Small Craft Advisory 20, NWS Buffalo, NY

271 
WHUS71 KBUF 131422
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
922 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

LEZ020-132230-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230213T1600Z-230214T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
922 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-132230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230213T1500Z-230214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
922 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-132230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230213T2100Z-230214T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
922 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-132230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230213T2100Z-230214T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
922 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-132230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230213T2100Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
922 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-132230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230214T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
922 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

482 
WHUS71 KBUF 131738
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1238 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

LEZ040-041-140145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1238 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230213T2100Z-230214T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1238 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-140145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230213T2100Z-230214T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1238 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-140145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230213T2100Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1238 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-140145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230214T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1238 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1238 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

490 
WHUS71 KBUF 132331
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

LEZ020-140045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ040-041-140600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-140745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-140745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-140745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-140745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.230214T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
631 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

951 
WHUS71 KBUF 140231
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
931 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

LEZ040-041-140345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LOZ042-141045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-141045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-141045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

197 
WHUS71 KBUF 140910
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
410 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

LOZ042-141015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
410 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ040-041-141715-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0021.230215T0600Z-230216T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
410 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-141715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
410 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-141715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
410 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

584 
WHUS71 KBUF 141142
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

LOZ043>045-141245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-230214T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
642 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will continue to diminish today.

$$

LEZ040-041-141945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0021.230215T0600Z-230216T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
642 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1232 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Spring weather has arrived, with temperatures well above normal
through most of the week, as high pressure remains in place.
Temperatures will be on the rise through the first half of the
week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. Mainly dry weather will
continue through Wednesday, then rain chances will increase
Thursday as low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes. Another
bout of possibly strong winds will occur Friday as colder air
finally moves back into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Other than some wispy, cirrus from the outer edge of a coastal low,
skies remain mostly clear late tonight. Surface high pressure will
remain across the region overnight and cirrus will continue to
depart to the east with a window of clear and calm conditions across
much of the area. Lower dewpoint depressions and are located toward
the St. Lawrence Valley, though more pronounced frontal boundary is
more over southern Quebec. Still, once the cirrus clears out,
cooling along with the lower dewpoint depressions may result in some
patchy low clouds and fog later tonight toward the St. Lawrence
Valley. Low temperatures overnight will drop to around 20 over the
North Country with low to mid 20s elsewhere.

High pressure will weaken across the region Monday with a shortwave
trough moving east across the Great Lakes region. A cold front
associated with low pressure near James Bay, will move east across
the region Monday. Southwest winds will increase Monday morning
across western NY, with gusts up to 30 mph along and west of the
Genesee Valley. Gusts up to 35 mph are possible just northeast of
Lake Erie. The front will just be getting to the eastern Lake
Ontario region Monday afternoon and winds won't be as breezy.
Limited moisture resides with the cold front with mainly an increase
in mid-level clouds by early Monday evening. High temperatures will
reach the low to mid 40s Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night a northern stream mid-level trough and associated
surface low will push across Quebec Province...while pushing a
trailing weak cold front across our area. Due to relatively limited
moisture the front will come through mainly dry for most of the
area...except for areas east of Lake Ontario where the combination
of somewhat better moisture and upsloping/lake influences should
yield some scattered light rain and snow showers. Across the higher
terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foothills...this
could even lead to some localized slushy snow accumulations of an
inch or two. Otherwise...a brief shot of cooler air behind the front
will allow temperatures to settle back into the upper 20s and lower
30s by late Monday night.

On Tuesday the axis of surface high pressure will slide across New
York State...while upper-level ridging builds directly overhead.
This will result in fair dry weather along with increasing amounts
of sunshine...which combined with modest warm air advection will
allow for highs to reach the mid to upper 40s across much of the
area south of Lake Ontario...and the 35-40 range across the North
Country.

Tuesday night ridging at all levels will exit east across New
England...while the next mid-level trough/associated surface low
pushes from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Upper Great Lakes.
Increasing warm advection/southerly low-level flow across our region
will lead to a marked non-diurnal temperature trend with early
evening lows ranging from around 30 east to 35-40 west giving way to
steadily rising temps overnight...along with increasingly breezy to
windy conditions as the night progresses. The latter will especially
be the case along the Lake Erie shoreline southwest of Buffalo...
where the increasing downslope flow may lead to some 45-50 mph
(advisory criteria) gusts later on in the night. The overall warm
advection pattern and arrival of a surface warm front could also
trigger at least a few spotty light showers...though the bulk of any
forcing and thus precipitation still looks to remain to our
northwest.

On Wednesday the warm front will steadily push northeastward and
across our region. With the bulk of the forcing along the front
again looking to remain to our north and west...expect the boundary
to merely produce some widely scattered to scattered showers as it
crosses our region...with the majority of the day turning out to be
mainly dry. Otherwise a rather brisk southwesterly flow of much
warmer air flooding across our region behind the front will yield a
breezy to windy and unseasonably mild day...with southwesterly winds
frequently gusting to 30-40 mph and temps surging into the lower to
mid 50s across the North Country and the upper 50s/lower 60s south
of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday night the low pressure system responsible for the warm
frontal passage will lift out across northern Quebec...while a
second area of low pressure develops into the lower Ohio Valley.
With the main frontal zone attendant to these systems remaining to
our west and weak surface-based ridging developing across our
area...rather mild and dry/uneventful weather will prevail. Expect
low temps to be in the lower to mid 40s...or some 10-15 degrees
above normal daytime highs for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another southern stream Pacific shortwave moving out of the 4-
corners region will support a deepening surface low crossing the mid
Mississippi Valley early Thursday morning. The latest 12Z GFS/ECMWF
remain consistent in moving the deepening surface low into the
central Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, then moving just north of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Thursday night before reaching southern
Quebec by early Friday morning. The southern stream wave will at
least partially phase with another northern stream shortwave moving
into the northern Great Lakes Thursday, with the resulting deepening
trough and strong upper level jet dynamics supporting the
strengthening surface low. The 12Z Canadian continues to look too
suppressed and weak with this system compared to other operational
and ensemble guidance.

Temperatures will remain very warm Thursday as deep southerly flow
ahead of the system continues to pump spring-like air into the
region. Expect highs well into the 50s areawide, with lower 60s a
real possibility for the lower elevations of Western NY from an
added boost of downslope flow. Thursday should start dry early, but
rain chances will increase from southwest to northeast as deep
moisture and isentropic upglide arrive ahead of the approaching low.
The passage of the cold front and mid level trough Thursday night
will continue to support periods of showers.

It will turn windy Thursday night and Friday along and behind a
strong cold front. The track of the system, deepening and passing
just to our north and west, is favorable for strong winds in our
region. That said, forecast soundings continue to show a relatively
limited post-frontal wind field, with the stronger winds aloft
confined to the warm airmass ahead of the system where they have
little chance to fully mix down. If this trend continues in model
guidance, the risk of a strong wind event will remain very limited.

Much colder air will pour back into the eastern Great Lakes late
Thursday night and Friday behind the strong cold front. This will
support some modest northwest flow lake effect snow showers, but
limited duration and quickly drying synoptic scale moisture should
keep this lake effect snow on the light side.

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley later Saturday with a
ridge extending into the eastern Great Lakes, bringing an end to the
limited lake effect snow showers. A period of dry weather is then
expected from Saturday afternoon through the end of the weekend as
high pressure remains nearby from the Ohio Valley to Mid Atlantic.
The brief period of seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday will
quickly be replaced by above normal temperatures again by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure and VFR conditions will reside across the region
overnight. The potential for low clouds or fog continues at KART
after 07z once high clouds depart. Better chances will be closer to
a frontal boundary toward the St. Lawrence River but with low-level
moisture and ideal radiational cooling, can't rule it out.

VFR across the region Monday. Southwest winds increase across
western NY Monday morning. Gusts up to 35kts possible at KBUF/KIAG.
Less windy elsewhere.

Outlook...
Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday and Friday...Areas of MVFR/local IFR with showers
developing.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak ridge of high pressure will remain over the lower Great Lakes
overnight with diminishing winds and waves.

Another period of stronger winds is then expected late Monday
through early Tuesday as another system passes by to the north of
the region and tightens the pressure gradient over the lower Great
Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...EAJ/HSK/JLA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...EAJ/HSK/JLA
MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
546 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-131100-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
546 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-131100-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
546 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-131100-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
546 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf