Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
645 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Mid-level vort max/shortwave over the Mexican state of Coahuila will
continue tracking east-southeastward overnight.  This feature along
with the LFQ of a 70-80 kt jet streak will interact with MLCAPEs of
around 3500-4000 J/kg across northeastern Mexico to produce
scattered to numerous thunderstorms this evening across initially
the higher terrain of Mexico.  Given a fairly broad area of 40-45 kt
of 0-6 km shear, expect these thunderstorm multicell clusters to
eventually grow and organize into an MCS as it nears the Rio Grande
Plains by 01-03Z this evening.  While large hail will initially be
possible across mainly Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties, the
overall main threat tonight across the CWA will be from damaging
winds from bowing segments within the eastward-moving squall
line/LEWP. The various CAM guidance over the past day or two has
been quite persistent with depicting a potential bowing MCS
affecting much of the CWA tonight.  SPC currently has only Zapata,
Jim Hogg, and Starr counties within a Slight Risk (earlier the
entire CWA was under a Slight Risk). Another thing that has been
consistent is a rapid weakening of this MCS by 06-09Z early Sunday
morning. This is likely due to increasing MLCIN values and more
stable conditions as the MCS tracks east of I-69C.

WPC has areas generally west of I-69C in a Maringal risk of
excessive rainfall through Sunday morning and across the remainder
of the CWA through Sunday night. This is line with prior thinking
and the 12Z HREF guidance which is depicting localized PMM QPF
values of 2-3 inches possible across the Rio Grande Plains/Brush
Country tonight and areas generally east of I-69C on Sunday
afternoon/evening.  More slow-moving storms are expected during the
day and overnight hours on Sunday.

Rain chances on Sunday may be quite limited through much of the day
given the passage of the morning MCS.  However, the airmass is not
expected to be totally worked over...at least across the eastern one-
half of the CWA.  This will tend to allow a somewhat active
seabreeze to act upon 2000-2500 MLCAPEs and marginal shear to
initiate diurnally-based convection late in the day on Sunday.
Lingering convection on Sunday evening is expected as weak upper
support will persist with a broad cyclonic flow anchored across East
TX.

P-ETSS guidance for Sunday depicts tides will remain just below
coastal flood advisory criteria.  This is in line with the 2-3 ft 8-
9 second period swells peaking right now and slowly decaying through
Sunday night.  The rip current risk will stay in the moderate range
although it will get close to a high risk near the time of low tide
this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

The quasi-omega blocking pattern over the CONUS with a somewhat
active southern stream over N Mexico and S Texas will keep our
area unsettled through at least Tuesday. The high pressure axis
that lies between a large trough over the Northeast and a trough
over California begins to shift east Wednesday ending up overhead
by Saturday increasing the subsidence over our region, resulting
in decreasing rain chances and increasing temperatures.

Latest model guidance trends remain persistent with GFS/ECMWF
showing much higher probability for showers/thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday over the NBM. Considering the deterministic models
persistence and WPC maintaining at least quarter inch of QPF, as well
as, keeping our County Warning Area (CWA) in a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall Monday and Tuesday will blend in some CONSALL
with the NBM which bumps up POPs into the 20-40% range. As the
mid-level ridge begins to shift east Wednesday expect more of a
sea breeze regime and as subsidence increases Thursday-Saturday
POPs trend back down to 10 percent or less.

Temperature trends look reasonable with slightly below average highs
and lows Monday and Tuesday or generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s
and upper 60s to lower 70s respectively.  Wednesday through next
weekend a warming trend commences and it will feel more likely June
in Deep South Texas with highs climbing well into the 90s nearing
100 degrees west of I 69C while lows will be steaming in the low to
mid 70s to near 80 as you travel close to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

While expecting mostly VFR conditions for most of the TAF period,
anticipating the arrival of a squall line that will makes its way
through Deep South Texas tonight proves to be difficult. Storms
appear to be trying to fire up sooner than expected by the models
so timing of the weather has been brought forward to match.
There is still some uncertainty on how fast the squall line will
push through the area. The showers and thunderstorms associated
with the squall line could result in low end MVFR to IFR
conditions at times. Thunderstorms that produce heavier rains
could also lead to LIFR conditions due to reduced visibilities as
well. Winds could also be enhanced in these storms as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Tonight through Sunday night...Swells initiated from TD Arlene
are peaking right now at 2-3 ft with 8-9 second periods. Swells
should continue to slowly decay through Sun night as Arlene
continues to weaken and as the overall gradient across the Gulf of
Mexico weakens.

Monday through Saturday...Marine conditions remain very mid-summer
like as a weak pressure fields persist over the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A Light to occasional moderate southeasterly wind regime and
a steady state slight to flat sea with a lowering swell period is
expected for much of next week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday become isolated Wednesday through
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             74  90  73  90 /  20  30  10  30
HARLINGEN               71  91  70  91 /  20  20  10  30
MCALLEN                 72  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  90  69  92 /  60  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  85  77  85 /  20  10  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  88  73  88 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...80-MB
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...64-Katz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
424 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-042130-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-
Cameron Island-
424 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

There is a Slight Risk of severe weather in the Rio Grande Plains
and a Marginal Risk of severe weather across the rest of Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with the main threats being
damaging wind gusts and large hail. There is also a Marginal Risk
of excessive rainfall for the Rio Grande Plains, western Brush
Country, and Upper Rio Grande Valley tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Minor coastal flooding is possible Sunday morning.

There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for the Rio Grande
Valley and Deep South Texas the next several days. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday
and could lead to nuisance flooding.

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach Sunday. An elevated risk of
rip currents is possible into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-042130-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
424 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
708 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

TXZ248-249-040100-
Jim Hogg TX-Zapata TX-
708 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Jim Hogg
and Zapata Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Falcon Mesa, or 7 miles southwest of Zapata, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zapata, Bustamante, Medina, Zapata High School, Zapata County Fire
Department, Randado, Escobas, Zapata Middle School, South Fork
Estates and Siesta Shores.

This includes US Highway 83 between mile markers 760 and 782.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2718 9854 2667 9920 2672 9921 2675 9924
      2679 9924 2682 9926 2685 9927 2686 9929
      2687 9932 2688 9933 2692 9933 2693 9937
      2694 9939 2727 9904 2727 9880 2734 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 227DEG 44KT 2685 9937

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

64/Katz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
720 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

TXZ252-040100-
Starr TX-
720 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Jim Hogg
and central Starr Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
North Escobares, or over Roma, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rio Grande City, Roma, Escobares, El Sauz, La Rosita, Los Alvarez,
Fort Ringgold County Park, Garceno, Starr County Sheriffs Office and
Roma City Hall.

This includes US Highway 83 between mile markers 800 and 824.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2647 9909 2648 9910 2679 9873 2678 9866
      2657 9846 2634 9879 2637 9880 2637 9882
      2636 9884 2637 9886 2635 9890 2637 9890
      2638 9892 2639 9893 2637 9895 2640 9896
      2639 9901 2641 9903 2640 9906 2646 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 234DEG 28KT 2645 9899

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

64/Katz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
732 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

TXZ248-040115-
Zapata TX-
732 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Zapata
County through 815 PM CDT...

At 732 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of San Ygnacio, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
San Ygnacio.

This includes US Highway 83 between mile markers 738 and 758.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2709 9943 2711 9944 2713 9943 2715 9944
      2718 9943 2727 9945 2732 9937 2727 9933
      2727 9904 2694 9939 2696 9939 2698 9938
      2702 9942 2701 9943 2702 9945 2706 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 316DEG 31KT 2694 9948

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

64/Katz

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