Small Craft Advisory 116, NWS Buffalo, NY

358 
WHUS71 KBUF 031551
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

LOZ042-043-040000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0115.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1051 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...East to northeast winds 15 to 25 knots through this
  afternoon will become westerly to 30 knots tonight into Monday
  morning, before diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late Monday. 
  Waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-040000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.231204T0000Z-231204T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1051 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-040000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.231204T0300Z-231205T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1051 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-040000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.231204T0300Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1051 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

534 
WHUS71 KBUF 032054
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

LOZ042-043-040500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0115.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
354 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-040500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.231204T0000Z-231204T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
354 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-040500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.231204T0300Z-231205T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
354 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-040500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.231204T0300Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
354 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

236 
WHUS71 KBUF 040451
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1151 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

LOZ042-043-041300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0115.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1151 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-041300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231204T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1151 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-041300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1151 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-041300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1151 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

611 
WHUS71 KBUF 041144
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
644 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

LOZ042-043-041945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0115.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
644 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-041945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231204T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
644 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-041945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
644 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-041945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
644 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

939 
WHUS71 KBUF 041754
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1254 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

LOZ042-043-050200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0115.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1254 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-042100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231204T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1254 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-050200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1254 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-050200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1254 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

578 
WHUS71 KBUF 042054
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

LEZ040-041-042200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231204T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
354 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
Winds and waves will remain elevated but have fallen below small
craft criteria.

$$

LOZ042-043-050300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0115.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
354 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-050500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
354 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-050300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
354 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds

205 
WHUS71 KBUF 050239
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
939 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

LOZ045-050345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
939 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will remain elevated but have fallen below SCA
minimums. 

$$

LOZ042-043-050345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0115.000000T0000Z-231205T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
939 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves will remain elevated but have fallen below SCA
minimums. 

$$

LOZ044-050600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
939 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds

578 
WHUS71 KBUF 050541
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1241 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

LOZ044-050645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0116.000000T0000Z-231205T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1241 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have diminished.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Disorganized low pressure over the Ohio valley will approach our
forecast area during the day Sunday...and as it consolidates...it
will generate a soaking rain for much of Sunday into at least the
first part of Sunday night. Most areas will pick up a half inch of
rain with areas east of Lake Ontario will receive as much as an
inch. Colder air in the wake of the system will encourage the
leftover showery precipitation to mix with some snow at times late
Sunday night into Monday night. Only negligible snow accumulations
are anticipated though with NO real impacts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
Weak low pressure tracking along a stalled frontal boundary
across the Southern Tier will dissipate overnight. Weak dynamic
lift coupled with lots of low level moisture is resulting in
drizzle and fog late this evening with some steadier rain
showers mixed in. Precipitation will taper off gradually as the
surface low and associated wind fields weaken. However there
will continue to be lots of low moisture and fog overnight.
Greatest reductions in visibility will be across higher terrain,
where cloud bases will intersect the ground. Temperatures will
remain nearly steady in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The region will be situated between two weak low pressure systems
Sunday morning. A surface trough will persist across the area
with northeast flow across the Saint Lawrence Valley and Lake
Ontario and a southerly flow across southern portions of western
NY. A shortwave trough over the Mid- western states will approach
the region the first part of Sunday. Low pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic region will move north while low pressure over the Mid-
west moves east and these two systems will merge near, if not
over the forecast area Sunday afternoon. Initially, strong
forcing and moisture advection from the Atlantic will move into
western and central NY Sunday morning. Widespread, light to
moderate rain will move from south to north across the forecast
area. There is uncertainty in the exact location of the surface
low as it moves into the forecast area, however widespread rain
will spread across the remainder of the region by Sunday
afternoon. There could be a period where a dry slot enters
western NY Sunday afternoon. This would lower chances for
widespread rain before filing back in with support from the
approaching shortwave trough. Rainfall amounts will average 0.25
inches to 0.50 inches for most areas, and up to around 0.75
east of Lake Ontario. High temperatures will reach the low to
mid 40s east of Lake Ontario to the upper 40s to low 50s across
the western Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday evening starts off quite wet with widespread light to
moderate rain still lifting across the region. Rain will be
driven by PVA ahead of sharp negative tilted shortwave tracking
across the lower Great Lakes along with divergence aloft of
strong 175+ kt jet riding ahead of this trough from Tennessee
Valley to New England and moisture advection over especially
from Finger Lakes to North Country on nose of 45-50kt low-level
jet. Main sfc-H85 low tracks as close as Lake Ontario toward St.
Lawrence River Sunday evening into the early overnight hours.
Initially that track favors strong ESE-SE winds but these
quickly shift to the SW as the low shifts by to the north.
Forecast soundings indicate those SW winds will be gusty as the
stronger winds will be occurring as cooler air arrives from the
west. Gusts may reach 30-35 mph near the lakes and across the
Niagara Frontier with 25-35 mph elsewhere. Peak period for
stronger winds will be early Sunday evening through early
overnight hours. Steady precipitation will taper through the
night, with the cold air eventually changing rain to a mix of
rain/snow late Sunday night over the higher terrain of western
and north central New York. Snow accumulations late Sunday night
will be very minimal as sfc temps will only have fallen into
the low to mid 30s at the coldest.

Monday and Monday night, it becomes just cold enough for at least a
weak lake response as temps at top of fairly shallow inversion fall
to -8c to -10c. Mean winds initially favor higher terrain of WNY and
the Tug Hill on a 250-260 flow for some light snow showers on Monday
but these steering winds eventually shift to the NW as the low
moves farther east and high pressure shifts across the Great Lakes.
Soundings show lowering inversions as this happens with only very
top of the lake effect convective layer reaching the DGZ. Long story
short is that any lake effect late Monday into Monday night will be
light and scattered and be low impact. Marginal nature of low-level
temps shows up too as highs on Monday could still reach near 40
across the lower elevations. Lows Monday night will be in the upper
20s to lower 30s, so really not all that cold.

Late Monday night into Tuesday a stronger embedded shortwave trough
in the mean NW flow troughing eastern Canada/Great Lakes/northeast
will swing across the lower Great Lakes. Strength and track of the
wave is not quite certain (main difference in how far north the wave
tracks), but it does appear it will come close enough to produce
areas of light snow over southwest NYS (maybe 1" total over higher
terrain). Once the wave passes, a slightly cooler NW flow will
develop across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Though moisture is
limited and inversions low, could be a spray of scattered snow
showers mainly southeast of both lakes later Tuesday night as what
moisture is there will be intersecting the DGZ. All areas in the CWA
will see min temps fall into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday broad low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coastline will
slide further east and out to sea...while high pressure and drier
air over the Upper Great Lakes gradually settles into the Lower
Lakes region. Lingering cold northerly to northwesterly cyclonic
flow on the backside of the departing low will lead to some
scattered snow showers south and southeast of the lakes Wednesday
morning...with these thinning out in coverage in the afternoon as
the ridge approaches and provides increasing drying and subsidence.
Otherwise highs will be a bit below normal...with these ranging from
the upper 20s across the higher terrain to the lower to mid 30s
elsewhere.

Wednesday night and Thursday the axis of the surface ridge will
slide off to our southeast...while another broad/elongated surface
trough develops across the Upper Great Lakes. The ensuing warm air
advection pattern across our region will help to squelch any
lingering weak lake response Wednesday night...then will bring a
more general chance of snow and rain showers to our area during the
day Thursday. As for temps...expect lows in the upper teens to mid
20s Wednesday night to be followed by highs ranging from the upper
20s/lower 30s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 30s
elsewhere on Thursday.

Thursday night and Friday a shortwave will ripple east-southeastward
from Minnesota to southern Ontario...and in the process will
encourage a wave of low pressure to develop and track through the
aforementioned broader-scale surface trough in a similar manner.
With this wave remaining to our north...the warm advection pattern
across our area will continue with scattered snow showers mixing
with and then changing over to predominantly rain between late
Thursday night and Friday. Temps will also continue on an upward
arc...with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday evening giving
way to rising readings overnight...with highs on Friday then likely
to climb to the mid 30s to lower 40s east of Lake Ontario...and to
the mid to upper 40s across much of Western New York.

By early next weekend the above system should be weakening and
sliding off to our northeast. This should result in a general
reduction in precipitation chances across our region in time for
Saturday...with the lack of significant cold advection in its wake
also allowing temperatures to remain at above normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wealth of moisture trapped beneath a staunch inversion will keep
IFR to LIFR cigs in place across the majority of the region for the
remainder of the overnight. Oddly enough...the exception will be
found across parts of the Srn Tier where MVFR conditions will be
more prevalent.

On Sunday...disorganized low pressure will approach from the Ohio
valley. This will result in fairly widespread rain moving into the
area with cigs largely remaining at IFR levels.

While the rain will become more showery Sunday night...colder air
wrapping in behind the passing storm system will encourage the pcpn
to at least mix with some snow showers at times. Meanwhile...cigs
will remain low at IFR levels for most areas.

Outlook...
Monday...MVFR/IFR cigs in scattered rain and snow showers.
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will increase on Lake Ontario late tonight with the approach
of low pressure from the Ohio Valley. Issued small craft headlines
for Western Lake Ontario due to the easterly winds. Elsewhere expect
winds to remain below small craft criteria through the daytime hours
Sunday.

Southwesterly winds will increase after the surface low passes by
Sunday night, which will likely require more widespread small craft
headlines.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042-
         043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-040800-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
251 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-040800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
251 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf