Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2023

Small Craft Advisory 124, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 29, 2023

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Dec 29, 2023, 3:28 AM EST. It took effect at Dec 29, 2023, 8:00 AM EST. It was in force for 20 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 29, 2023, 3:28 AM EST (08:28 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 29, 2023, 8:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 30, 2023, 4:00 AM EST
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted.

081 
WHUS71 KBUF 290828
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

LOZ042-291630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231229T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1300Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-291630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231229T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1500Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST SATURDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-291630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231229T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1500Z-231230T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
EST SATURDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-291630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231229T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1800Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST SATURDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-290930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231229T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ040-041-291630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1300Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-291500-
/O.CON.KBUF.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231229T1500Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Dense fog will reduce visibility to one quarter to one 
  half nautical mile.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
796 
WHUS71 KBUF 291141
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
641 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

SLZ022-024-291245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.MF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231229T1500Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
641 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ040-041-291945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1300Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
641 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-291945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1300Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
641 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-291945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1500Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
641 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-291945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1500Z-231230T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
641 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-291945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1800Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
641 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
793 
WHUS71 KBUF 291420
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
920 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

LEZ040-041-292230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
920 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-292230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
920 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-292230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1500Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
920 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-292230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1500Z-231230T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
920 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-292230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.231229T1800Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
920 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
709 
WHUS71 KBUF 291957
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
257 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

LEZ040-041-300300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
257 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-300300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
257 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-300400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
257 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-300400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
257 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-300400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
257 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
555 
WHUS71 KBUF 300238
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
938 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

LOZ043-045-300345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
938 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

WInds and waves have dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

$$

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-300345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
938 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

$$

LOZ044-300900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
938 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
183 
WHUS71 KBUF 300904
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
404 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2023

LOZ044-301015-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-231230T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
404 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 29, 3:28 AM EST, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 29, 3:28 AM EST, 0 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
328 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Damp conditions today, with areas of fog and drizzle, will become
more confined to areas east of Lake Ontario. Mild temperatures will
continue with afternoon temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A
cold front will drop across the region tonight, supplying enough
cold air to change rain showers ahead of the front to snow showers
behind the front, with a minor snow accumulation on the hill tops by
Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This morning a surface trough from a east coast low lies back across
New York State and towards Lake Ontario, and is serving as a focus
for light rain showers. A southwest to west flow behind this trough
is providing for enough mixing within shallow saturated environment
to keep the dense fog from forming, though there are still some
patches of fog around. With the axis of the trough across the North
Country could still see some dense fog here, and will keep the dense
fog advisory in place, but remove it elsewhere.

For today showers will become confined to areas near this surface
trough. Still overcast today with temperatures in the low to mid
40s. There will be a slight southwest breeze today, with southwest
winds off Lake Erie gusting to 20 to 25 mph. This should be enough
mixing to end the drizzle threat...with brief dry time.

A shortwave within the northern branch of the jet over Canada will
push this trough southward tonight as a cold front. Initial showers
along the front will change to wet snow as cold air deepens across
our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will lower to around -4 to -5C
supporting snow. Accumulations will be minor with perhaps an inch
accumulating on the hills of SW NYS, and east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler air will filter into the region behind a surface trough this
weekend. Saturday, a shortwave ridge will quickly build into the
region. Snow showers will taper off from north to south as the
surface trough moves east of the region. Temperatures aloft will be
marginal for lake enhancement and snow showers may linger southeast
of the Lakes. Not expecting any impact due to the dry airmass and
marginal temperatures. Seasonable temperatures Saturday with highs
in the mid to upper 30s to the low 30s across the higher terrain.

The ridge will move overhead Saturday night while low-level winds
back to the west-southwest. Lake effect clouds and possibly some
flurries will be east of the Lakes overnight, however mostly dry
conditions are expected. Lows will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s
across western NY to the mid 20s east of Lake Ontario. Attention
turns to a shortwave trough digging into the Upper Great Lakes and
Midwestern regions Sunday. Moisture will increase ahead of this
system and rain and snow showers will move into western NY. The
addition of synoptic moisture will intensify the lake enhancement
east of Lake Erie. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 30s
to the low to mid 30s across the higher terrain by Sunday afternoon.
This will keep any minor accumulating snow across the hilltops. Very
weak flow across Lake Ontario will limit a lake response inland with
only a chance of snow showers across Oswego county Sunday. The
associated surface low will track across the Lake Erie region Sunday
night. The added surface convergence, moisture, and time of day will
produce a widespread light snow across western and central NY. A
dusting to an inch is possible with little to no accumulation across
the North Country. Lows will reach the mid to upper 20s across
western NY to the low to mid 20s across the North Country Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An expansive ridge will build across the Great Lakes region for the
start of the new year. Snow showers may be ongoing across western NY
Monday as a clipper system moves to the east. Overall, snow showers
will diminish to mostly dry conditions later Monday through Tuesday
night. The only caveat is that westerly flow within a cool airmass
may produce light snow showers east of the Lake Ontario during this
time.

A trough will move into the Great Lakes region Wednesday
through Thursday. A southwest flow will strengthen ahead of an
approaching cold front Wednesday. Temperatures may be just cold
enough for a lake response however confidence is low at this time.
Moisture will likely increase as the cold front crosses the region
Wednesday night through Thursday. A mix of rain and snow showers is
possible during this time.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are likely the first week
of 2024.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS IFR/MVFR flight conditions are found. Patches of
fog and drizzle will start the TAFs, but drier air from the south
will bring some improvement to the TAF region today. Western New
York TAF sites should return to MVFR/VFR flight conditions and have
the drizzle and light showers end, while lingering deep low level
moisture east of Lake Ontario likely continues the IFR ceiling
heights along with some drizzle or light rain showers around.

A cold front will drop across the TAF region tonight from north to
south. Initially rain showers upon the front will change over the
snow as cold air deepens. Visibilities within the snow will drop to
IFR, while ceiling heights will again drop to MVFR or IFR.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain/snow showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
...Dense Fog Advisory for the St Lawrence River...

A southwest to west flow today will increase to around 15 to 20
knots on the Lakes as surface high pressure noses northward to
increase the surface pressure gradient between a surface trough that
lies near Lake Ontario. This flow will bring waves over 4 feet on
the eastern end of Lake Erie, as well as increase waves to over 4
feet on Lake Ontario.

Will issue small craft advisories to account for this increase in
winds and waves. Winds will begin to diminish on Lake Erie later
today, and tonight on Lake Ontario. The surface trough to the north
will drop southward, with winds veering to northwesterly by early
Saturday morning. Cold air advection behind the front will continue
waves choppy on the Lakes, but likely below small craft thresholds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
     008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
         evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM
         EST this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
         Saturday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
         Saturday for LOZ044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
         Saturday for LOZ045.
         Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 28, 4:29 PM EST, 10 hours 59 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

NYZ001>003-010>013-085-292130-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Southern Erie-
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019>021-292130-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-014-292130-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-292130-
Jefferson-Lewis-
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-292130-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-292130-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-292130-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-292130-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
429 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2023Every small craft advisory in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.