Gale Warning 7, NWS Buffalo, NY

870 
WHUS71 KBUF 031516
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1016 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

LOZ042-032330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.230304T0000Z-230304T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1016 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds to 35 knots and waves 
  10 to 13 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, east 
  winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM 
  EST Saturday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST 
  this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-032330-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.230304T0000Z-230304T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1016 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-032330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.230303T1800Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1016 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-032330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.230303T1800Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1016 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-032330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.230303T2100Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1016 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-032330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.230303T2100Z-230304T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1016 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

841 
WHUS71 KBUF 032308
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
608 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

LOZ042-040715-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.230304T0000Z-230304T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
608 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...East winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-040715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.230304T0000Z-230304T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
608 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-040715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
608 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-040715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
608 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-040715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
608 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-040715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
608 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

803 
WHUS71 KBUF 040250
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
950 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

LOZ042-062-040900-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230304T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
950 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-041100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
950 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-041100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
950 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-041100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
950 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-041100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
950 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

404 
WHUS71 KBUF 040817
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
317 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

LOZ042-041700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230304T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
317 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...GALE WARNING IS REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds to 30 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-040930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230304T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
317 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished below gale force.

$$

LEZ040-041-041700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
317 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-041700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
317 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-041700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
317 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-041700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-230304T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
317 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1231 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will prevail tonight through early afternoon Friday as
high pressure settles into southeastern Canada. A wintry mix will
push into Western New York later Friday afternoon, with heavy snow
for a period of time during the evening hours across Western New
York, and then heavy snow east of Lake Ontario Friday Night. There
remains considerable uncertainty with how much snow will accumulate,
especially south of Lake Ontario. Lighter snow will continue through
Saturday before tapering off Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Post-frontal northwest flow will continue to produce areas of
stratus overnight. Lows will drop back into the 20s in most
areas, with teens for the North Country where skies will clear
overnight and allow for more radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Model guidance continues to show important track and thermal profile
differences for late Friday and Friday night, even now within 24
hours of the onset of the event. There remain sharp and significant
differences in extent of modeled snowfall especially from NYS
Thruway northward to the Lake Ontario shoreline, including the
Niagara Frontier and the Rochester Metro. It will be quite warm
Friday ahead of this system, with temperatures rising into the upper
30s or even lower 40s in many areas by early afternoon. Despite the
warm start, dynamic cooling will lead to any rain/snow mix quickly
becoming all wet snow shortly after the onset along and north of the
NY Thruway. After the initial onset, whether or not precipitation
stays all snow will depend on the eventual verification of the
surface low track. A farther north solution such as the NAM would
change many areas all the way up to the Lake Ontario shore quickly
to a cold rain in the evening, while some of the more southern
tracks such as the GFS and GEM would allow for precipitation to stay
mainly wet snow.

All possibilities are still on the table along and north of the NY
Thruway, from a slushy inch or two to potential impactful warning
criteria wet snowfall. Updated the forecast to trend snowfall upward
along and north of the NY Thruway given the look of 12Z and 18Z
model guidance. Forecast solid advisory amounts for counties
just south of Lake Ontario mainly Friday night into Saturday
morning. Hopefully the 00Z model guidance suite will begin to
converge on a common solution with the low track and thermal
profiles and start to yield higher confidence in snowfall
scenarios.

Different story east of Lake Ontario. Consensus continues to remain
locked in to what likely ends up a low-end warning scenario for
northern parts of Jefferson county and also across the higher
terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Even the warmer
model solutions would support this. For now, kept the Winter
Storm Watch going, but would expect this to be upgraded to a
warning on the mid shift when/if other advisories are issued for
parts of the rest of our forecast area in one fell swoop.

A closed 500 mb low spinning across southern New Mexico will track
across Texas tonight and then will move into the Ohio Valley on
Friday. A 979 mb surface reflection will mirror this through Friday,
before a coastal low develops late Friday night and into Saturday
morning. This will tap into GOMEX moisture resulting in QPFs of an
inch or a bit higher. Both the track of the surface and mid-level
low are important, since this will determine thermal profiles and
precipitation type and the potential for dry slotting to cut down on
precipitation amounts/rates. Does appear there is now a better
chance of a dry slot diminishing precip from south to north as early
as mid evening Friday and pushing into the early morning hours on
Saturday across much of the area south of Lake Ontario.

The warm layer, nose aloft, higher up at 800-750mb is a quick hitter
starting up on Friday evening and exiting well before daybreak on
Saturday over the Finger Lakes zones. Essentially, the sleet and ice
from this event looks minimal south of Lake Ontario compared to our
recent ice event. Ice accums now are mainly less than 0.10 inch
maximized over the interior southern Tier.

The strong mid-level warm air advection and divergence aloft that
drives the precip later Friday into Friday evening will slide off to
the east late Friday night, leaving lighter precipitation under a
broad trough for Saturday into Saturday night. As the main upper low
exits east, air aloft will cool so precipitation will transition to
mainly wet snowfall, with an inch or two accumulation across higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly dry weather Sunday as a weakening mid-level shortwave ridge
slides east of the region. Only potential exceptions will be in the
morning with a few snow showers lingering up in the North Country,
and a weak clipper shortwave in its wake racing across the eastern
Lakes to New England which may produce a few flurries across WNY.
Otherwise, a much broader ridge building across the Great Lakes
should keep the weather relatively quiet through Sunday night and
into Monday.

Looking at the synoptic scale pattern moving further into the long
term, a shortwave trough will eject northeast out of the desert
Southwest Monday, which will drag a deepening surface low across the
central Plains to the lower Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday.
Downstream, an upper closed low will be wobbling in the general
vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes. Expect increasing chances for
wet weather as the surface low lifts a warm front towards the region
late Monday, with a round of precip expected overnight through
Tuesday. Stuck close to NBM PoPs for this system and designated p-
type as a rain/snow mix based on sfc T's, though there are some
hints of a warm nose aloft that could certainly complicate things
depending on the track of the low.

As the shortwave races eastward to the New England coast, it will
become absorbed in the large trough stemming from the closed low. As
it does so, a colder pattern under a stubborn northwest flow looks
to set up across our region Tuesday night onward. Ripples of
shortwave energy around the backside of the main trough, spurred by
the envelopment of the shortwave energy, and combined with a
continuous feed of wrap around synoptic moisture may lead to a
stretch of conditions supportive of northwest flow lake effect.
Until things come into better focus however, will stick to sChc to
Chc pops through the period. Otherwise, expect temperatures to
average above normal Sunday through Monday night, before a cooling
trend to below normal readings behind Tuesday's system.

All the above being said, confidence in the details of the long
range forecast is rather low as both deterministic and ensemble
model guidance is all over the board regarding how the longwave
pattern evolves over time. Not worth dissecting any one specific
model solution at this range as this looks to be a dynamic pattern
and much is subject to change. In other words...Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Areas of stratus will continue overnight in post-frontal northwest
flow, with CIGS a mix of MVFR and lower end VFR. The areas of
stratus will linger through Friday morning before mainly pushing
west of the area as easterly flow increases.

Dry weather and VFR will prevail through early afternoon Friday. A
large area of widespread precipitation will then overspread Western
and Central NY from southwest to northeast during the late afternoon
and early evening, with conditions deteriorating to MVFR and IFR.
Temperatures will be quite mild ahead of the precipitation, but cool
quickly with mixed precipitation changing to mainly wet snow an hour
or two after onset along and north of the NY Thruway, with mixed
precipitation lingering in southern areas. Snow could be heavy
at times, with vsby a half mile or less in locations where it's
cold enough to support snow. Still uncertainty at KBUF/KIAG/KROC
on how long it will remain snow, but expect at least a few hours
of snow which could last longer depending on the track of the
low.

Precipitation will becoming light late Friday night across
Western NY, lingering east of Lake Ontario through daybreak.
Expect an extended period with vsby below 1SM at KART.
Elsewhere, vsby should improve but IFR cigs likely to linger
for most if not all of Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday...IFR/MVFR with snow or mixed precipitation
diminishing to leftover scattered rain and snow showers.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of snow showers east of the lakes.

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday...IFR/MVFR with rain of snow showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will continue to diminish on Lake Ontario tonight as
high pressure builds east across Quebec, with a ridge extending down
to the lake.

Generally weak winds are then expected through tomorrow morning with
this surface high nearby. Winds will increase tomorrow afternoon,
mainly from the east as an area of low pressure tracks toward the
region. Small Craft conditions are expected on both lakes, with
winds possible reaching gale conditions tomorrow night on the
western half of Lake Ontario.

Winds will veer to west and northwesterly Saturday behind a surface
low, and diminish Saturday night with the approach of a surface high
pressure.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
         Saturday for LEZ040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/JLA
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock/SW
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
403 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

NYZ001>005-010-011-031000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
403 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will be a period of moderate to heavy snow late Friday
afternoon and into Friday night. This may mix with sleet and rain at
times, but at least several inches of snow is expected, with a
potential for higher amounts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-031000-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
403 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Mixed precipitation is expected late Friday and Friday night.
Depending on the track of this system, there could be several inches
of snow, along with some light ice accumulations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-031000-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
403 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-031000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
403 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel