Gale Warning 7, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Big changes in store for this portion of the total forecast. Dry
weather with well above normal temperatures will occur today as
500 mb high pressure centered over Florida reigns but begins to
cede control. Tonight, a cold front will work from north to south
through the BRO CWFA, dropping low temperatures to well below
normal levels and generating mainly scattered convection. The well
below normal temperature trend will continue for Monday highs,
with coverage of convection increasing to scattered to numerous
activity.

Finally, a Wind Advisory may be needed for the island portions of
Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties beginning around sunrise
Monday. However, have opted to hold off on issuing this for now to
allow successive shifts to consider newer model guidance to sharpen
timing and wind strength.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Cloudy and breezy Monday night with isolated to scattered rain
showers. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to fall in the
mid to upper 40s, except around 50 near the coast. Cloudy and cool
conditions on Tuesday with highs in the 50s. Isolated to scattered
showers will continue on Tuesday before tapering off in the evening
as the coastal trough moves away and a second surge of high pressure
arrives. However, low end rain chances are expected to linger across
the Gulf waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures slowly
modify on Wednesday but are expected to remain well below normal
with morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s. Temperatures
continue to warm on Thursday into Friday as zonal flow develops
aloft and surface winds returning southeast as high pressure moves
east. Thursday will be mild with highs in the 70s and overnight lows
in the 50s and 60s. Warmer conditions return Friday into Saturday
with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

VFR conditions will continue into this evening. Tonight a cold
front will move through the area, likely bringing a line of
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms also possible along the
front. Behind the front, strong northerly winds, mostly cloudy
skies, and lingering showers will continue for the remainder of
the TAF period. Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR in the
early morning with the fronts passage, and remain there through
the remainder of the period. Some brief IFR conditions may be
possible as well, however confidence is too low to include in the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Today through Monday: Light to moderate winds and generally
moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast today in
advance of a cold front, which will sweep through tonight and
before sunrise Monday. Strong winds and rough seas will develop in
the wake of this front, and a Small Craft Advisory will be in
effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60
nautical miles offshore beginning at 4 AM CDT Monday.

Monday night through Saturday...Ongoing hazardous conditions with
sustained winds of around 30 knots with gusts near gale force. Wave
heights could be as high as 12 feet over the Gulf waters on Monday
night. Ongoing Small Craft Advisories will likely continue into
Wednesday. Conditions will continue to improve late Wednesday
through the rest of the period as high pressure moves eastward.
Scattered to numerous showers are expected Monday night and Tuesday
as moisture lingers off the coast. Rain chances will gradually
diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as drier air filters into the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  57  69  48 /  10  20  70  30
HARLINGEN               92  53  66  45 /   0  20  70  10
MCALLEN                 94  54  63  47 /   0  20  50  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  52  61  46 /   0  30  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  62  73  49 /  10  30  80  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  55  70  48 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...60-BE/56-Hallman