Small Craft Advisory 36, NWS Buffalo, NY

102 
WHUS71 KBUF 231418
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1018 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

LOZ043-044-232230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.230323T2100Z-230324T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1018 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-232230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.230324T0000Z-230324T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1018 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

941 
WHUS71 KBUF 231957
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
357 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

LOZ043-044-240400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.230323T2100Z-230324T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
357 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 6 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, 
  southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Friday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Saturday evening through Sunday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-240400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.230324T0000Z-230324T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
357 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 15 to 20 knots 
  and waves 3 to 5 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, southwest 
  winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 
  5 AM EDT Friday. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday evening 
  through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-240400-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230325T2100Z-230326T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
357 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-240400-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230325T2100Z-230326T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
357 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-240400-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
357 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

JJR

510 
WHUS71 KBUF 240110
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
910 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

LOZ043>045-241000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230324T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
910 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 6 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, 
  southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Friday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Saturday evening through Sunday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-241000-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230325T2100Z-230326T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
910 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-241000-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230325T2100Z-230326T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
910 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-241000-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
910 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

852 
WHUS71 KBUF 240537
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

LOZ043>045-241345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230324T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
137 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds
  to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 5 AM EDT early this 
  morning. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday evening through 
  Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-241345-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230325T2100Z-230326T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
137 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-241345-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230325T2100Z-230326T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
137 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-241345-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
137 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

848 
WHUS71 KBUF 240908
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
508 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

LOZ043>045-241715-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230324T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
508 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-241715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230325T2100Z-230326T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
508 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-241715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230325T2100Z-230326T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
508 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-241715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.230326T0000Z-230326T2100Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
508 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the region through Thursday morning,
with rain showers overnight. A cold front will move southeast out of
the Lower Great Lakes across the local area Thursday afternoon,
with rain tapering off by the late afternoon. High pressure
will then build east across the area Friday ahead of another
storm system expected to move northeast into the Central Great
Lakes over the weekend. This system will force another cold
front east across the region Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level shortwave trough over central Ontario will shift
eastward overnight, becoming centered just south of James Bay by the
pre-dawn hours. A warm front tied to the attendant surface low is
currently lifting across the North Country, and will continue to
meander north of the forecast area overnight. Though there are a few
scattered showers in closer proximity to the front, weak height
falls and increased moisture advection in its wake will cause rain
shower coverage to expand northeastward back across WNY, reaching
the North Country closer to daybreak. Otherwise, courtesy of WAA
behind the front expect a mild night by late March standards, with
temperatures hovering around the mid 40s in most spots.

The low will trek further eastward into central Quebec Thursday,
sliding a cold front southeast through the Lower Lakes in the
afternoon. Rain will continue across the region through much the
day, before tapering off from northwest to southeast with the FROPA
in the late afternoon to early evening. Still looks to be just
enough elevated instability present that a few embedded rumbles of
thunder will be possible across the Southern Tier. Rainfall totals
through Thursday will average around half an inch across far Western
NY and the North Country, with a quarter to half inch from the
Genesee Valley to the Finger Lakes. Locally higher amounts are
possible, especially in any thunderstorms that manage to develop
across the western zones. Highs in the low to mid 50s Thursday will
occur in the late morning to early afternoon, before dropping with
the passage of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper level trough across Canada that resulted in
surface low pressure is expected to continue moving east through
Friday. The surface low is expected to deepen over the East
Coast as surface high pressure builds in from the western Great
Lakes. The combination of the two features should begin to
increase the gradient across the forecast area resulting in
increasing winds from the northwest Thursday night into Friday.
winds diminish fairly quickly Friday into Friday night as the
high builds east over the area. Moisture associated with the
cold front should quickly move east of the area allowing fair
weather to return the local area Friday morning through Friday
evening. An upper level ridge builds east into the area Friday
night and nudges surface high pressure east of the area. This
should result in a brief period of cold air advection Thursday
night into Friday and then a return to some warm air advection
from west to east friday night into Saturday. This is in
response to a rather aggressive low pressure system that should
become nearly vertically stacked with a surface low moving into
the Central Great Lakes. The combination of the low over the
Great Lakes and the high pressure center over the East Coast, a
push of warm air advection and a surge of moisture should take
place Saturday. Once again, temperatures should push into the
upper 40s over the eastern half of the area and lower 50s in the
west. Another cold front moves east Saturday night allowing cold
air advection to take place from west to east overnight. This
should drop temperatures back into the 30s for lows Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level ridge will build east again across the area
Monday and then shift east Monday night as a deep digging upper
level trough dives into the Great Lakes. The trough pushes to
the East Coast by Tuesday night and should result in
cyclogenesis over the Oklahoma Panhandle. This surface low is
expected to track northeast through the Upper Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, as the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted,
the surface low is expected to deepen fairly rapidly over the
Upper Ohio Valley by Tuesday. There is the possibility that the
energy could jump to the East Coast late Tuesday. Abundant
moisture associated with the low pressure system is expected to
move northeast into the area and force more rain into the
forecast area Monday into Tuesday. As the low arrives over the
area, colder air will shift south into the area on the north
side of the surface low and there is the potential for a
rain/snow mix by Tuesday. After a mild weekend with temperatures
in the 50s, we should see colder air slide into the area Monday
and Tuesday knocking highs back into the 40s. Otherwise,
overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly MVFR conditions with areas of IFR developing overnight as a
warm front slowly lifts north of the area. Increasing moisture
behind the front is causing rain showers to overspread the region
from southwest to northeast. The far western terminals are already
seeing rain as of 06z, which will expand to KART by 09-10z.

MVFR/IFR conditions with widespread rain continues Thursday as a
cold front sinks through the region from the northwest in the
afternoon. The front will also cause winds to shift
west/northwesterly, and may also produce wind gusts of 20-25kts.
Rain showers will taper off late afternoon into the early evening
behind the front, with a return to mainly MVFR.

Outlook...

Thursday night...MVFR improving to VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely, possibly mixed with wet
snow across the North Country.
Sunday...Mainly VFR, through MVFR possible across the North
Country due to lingering mixed rain/snow showers.
Monday...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is expected to move southeast across the lakes
Thursday and this should shift winds around to a west and then
northwest direction by afternoon. There is the possibility for
small craft advisory conditions over the Lake Ontario waters and
possibly Lake Erie in the cold air advection Thursday night and
then diminishing late Friday into Friday night as flow becomes
easterly. Low pressure is expected to approach the lakes
Saturday setting up a southeast wind over eastern Lake Erie
resulting in some downsloping winds and accelerated wind in the
nearshore waters. We could see gale force winds in this area
along with gale force winds over all of Lake Ontario by
Saturday morning. If gale force winds do occur, they should be
short lived with the approaching low pressure system shifting
winds to a southwest direction by Saturday night. However, it
appears small craft conditions are likely Sunday into Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PP/Lombardy
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Lombardy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
514 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-232115-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
514 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A deep storm system will pass to our west during the weekend. This
powerful system will generate very strong wind gusts across much of
the region, especially over the far western counties Saturday night,
where gusts in excess of 50 mph will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-232115-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
514 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gale force winds are possible on Lakes Erie and Ontario this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-232115-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
514 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf