of moderate/heavy rain with the convectively
enhanced shortwave may just slip by for the most part to our west
and northwest. This track would only clip the Niagara Frontier and
St. Lawrence Valley with the heavier precipitation. Will continue to
monitor situation closely with further updates likely needed.

Thursday...as the shortwave continues to track across southeastern
Ontario and then into Quebec the greatest rainfall in the morning
will likely be found across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
Convection is then expected to break out back in the warm sector
along its front in the afternoon. The greatest threat for this
additional convection appears to be found over our eastern counties
to include Lewis, Oswego, N. Cayuga, Wayne and Ontario in the
afternoon and evening. Given the recent rain...especially Lewis and
Ontario Co. have elected to issue a Flood Watch for Thursday through
Thursday evening/night. WPC has placed this area in an Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall.

In addition to the heavy rain threat...there is also the potential
for severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Infact...CAMS show
a decent line of storms forming as instability builds (1800-2000
j/kg per Bufkit profiles)with 0-6km bulk shear values of +40 knts
across our eastern counties. It's likely that there will be some
healthy storms (strong convection) that produce gusty winds and
hail...this in addition to the heavy rain threat. That said...SPC
has place our area in a Marginal and Slight Risk for severe storms.
Have updated the HWO to reflect this potential.

Thursday night...with the loss of daytime heating and the frontal
boundary slowly inching east storms will likely wane overnight.
However...still can't rule out a few lingering showers across
western Finger Lakes, this as another wave over PA slowly moves east
with the frontal boundary.

Otherwise...a muggy and mild day is expected Thursday with highs in
the 80s and Tds in the 65 to 70s range. Lows Thursday night will be
found in the 60s for the most part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak cold front and attendant shortwave draped across our
western doorstep at the start of Friday morning will steadily
push eastward through the course of the day...with weak
drying/ridging/subsidence in their wake allowing for a return to
dry and quiet weather across far western New York as the day
progresses. Further east...diurnal heating/destabilization
should allow for some additional scattered showers and storms to
develop during the late morning and afternoon from the interior
of the Southern Tier northeastward to the Finger Lakes and
North Country...with the activity potentially a little more
numerous across the latter area. Otherwise...highs will range
from the upper 70s across the higher terrain to the lower 80s
across the lower elevations...with some spots in the Genesee
Valley reaching the mid 80s.

Friday night surface-based ridging draped from the Virginias to New
York State will slowly drift eastward...while the next significant
shortwave trough and associated surface reflection pivots across the
western/central Great Lakes. The 12z guidance suite has trended a
bit slower with the movement of these features...which should result
in a largely dry night save for a lower-end chance of a shower or
two across extreme far western New York (and mainly Chautauqua
county at that) late. With regard to temps...the weak southerly flow
in between the departing high and incoming trough will result in
lows ranging from the lower 60s across interior portions of the
Southern Tier/North Country to the mid 60s across the lake plains.

On Saturday the aforementioned surface trough will work its way from
the central Great Lakes to far western New York. Increasing
southerly flow/warm advection out ahead of the trough will combine
with diurnal heating to allow temps to climb into the lower to mid
80s across the Southern Tier/North Country and to the mid to upper
80s elsewhere...while surface dewpoints rise back into the
uncomfortable mid to upper 60s. As we push through the day...the
approaching shortwave and mesoscale boundaries will interact with
this increasingly juicy and unstable airmass and lead to the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms...
with the greatest coverage of these expected across far western New
York. With CAPE values increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg and bulk shear
values in 25-35 knot range...would expect there to be at least a
risk of some isolated stronger to severe storms on Saturday...with
strong wind gusts the primary threat given mainly unidirectional
wind profiles. Additionally...with PWATs climbing back to between
1.50 and 1.75 inches there will once again be a concern for
localized heavy rainfall/flooding...particularly where cells manage
to train and/or affect areas already hard hit during the preceding
week.

Saturday night the shortwave trough/surface reflection will slowly
push across western New York. In spite of the loss of heating...
these features will still likely generate some additional scattered
to numerous showers and storms as they interact with our warm and
rather humid airmass...with this particularly the case across far
western New York and the North Country. Speaking of warm and
humid...surface dewpoints will again be in the mid to upper
60s...and these combined with a modest southerly flow will help keep
overnight lows from falling below the mid to upper 60s in most
places...with favored areas of downslope flow across the lake plains
possibly failing to drop below 70 degrees.

On Sunday the shortwave/surface troughs will continue to slowly make
their way eastward...with these and renewed daytime heating/
destabilization again leading to another round of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms...with the greatest coverage of
these this time found across the Finger Lakes and North Country.
PWATs remaining between 1.50 to 1.75 inches will again lead to a
potential for locally heavy rain and flooding...with this again the
greatest where cells manage to train or pass over areas previously
receiving heavy rainfall. Meanwhile bulk shear values will also
remain in the vicinity of 25-35 knots...again supporting the risk
for at least some isolated strong to severe storms. Otherwise...it
will again be warm and muggy...with highs mainly in the lower to mid
80s and surface dewpoints in the 65-70 range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A well defined upper/mid-level low over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday
night will slide east across southern Ontario Monday through Tuesday
before pulling north-northeast across Quebec Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Overall this will result in a troughing pattern to
persist across the lower Great Lakes and into New England.
Additionally, multiple shortwave trough will ripple through the
longwave pattern. Unfortunately this will result in more unsettled
weather throughout the first half of the new work week.

Typical timing and placement contradictions continue within the long
range guidance throughout the forecast period and therefore general
chances for showers and thunderstorm persist each day with the peak
timing for activity occurring during the afternoon and early evening
due to diurnal effects. However, the best chances for showers looks
to be Tuesday as a potent shortwave trough aids the longwave axis to
shift east and thus resulting in a cold frontal passage. Otherwise
the deep southwesterly flow across the region will keep the air mass
overhead on the warm and humid side with highs ranging from the low
to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will be in place through this evening.
That said...MVFR/IFR CIGs along the stalled front will impact
the S. Tier to include KJHW. There will also be a risk for
thunderstorms across the S. Tier.

Tonight...VFR expected initially then the stalled front will
lift north and support blossoming showers and thunderstorms
over the western counties. MVFR/IFR conditions may accompany
this activity.

Outlook...
Thursday...showers and thunderstorms likely with mainly IFR/MVFR
cigs.

Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate breezes and negligible waves will be found
throughout the Lower Great lakes this afternoon and evening. Similar
wind speeds can be expected tonight as variable winds will become
predominantly southeasterly. While conditions tonight will remain
below small craft advisory levels...there will be the risk for
thunderstorms after 03z.

Winds will freshen and become southwesterly in the wake of a warm
front on Thursday...this may warrant SCA on Lake Erie and the
western end of Lake Ontario. Otherwise...moderate southeasterlies on
the rest of Lake Ontario will become more southerly. The day will
also become unsettled with additional showers and the threat for
gusty thunderstorms.

Showers and storms will diminish Thursday night along with winds
relaxing allowing for minimal wave action as we head into Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
     NYZ004>006-008-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

NYZ001>003-010>013-085-131830-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Southern Erie-
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms tonight could produce heavy rain. The
GREATEST risk for this will likely occur over the Niagara Frontier
after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will again develop Thursday into Thursday
evening with the risk of generating locally heavy rain, damaging
winds, and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019>021-131830-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce locally
heavy rain this afternoon and evening...especially near the NY/PA
line.

Additional showers and storms will be possible tonight as the
stalled front begins to move north. Some of these showers and storms
could produce locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will once again develop Thursday afternoon
and evening with the risk of locally heavy rain, damaging winds, and
large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-131830-
Jefferson-
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and
evening which will have the potential to produce locally heavy rain,
damaging winds, and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-131830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-008-014-131830-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-Ontario-
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition to the Flood Watch...showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday afternoon and evening which cloud produce damaging
winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this
area in a Slight Risk for severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf