Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

The most significant weather during this portion of the whole
forecast is still expected to occur today, and forecast reasoning
remains the same. A weak cold front will ease towards the BRO CWFA
from the north while, simultaneously, a shortwave embedded within
the general west to east 500 mb flow passes through the region.
These features, combined with ample moisture, daytime heating, and
wind shear, will result in a threat for large hail and damaging
winds, a fact reflected in the Storm Prediction Center Day 1
Convective Outlook, which keeps the entire BRO CWFA in a Slight
Risk of severe weather. Thus, have indicated large hail and
damaging winds for today from around sunrise until around sunset
in the forthcoming official forecast. The HRRR model, which
handled the severe weather event in the region this past Friday
pretty well in terms of timing and location of convection,
suggests a bow echo event across Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley today, so would not be surprised if the convection
begins as isolated supercells, with hail and wind, along the cold
front, then rapidly transitions to a wind-threat-only bow echo
feature. Time will tell and we will see.

Additionally, the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook has a Marginal Risk of flooding rainfall for nearly all of
the BRO CWFA for today, with a Slight Risk of flooding rainfall
right along the border with the CRP CWFA. As a result, have also
placed a mention of heavy rainfall in the official forecast for
today for the entire region, including the Rio Grande Valley. Given
the fact that soils are thirsty for precipitation per the latest
Texas drought map, with much of the BRO CWFA in a moderate drought,
will forgo issuing a Flood Watch at this time. And, if a bow echo
feature does indeed develop, it will likely be too progressive to
pose a real flood thread.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Any lingering rain will be on its way out Monday night as high
pressure nudges in over the region. Southeasterly flow returns
Tuesday as temperatures climb to near normal Tuesday and back into
the 90s Wednesday. Another cold front is set to trudge through the
region sometime Thursday. Models differ on the evolution of the
front, so went with the NBM, which currently has the front through
here Thursday morning and a 20 to 30 percent chance for rain. Yet
another cold front is forecast to near the County Warning Area (CWA)
during the day Saturday. Models differ on rain chances this far out,
so kept only a 20 percent chance for rain next Saturday and we'll
see how things evolve during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms currently located over
the northern Ranchlands will continue to move south affecting
HRL, BRO and MFE within the next 1 to 2 hours. These storms will
be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, frequent cloud to
ground lightning and small hail. VFR conditions will give way to
MVFR conditions and as the line moves through we could see a
brief period of IFR to LIFR conditions. Airport Weather Warnings
will be issued as warranted. Once storms move past MVFR
conditions will prevail into the overnight and early morning hours
across all aerodromes with light to moderate northerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Today through Monday...Buoy 42020 reported east winds around 19
knots gusting to around 23 knots with seas slightly over 5.5 feet
with a period of 7 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. Adverse marine
conditions are anticipated along the Lower Texas Coast during the
period due to the intrusion of a weak cold front. Small Craft
Exercise Caution is likely to be needed due to winds and seas, and
a Small Craft Advisory cannot be entirely ruled out, especially
for the Gulf of Mexico waters. Additionally, a complex of strong
to severe thunderstorms is forecast to pass over the lower Texas
coastal waters today, and Special Marine Warnings may be needed to
account for damaging winds and hail. Mariners are urged to
closely monitor marine conditions, especially through the next 24
hours.

Monday Night through Saturday...Mostly favorable marine conditions
are anticipated most of the period. A cold front Thursday may bring
Small Craft Exercise Caution to low-end Small Craft Advisory
conditions Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Otherwise, light
to moderate onshore winds and seas are forecaSt throughout the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  65  76  68 /  80  40  30  10
HARLINGEN               83  63  79  67 /  80  40  30  10
MCALLEN                 82  63  77  67 /  70  40  40  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         83  61  74  65 /  70  30  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  68  75  71 /  80  40  30  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  65  77  69 /  80  40  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Monday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

AVIATION...68-McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
527 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-241000-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-
Cameron Island-
527 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley until at least 2 PM CDT.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms races southeast this
morning into the afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the
main concerns with a tornado or two not completely ruled out.

Heavy rainfall associated with thunderstorms may produce localized
flooding of low-lying and poor-drainage areas today.

There is a High Risk of Rip Currents at the local beaches through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional scattered thunderstorms next Wednesday night and
Thursday may be strong to potentially severe producing hail and
gusty winds along with heavy rainfall.

There is a High Risk of Rip Currents at the local beaches through
7 PM CDT Monday.

An elevated rip current risk is possible through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-241000-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
527 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of the Lower
Texas Coastal Waters until at least 2 PM CDT.

Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible
later this morning into the afternoon across all coastal waters.
These storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, poor
visibility in heavy rainfall, large hail, isolated water spouts
and lightning strikes.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters
from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore until 6 AM CDT Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional strong thunderstorms are possible next Thursday. These
storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, poor
visibility in heavy rainfall and lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1037 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

TXZ248-249-231615-
Jim Hogg TX-Zapata TX-
1037 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Jim
Hogg and northeastern Zapata Counties through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1037 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thompsonville, or 18 miles west of Hebbronville, moving southeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Escobas, South Fork Estates, Randado and Thompsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2720 9858 2698 9867 2696 9899 2727 9919
      2727 9880 2735 9880 2735 9876
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 313DEG 30KT 2726 9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

TXZ249-250-231700-
Brooks TX-Jim Hogg TX-
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Jim Hogg
and Brooks Counties through NOON CDT...

At 1109 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Riviera to 6 miles west of Falfurrias
Junior High School to near Las Lomitas. Movement was south-southeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Falfurrias, Encino, Rachal, La Colonia Park, Airport Road Addition,
Falfurrias Junior High School, Pleasant Park, El Coyote Ranch
Airport, Falfurrias Fire Station and Cantu Addition.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2727 9852 2726 9803 2688 9799 2682 9823
      2697 9857 2734 9853 2734 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 356DEG 20KT 2733 9782 2722 9826 2735 9863

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mejia