Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Buffalo, NY

738 
WWUS51 KBUF 262135
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
535 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NYC069-117-262200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-230626T2200Z/
Wayne NY-Ontario NY-
535 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO COUNTIES...

At 534 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Palmyra to near Tyrone, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Canandaigua, Newark, Marion, Lyons, Palmyra, Clifton Springs,
Clyde, Phelps, and Sodus.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 42 and 43.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 7730 4319 7720 4330 7684 4302 7680
      4301 7696 4287 7696 4286 7698 4276 7697
      4276 7730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 226DEG 27KT 4307 7716 4245 7706 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

PP

731 
WWUS51 KBUF 262200
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
600 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NYC069-117-262210-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-230626T2200Z/
Wayne NY-Ontario NY-
600 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN
ONTARIO COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been allowed to expire.  However gusty winds and heavy rain are still
possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
western New York.

LAT...LON 4278 7730 4319 7720 4330 7684 4302 7680
      4301 7696 4287 7696 4286 7698 4276 7697
      4276 7730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 248DEG 26KT 4308 7712 4246 7702 

$$

PP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes this afternoon,
bringing some addtional showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Some of these storms will be capable of producing very heavy
rain, gusty winds, and large hail. Unsettled weather will
continue through the middle of the week as this low moves slowly
across the region. Dry weather then returns Thursday through
Friday as high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vertically stacked low/trough across eastern Michigan today will
slowly east across Western NY and Lake Ontario on Tuesday. This
approaching trough and daytime heating will result in increasing
instability today. This will support widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. These will mainly be driven by subtle
features such as subtle shortwaves embedded in the upper low, lake
breeze boundaries, and differential heating. Unlike the past two
days, there will be a 30kt SSW flow at 700 mb which will promote
some storm movement. Short MBE vectors suggest the potential for
training with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches this could
result in localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Exact locations
will be difficult to pin point, with urban areas and areas with
higher terrain typically more vulnerable to flooding. WPC has the
entire region in a marginal risk for heavy rainfall.

This has also caused some severe weather already today, and this
risk will continue through early evening. The primary threat is
strong winds, but a few storms may also produce large hail.
Otherwise, muggy conditions will be the theme today with highs
in the 70s to low 80s.

Tonight...showers and thunderstorms will move east across the CWA
and weaken as instability wanes. We should then see a relative lull
again in convective activity as the mid-level and surface low inches
a bit closer to western New York. Chances drop off, but can't
completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm overnight.
Otherwise, another humid and muggy night with lows in the 60s.

Tuesday...weaker flow aloft as the upper low moves into Western NY.
Expecting a relative lull in shower and thunderstorm coverage
Tuesday morning, in the absence of large scale lift. Developing
diurnal instability and the approach of stronger ascent just ahead
of the mid level trough axis will then allow showers and
thunderstorms to become more widespread Tuesday afternoon. PWAT
values remain around 1.5", will combine with relatively slow storm
movement to bring localized very heavy downpours and an isolated
flood risk. It appears this risk is slightly higher across eastern
portions of the forecast area. Shear and instability are generally
lacking for an organized risk of severe weather, although a few
isolated storms with gusty winds are possible. Otherwise, it will be
cooler with highs in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night and Wednesday the approaching mid level closed low
will open up into a trough and move very slowly east across the
eastern Great Lakes, finally drifting into eastern NY and western
New England Wednesday night. Numerous convectively enhanced
shortwaves will move through the mean longwave trough and provide
periods of ascent, with ample deep moisture in place. This will
continue to support unsettled weather with periods of showers and a
few thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms will wane Tuesday evening, first across Western NY and
last east of Lake Ontario. Ongoing large scale forcing for ascent
associated with the passage of the mid level trough along with
lingering deep moisture will continue to produce areas of showers
overnight.

Wednesday the trough axis will continue to march slowly east,
placing more favorable ascent and deep moisture east of Lake Ontario
where the greatest rain chance and risk of thunderstorms will
reside. Farther west, the arrival of drier air and subsidence will
allow for decreasing chances of rain through the day, and possibly
some partial clearing later in the afternoon. A few showers will
continue east of Lake Ontario Wednesday night, with the rest of the
area becoming dry with partial clearing overnight as drier air
continues to filter in from the west.

Thursday and Thursday night the mid level trough axis will continue
to linger over eastern NY and New England. This will maintain more
cloud cover and a chance of a few showers east of Lake Ontario.
Otherwise, surface high pressure building into the central and
eastern Great Lakes will allow the rest of the area to become mainly
dry Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast uncertainty continues next weekend with normal timing and
placement differences in operational model and ensemble guidance. In
general, a trough will move from the Upper Midwest Saturday into the
Great Lakes through Monday. Southwest flow in advance of this trough
will capture moisture and instability and spread it northeast into
the Great Lakes and New England, with increasing chances of a few
showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main concern will be thunderstorms which will be across Western
NY through this evening. These will be driven by subtle features,
and will be challenging to forecast much in advance at any given
location. In general, coverage should diminish after 22Z, with only
scattered/isolated showers and storms after 00Z. Mainly VFR outside
of thunderstorms, with areas of IFR in thunderstorms.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight may result in
localized IFR flight conditions. Otherwise, expecting a mix of
VFR/MVFR cigs due to residual low moisture.

Mainly rain-free Tuesday morning with just scattered showers through
16Z. After that coverage will increase Tuesday afternoon with a risk
of thunderstorms and localized IFR flight conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR or lower with
occasional showers and a chance of a few thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly east of Rochester.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain relatively low through tonight as a
weak pressure gradient remains in place over the eastern Great
Lakes. Winds will pick up a bit on Lake Erie Tuesday, producing
a period of choppy conditions.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and
Tuesday, especially around peak heating which these storms could
produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and higher wave
action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...AR/Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
453 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NYZ003>008-013-014-021-272100-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-
Ontario-Allegany-
453 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected Tuesday. A few storms may produce localized heavy downpours
and may result in isolated flooding. A few storms may also produce
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-272100-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Southern Erie-
453 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected Tuesday. A few storms may produce localized heavy downpours
and may result in isolated flooding. A few storms may also produce
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-272100-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
453 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-SLZ022-024-272100-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
453 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
428 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Buffalo           42.88N 78.89W
06/26/2023  M59 MPH          LEZ041             NY   C-Man Station

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
432 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNW Oswego            43.47N 76.51W
06/26/2023  M38 MPH          LOZ044             NY   C-Man Station

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
437 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NNW Irondequoit       43.26N 77.60W
06/26/2023  M39 MPH          LOZ043             NY   C-Man Station

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
448 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Dunkirk            42.50N 79.35W
06/26/2023  M47 MPH          LEZ041             NY   C-Man Station

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
455 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NYZ004-014-262200-
Ontario NY-Wayne NY-
455 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Wayne and Ontario
Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Williamson to near Avoca. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, pea size hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Heavy rains could cause flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Canandaigua, Ontario, Newark, Williamson, Marion, Lyons,
Palmyra, Victor, Bristol, Clifton Springs, Clyde, Phelps, Sodus,
Bloomfield, Naples, Rushville, Chimney Bluffs State Park, Farmington,
and Walworth.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 42 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4267 7749 4304 7739 4304 7737 4331 7736
      4333 7714 4331 7697 4335 7681 4339 7672
      4303 7672 4301 7696 4276 7697 4276 7731
      4267 7737 4258 7737 4258 7749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 248DEG 21KT 4325 7722 4248 7739

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
506 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Falconer          42.11N 79.20W
06/26/2023                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Allen street in falconer closed due to
            flooding. Widespread ponding of water on
            numerous roads in Jamestown.

&&