Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
548 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Warm afternoon weather and elevated dew points in the upper 60s
to lower 70s will help prime and destabilize the atmosphere for
the next round of thunderstorms tonight. A potent, synchronized
fast moving mid-level trough and quick moving surface cold front
is moving into Central Texas now and will move through Deep South
Texas by sunrise Saturday. The CWA is in a slight risk for severe
weather, with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail
associated with strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent
lightning.

Convection could initiate as early as 5-7 PM over Zapata/Starr
Counties, with these storms strengthening and tracking east through
the RGV anytime between 10 PM and 6 AM. The storms are likely to
consolidate into a Mesoscale Complex (MCS) moving across the CWA as
a squall line similar to last Sunday. Individual discrete cells
could produce large damaging hail while the squall line will be the
wind producer with damaging wind gusts possibly exceeding 70 mph in
some locations. Heavy rainfall could become an issue as the
thunderstorms track across the region.

One more issue with this system is the pressure gradient associated
with the cold front. Cyclogenesis takes place over Central-Northeast
Texas tonight will strengthen the pressure gradient along the Rio
Grande Plains overnight into Saturday morning. A wind advisory may
be needed Saturday morning for much of the CWA.

Mild and drier, breezy to windy weather will prevail Saturday with a
potential wind advisory persisting into afternoon across portions of
the RGV and along the coast. High temps will range from the 70s to
lower 80s and humidity will be noticeably lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Near to slightly above temperatures are forecast most of the period
with very limited rain chances. An H5 ridge will be in the process
of building over the Desert Southwest, providing the County
Warning Area (CWA) with lots of sunshine and pleasant conditions
to Sunday into Tuesday. The ridge axis propagates east Tuesday
and is forecast to nudge just east of the CWA by Wednesday night.
Southwesterly flow aloft commences shortly thereafter. A few
ripples in the mean flow will lead to slowly increasing rain
chances later next week. As of now, kept rain chances less than 10
to 15 percent both Wednesday and Thursday with better rain
chances Friday. Still time to sort things out for later next week.
In the meantime, enjoy some calmer weather conditions early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the aerodromes tonight,
and timing of the convection is based on the HRRR model. Much more
tranquil conditions will occur on Saturday in the wake of the cold
front and disturbance in the middle layers of the atmosphere which
will produce the convection tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Tonight through Saturday Night...The main story will be a gale
warning hoisted to start at 09Z for all waters in the wake of a cold
front. It may take a couple of hours after 09Z for winds to ramp up
to gale force. Hazardous conditions will continue through the short
term.

Sunday through next Friday...Marine conditions are forecast to be
much calmer Sunday thanks to high pressure overhead. As the high
scoots over the Gulf of Mexico, the pressure gradient will tighten
over the Lower Texas Coast Monday afternoon. This may lead to low
end Small Craft Advisory criteria. Beyond that, high pressure builds
over the western Gulf of Mexico with lighter onshore winds and more
favorable marine conditions expected by the middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

(Saturday)...Strong northwest winds gusting to 30-40+ mph and
relative humidity values crashing into the 25-40 percent range
behind an early Saturday morning cold front may heighten the fire
weather risk; however, a mitigating factor is recent widespread
rains and additional rain expected tonight. Fuels are wet, and
forecast fuel dryness will likely remain "above normal moisture" on
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             63  78  55  85 /  70  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               61  81  53  89 /  80   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 63  82  56  89 /  80   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         61  83  54  90 /  80   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      64  76  62  79 /  70  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     61  78  56  83 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

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