Gale Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

262 
WHUS71 KBUF 201445
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
945 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

LOZ042-202245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-230221T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
945 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, west 
  winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through 
  Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-202245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-230221T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
945 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 15 to 20 knots 
  and waves 3 to 6 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, west winds 
  to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through 
  Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-202245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.230220T1600Z-230221T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
945 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 knots and waves 
  12 to 16 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through 
  Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-202245-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
945 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

474 
WHUS71 KBUF 202054
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

LOZ042-210500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-230221T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
354 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-210500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-230221T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
354 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through 
  Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-210500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-230221T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
354 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, waves 3 to 5 feet. For 
  the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 
  feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Tuesday morning through 
  Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-210500-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
354 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

830 
WHUS71 KBUF 202349
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
649 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

LOZ043-044-210800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-230221T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
649 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-210800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-230221T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
649 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062>065-210800-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
649 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake 
  Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

938 
WHUS71 KBUF 210314
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1014 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

LOZ042>045-062>065-211100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1014 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario.

* WHEN...From 10 AM EST Tuesday through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

397 
WHUS71 KBUF 210903
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
403 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

LOZ042-062-211715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0005.230221T1400Z-230222T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
403 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-211715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.230221T1500Z-230222T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0005.230221T1600Z-230222T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
403 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-211715-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.230221T1400Z-230222T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
403 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-211715-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0025.230221T1400Z-230222T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
403 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
400 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will produce some scattered rain and wet snow
showers as it pushes through our region this morning...with a second
cold front then generating another round of more widespread rain and
wet snow showers as it crosses our area Tuesday. Our attention will
then turn to a large and complex storm system that will generate
widespread mixed precipitation and potentially some accumulating ice
from later Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure across far northern Quebec will slide its trailing weak
cold front across our area this morning. With this feature starved
for upper level support and only accompanied by a narrow swath of
deeper moisture...any showers will be largely scattered in nature
and mainly will occur where orographic influences provide a bit of
an added mesoscale boost...i.e., across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and North Country. Given the fairly mild airmass in
place out ahead of the front and only modest cold air advection in
its wake...the bulk of any showers will just fall in the form of
plain rain...with only some very limited wet snow mixing in across
the hilltops (thus any accumulations should be negligible). Much
drier air working in behind the front will then bring about a return
to dry weather this afternoon...with some partial sunshine also
developing from northwest to southeast. Highs will generally range
from the upper 30s across the higher terrain to the lower 40s across
the lower elevations...with some spots in the Finger Lakes still
managing to reach the mid 40s.

Tonight the axis of narrow surface-based ridging will slide across
New York State this evening...before pushing off into New England
overnight as a fairly compact but also energetic area of low
pressure pushes across the Upper Great Lakes. Consequently...we can
expect dry conditions along with some partial cloud cover this
evening...followed by increasing clouds out ahead of the next system
overnight. While we still can't rule out some scattered light
rain/snow showers trying to push into the Southern Tier very late
tonight...the bulk of the overnight period also currently looks to
be mainly dry. Lows will range from the upper 20s across far western
New York to the upper teens across the North Country...where skies
will remain partly cloudy the longest. The minimum temps will
generally occur between the evening and early overnight hours...
before giving way to rising temperatures overnight.

On Tuesday the compact low will quickly slide east across Southern
Ontario and into the middle Saint Lawrence Valley...while sweeping
its trailing cold front across our area between the morning and
first half of the afternoon. Compared to today's frontal boundary...
this second cold front will be accompanied by much better mid/upper
level support and consequently stronger forcing. This should be
enough for the front to generate a swath of numerous to fairly
widespread showers as it traverses our region...with these lasting a
few hours or so at most locations. An influx of milder air out ahead
of the front will also again allow the vast majority of the
precipitation to fall in the form of just plain rain showers...save
for the higher terrain where some mixed rain/snow or wet snow will
be possible. This will be especially true across the Tug Hill and
the western Adirondack foothills...where some slushy accums of an
inch or two are not out of the question.

In the wake of the frontal passage...strengthening cold air
advection will then help to at least partially mix down some of the
lingering 35-45 knot flow in the 925-850 mb layer to the surface...
setting the stage for a rather windy afternoon. This will especially
be the case northeast of Lake Erie early Tuesday afternoon...and
then along and inland from the south shore of Lake Ontario through
the mid to late afternoon hours...where some gusts to 50 mph appear
possible and some Wind Advisories may eventually be needed. As for
temps...these will mainly peak in the 40s out ahead of the front
before dropping back into the 30s in its wake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...Impactful winter storm with snow, sleet and ice possible later
Wednesday into Thursday...

Narrow ridge of high pressure follows quickly on heels of low
pressure system exiting across New England. Winds will diminish
quickly along with a brief period of dry weather. Temperatures will
drop into the 20s under the ridge.

On Wednesday, weak lead wave running along mid-level baroclinic zone
in right entrance region of upper jet could produce light snow in
the morning, mainly western NY. Attention quickly turns to much
stronger shortwave currently currently closed off toward Baja
California. This wave quickly lifts northeast, reaching the Ohio
Valley late Wednesday afternoon with sfc low over western Ohio
Valley and sfc-H85 warm front lifting toward lower Great Lakes.
Deep, moist isentropic ascent atop the warm front along with strong
RRQ jet forcing will support a slug of heavy precipitation lifting
steadily across the region from southwest to northeast, maximizing
on Wednesday evening, with lighter precip filling in behind this
later on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as warm air advection
persists atop the warm front but with less favorable jet forcing.

As the heavier precip is occurring Wednesday evening, there will be
a sharp temp gradient across the region from southwest to northeast.
This is not just at the sfc, but also aloft. This will hold the key
as to what ptype ultimately occurs. Overall the scenario would
support mainly snow North Country, a transition zone of sleet and
freezing rain over much of western NY to the Finger Lakes with
enough low-level warming to result in plain rain over most of the
Southern Tier. The warm layer edges north through the night, so
these zones may start to shift north as well. One trend that is
emerging is a deep, cold layer below the warm air aloft which may
lead to more sleet than freezing rain in some locations. Where ptype
does remains freezing rain, significant ice accums could occur with
potentially over 0.25 inch of ice. Snow could be very heavy over the
North Country, so long as there is no disruption from warm layer
aloft.

It is a very messy and complicated scenario and there are model
differences with how much QPF occurs Wednesday night, in regard to
how far north the warm layer gets on Wednesday night and also how
cold, deep the freezing layer is below the warm layer aloft which
will impact whether freezing rain or sleet occurs. Seems pretty
certain that winter headlines (possible watches for some areas) will
be needed eventually, but for now this system and its multiple
hazards and impacts will remain mentioned in the HWO.

On Thursday, snow will continue across the North Country, but most
guidance indicates there will be mixing with sleet or freezing rain
as the warm layer gradually lifts north. Even as this occurs, low-
level cold air with sfc temps staying below freezing likely will
hold along immediate Lake Ontario shoreline from Rochester to the
west, so freezing rain, sleet could continue there. Elsewhere south
of Lake Ontario, ptype will mainly change to light rain. Temps in
the afternoon on Thursday will range from 20s across the North Country,
to the lower 30s near the Lake Ontario shore, to as warm as the 50s
over the Southern Tier. Caution should be advised with all these
details and specifics this far out as this is the forecast at this
time, so any shift in this sharp temp gradient will have big impact
on expected ptype. Main takeaway is to stay tuned as this forecast
is far from locked in at this point.

Late Thursday second shortwave trough, that should be noted is
currently digging south along the British Columbia coast, is
expected to lift from the central Plains to the Great Lakes while
flattening out. Associated sfc low quickly sweeps across Great Lakes
before crossing the northeast on Thursday night. As this low passes
by, colder air will charge in and switch any lingering mixed
precipitation or rain to snow in rather quick fashion. There are
differences in how far north the low tracks and this will determine
if strong westerly winds occur. That would be important where ptype
on Thursday remains frozen (Fzra, Pl, Sn) as any strong winds would
lead to possible downed tree limbs or power lines as colder temps
freeze up things further. Temps which start the evening still in the
50s over the Southern Tier will fall into the 20s all areas by late
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong Canadian high pressure builds toward the lower Great Lakes
Friday. Flow around the high will send a shot of arctic air into the
region with H85 temps down to -17c to -20c. The northwest flow will
bring lake effect snow with some accums southeast of the lakes and
light snow showers elsewhere. This setup in terms of moisture and
cold air looks very similar to what occurred last Friday when some
light to moderate snow amounts fell across higher terrain southeast
of the lakes. Temperatures on Friday will remain steady mainly in
the teens for most of the area. This interlude of cold air and lake
effect is brief though as the Canadian high quickly shifts to the
east across the northeast and to New England shutting down the lake
response.

Pattern remains active for the weekend and beyond. Shortwave trough
dropping through downstream of plains ridge will bring a chance of
mainly snow showers at times during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slowly approaching cold front will bring increasing and gradually
lowering clouds from northwest to southeast early this morning...
however flight conditions are expected to remain VFR and mainly
dry...with just an outside chance of some spotty rain showers east
of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

The cold front will push across our region and bring a round of
lower VFR to MVFR ceilings between this morning and early this
afternoon...along with a brief potential for mainly scattered rain
and wet snow showers east of both lakes. Following the frontal
passage...improving conditions will overspread the area from
northwest to southeast during the afternoon.

General VFR conditions will then prevail through most if not all of
tonight as a narrow bubble of high pressure passes across New York
State...with just another gradual increase in mid and high clouds
expected out ahead of the next surface low/cold front working across
the Upper Great Lakes. The one exception to this may come across the
Southern Tier...where a developing southerly flow may help to advect
some low level moisture/MVFR ceilings northward from Pennsylvania
late in the night.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR...with IFR possible in rain and wet snow showers.
Wednesday...Mainly MVFR with mainly snow developing during the
afternoon south of Lake Ontario.
Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will cross the region this morning. Freshening
west-northwesterly winds in its wake will support a round of Small
Craft Advisories on Lake Ontario...which are in effect as outlined
below.

A narrow ridge of high pressure will then quickly pass across New
York State tonight and bring a brief period of lighter winds and
lower waves...before another area of low pressure passes by to our
north and swings a stronger cold front across our region on Tuesday.
Freshening southeasterlies and southerlies out ahead of the front
will quickly give way to stronger westerlies in its wake...with
winds likely increasing to around 30 knots on Lake Erie and possibly
to Gale Force on Lake Ontario. To cover the latter potential...a
Gale Watch has been issued for Lake Ontario for Tuesday afternoon
and evening...with Small Craft Advisories likely to eventually be
needed otherwise.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
         evening for LOZ042.
         Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         this evening for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         this evening for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
412 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2023

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-200915-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
412 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Confidence continues to increase that a wintry mix of freezing rain,
sleet, and snow will occur later Wednesday into Thursday. Significant
accumulation of ice as well as several inches of wet snow is possible.

A very sharp temperature gradient is expected across the region from
south to north during this time, so there remains a high amount of
uncertainty as to which locations across western and north central
New York will have the highest chances to see impactful ice and snow
accumulations.

Strong and gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday night as a
cold front sweeps across the region changing any wintry mix to snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-200915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
412 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA