Alert archive / New York / High Wind Warnings in 2023

High Wind Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 15, 20234 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this high wind warning at Feb 15, 2023, 3:58 AM EST for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 15, 2023, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2023, 3:58 AM EST (08:58 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 15, 2023, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 15, 2023, 6:55 PM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 15, 3:57 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 593 Wsw Sanborn, NYASOS STATION KIAG NIAGARA FALLS AIRPORT.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 23 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2023-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2023-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 70 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2554 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

175 
WWUS71 KBUF 150858
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
358 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

NYZ001-002-010-011-151700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.230215T1200Z-230216T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0002.230215T1200Z-230216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
358 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-151700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.230215T1100Z-230216T0000Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
358 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ003-013-014-151700-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.230215T1200Z-230216T0000Z/
Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Geneseo, and Canandaigua
358 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-151700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
358 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ012-151700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.230215T1200Z-230216T0000Z/
Wyoming-
Including the city of Warsaw
358 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wyoming county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

TMA
3 follow-up statements
712 
WWUS71 KBUF 151433
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
933 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

NYZ001-002-010-011-152245-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
933 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 55 to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down a few trees and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-152245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
933 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ012-152245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Wyoming-
Including the city of Warsaw
933 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wyoming county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ003-013-014-152245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Geneseo, and Canandaigua
933 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-152245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
933 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
530 
WWUS71 KBUF 151919
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

NYZ007-008-152030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
219 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts will generally remain 40 mph or less this afternoon.

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
219 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts of 55 to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. Strongest wind gusts will
  occur in a brief window of time during the mid to late
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down a few trees and power
  lines. Isolated power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
219 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ012-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Wyoming-
Including the city of Warsaw
219 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming county.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ003-013-014-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Geneseo, and Canandaigua
219 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Monroe, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
649 
WWUS71 KBUF 152355
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

NYZ001-002-010-011-160100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
655 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

While winds may still gust to 40 mph early this evening, they will
continue to gradually diminish overnight. The threat for damaging
winds has ended. 

$$

NYZ003-012>014-019-085-160100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230216T0000Z/
Monroe-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Rochester, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
655 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

While winds may still gust to 35 mph this evening, the risk for 
damaging winds has ended.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Feb 15, 12:31 AM EST, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 12:31 AM EST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1231 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Thursday. The warmth
will be accompanied by very gusty winds, mainly on Wednesday and
again later Thursday night and early Friday. A few spotty showers
may occur later tonight and Wednesday, but more widespread rain will
arrive later Thursday and Thursday night as low pressure crosses the
eastern Great Lakes. Much colder air will move back into the region
Friday with a few light snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WEDNESDAY...

A strong southern stream Pacific shortwave will move quickly from
the central Plains to near Lake Superior by daybreak, then to
western Quebec by Wednesday evening. A strong surface low will take
a similar track, with the low bottoming out over Wisconsin late
tonight and then starting to weaken later Wednesday afternoon as it
moves into western Quebec.

Strong warm advection ahead of the approaching system will
overspread the Lower Great Lakes through Wednesday morning bringing
increasing and lowering mid level clouds. The warm advection will be
strong enough to support a non diurnal trend for most areas...
especially over the western counties where minimum temps should be
reached by around midnight. Some areas may experience temps that
will then recover by some 5 to 10 degrees...mainly west of the
Genesee valley.

The low levels will remain quite dry tonight, but forcing may be strong
enough that a few scattered light showers may reach the ground in
spots later tonight and Wednesday morning. Any lingering showers
will end Wednesday morning for most of the area, with dry weather
and some sunshine then prevailing. The one exception will be east
of Lake Ontario where lingering forcing and moisture may support
a few scattered showers into the afternoon.

A strong 60+ knot low level jet in the warm sector of the system
will arrive late tonight, then peak across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday. Stronger wind gusts will first materialize along the Lake
Erie shore of Chautauqua and southern Erie counties later tonight
and early Wednesday as downslope acceleration increases, with
localized gusts of around 50 mph expected.

For Wednesday, this is not a typical strong wind setup by any means
for our area, with strong winds here almost always occuring in cold
advection regimes behind strong cold fronts. That said, forecast
model soundings continue to suggest lapse rates steepening enough in
at least partial sunshine to allow for favorable mixing of a portion
of the strong winds from aloft. Another more localized effect may
also come into play that is commonly seen in the spring. Stronger
winds aloft will essentially downslope off the dome of stable, cold,
dense air over Lake Erie and accelerate down the sloping isentropic
surfaces just northeast of the lake, locally enhancing winds from
near the Buffalo Airport north into Niagara County. Wind gusts may
reach 55 mph in this area, and there is some risk of higher warning
criteria wind gusts if the stronger wind field aloft and steeper
lapse rates of the GFS soundings verify. Elsewhere across the
region, expect gusts of 35-45 mph to be common. There is some risk
of 50+ mph gusts locally in the western Finger Lakes as well where
winds tend to channel down the north/south valleys.

Temperatures will SOAR on Wednesday in strong SSW flow and warm
advection. Downslope winds will add several degrees to temperatures
on the lake plains of Western NY. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s
for many low elevations across Western NY, 50s for the high terrain
and North Country. Daily record highs may be in jeopardy. Record
highs are 63 in Buffalo (1954), 61 in Rochester (1949), and 56 in
Watertown (1954).

Wednesday night winds will quickly diminish as the surface low
weakens across Quebec and the low level jet departs and weakens.
Otherwise expect dry weather and partly cloudy skies overnight as a
weak bubble of high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.
Temperatures will remain mild, with lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper level ridge over the eastern seaboard will build
north across the Northeast while an upper level trough over the
northern Plains moves east into the Great Lakes region Thursday.
Coupled upper level jet streaks will track east while surface
low pressure deepens over the Ohio Valley Thursday. Mainly quiet
weather across western and north central NY as surface high
vacates to the east Thursday morning. A warm front will enter
western NY by Thursday afternoon. A surge of moisture will move
into western NY and rain showers will spread across the region
Thursday afternoon. Dry weather will persist near and east of
Lake Ontario through Thursday. High temperatures will depend on
the location of the warm front Thursday. Highs will likely range
from the mid to upper 40s east of Lake Ontario to the mid to
upper 50s across the western Southern Tier. Areas in between
will range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

The surface low will track from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great
Lakes region Thursday night. There remains uncertainty in the track
of the low. A more western track will allow more unstable air and
higher dewpoints to move into western NY Thursday afternoon-evening.
These ingredients coupled with a strong wind field would bring a
chance for thunderstorms ahead and along the approaching cold front.
A more eastern track reduces the potential for thunderstorms. Either
way, moisture advection with abnormally high PWATs for mid-February
will result in showers across the region Thursday night. Amounts
could be 0.5-0.75 across far western NY and the Tug Hill region. Low
temperatures will fall to the upper 20s across far western NY and
the northern Tug Hill region to the mid 30s across the Finger Lakes
region and central NY.

The surface low will likely be east-northeast of the region Friday
morning. A strong cold front will move east across the region late
Thursday night into daybreak Friday. Rain showers will quickly
change to snow showers and a flash freeze is possible late Thursday
night into daybreak Friday morning. Gusty winds are expected behind
the cold front however winds aloft diminish quickly through Friday.
Gusts up to 40mph are possible but should diminish through the day.
A quick inch of snowfall is possible across the entire region Friday
morning. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to -14C by Friday
afternoon, plenty cold enough for lake effect processes.
Unfortunately, for snow lovers, very dry and subsidence will move
into the region through Friday night. Lake effect snow will be
localized to areas southeast of the Lakes with a few inches
possible. Temperatures will fall Friday with highs met in the
morning. Temperatures will be in the 20s by Friday afternoon.

Lake effect snow showers will end east-southeast of the Lakes Friday
night. Lows will reach the teens to single digits east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will will from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic
region this weekend. Dry weather is expected. Strong, westerly winds
may produce gusty winds Saturday across western and north central
NY. Temperatures will be near normal Saturday before getting back
above normal by Sunday. A upper level trough will approach the Great
Lakes region Monday before retracting to the north into Tuesday. A
southern stream system may form along a cold front Monday into
Tuesday and rain and snow showers are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Increasing warm advection will bring thickening and lowering mid
level clouds from southwest to northeast overnight. A few scattered
light showers may develop through early Wednesday, but the light
nature of the showers and dry low levels will keep VSBY VFR.

A strong low level jet will move into the area tonight and remain in
place Wednesday. A low level inversion will initially hold the
stronger winds aloft, resulting in a period of low level wind shear
tonight. Late tonight and Wednesday the stronger winds will begin to
mix to the surface, eliminating the low level wind shear at the
expense of strong surface wind gusts. Expect 30-40 knot gusts
areawide on Wednesday. Gusts will be locally higher across Western
NY, from the Lake Erie shore northeast across the Niagara Frontier,
up to 45+ knots.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR, deteriorating to Areas of MVFR/local IFR with
showers developing later Thursday afternoon and night. Windy
Thursday night.
Friday...MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow showers southeast of
the lakes. Windy.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Downslope winds will increase along the Lake Erie shore later
tonight, then gusty south winds will increase areawide and become
southwest on Wednesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions across
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will gradually diminish from west
to east Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for NYZ001-002-010>012.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 AM EST
         Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to
         1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
         Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
         Thursday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM
         EST Thursday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 14, 2:00 PM EST, 13 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

NYZ003>005-013-014-020-021-151900-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Southwest winds may gust 35 to 45 mph Wednesday, with a few gusts
approaching 50 mph possible in the western Finger Lakes.

Southwest winds may gust over 40 mph later Thursday night and early
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-151900-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Southwest winds may gust over 40 mph later Thursday night and early
Friday.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010>012-151900-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Southwest winds may gust over 40 mph later Thursday night and early
Friday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-151900-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-151900-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-151900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-151900-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-151900-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
200 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

South winds may gust 40 to 50 mph Wednesday, mainly across the
northern slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau.

Southwest winds may gust over 40 mph later Thursday night and early
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

Nearby

High Wind Warnings in New York, 2023Every high wind warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.