Wind Advisory 15, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

084 
WWUS71 KBOX 171851
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

MAZ022>024-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, and Nantucket
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ020-021-RIZ002-004>008-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Southeast Providence RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, 
Providence, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, 
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Washington, Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, 
  Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent, Bristol, and Newport 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, especially
  for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ007-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Eastern Essex MA-
Including the city of Gloucester
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Essex County.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ014>016-019-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, and Plymouth
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and 
  Eastern Plymouth Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ013-017-018-RIZ001-003-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Western Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Foxborough, Norwood, Taunton, Brockton, 
Foster, Smithfield, Coventry, and West Greenwich
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Western Norfolk, Northern Bristol 
  and Western Plymouth Counties. In Rhode Island, Northwest 
  Providence and Western Kent Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.231218T0600Z-231218T2100Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, and Willimantic
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ002-008-009-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.231218T0600Z-231218T2100Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western 
  Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ003-010-011-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.231218T0600Z-231218T2100Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Amherst, Northampton,
and Springfield
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern 
  Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ004>006-012-026-180900-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
151 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex, and Western 
  Essex Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

475 
WWUS71 KBOX 180749
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

MAZ022>024-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, and Nantucket
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ020-021-RIZ002-004>008-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Southeast Providence RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, 
Providence, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, 
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Washington, Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, 
  Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent, Bristol, and Newport 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ007-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Eastern Essex MA-
Including the city of Gloucester
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Essex County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ014>016-019-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, and Plymouth
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and 
  Eastern Plymouth Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MAZ013-017-018-RIZ001-003-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0004.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Western Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Foxborough, Norwood, Taunton, Brockton, 
Foster, Smithfield, Coventry, and West Greenwich
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Western Norfolk, Northern Bristol 
  and Western Plymouth Counties. In Rhode Island, Northwest 
  Providence and Western Kent Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-231218T2100Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, and Willimantic
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ002-008-009-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-231218T2100Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western 
  Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ003-010-011-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-231218T2100Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Amherst, Northampton,
and Springfield
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern 
  Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ004>006-012-026-182100-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.231218T1000Z-231219T0000Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
249 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex, and Western 
  Essex Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

973 
WWUS71 KBOX 182029
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
329 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

MAZ019-021>024-190000-
/O.CAN.KBOX.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-231219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0016.231218T2029Z-231219T0000Z/
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Mattapoisett, Chatham, 
Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, and Nantucket
329 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern and Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and 
  Nantucket Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ007-013>018-020-RIZ001>008-182130-
/O.CAN.KBOX.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-231219T0000Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood, 
Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Taunton, Brockton, Fall River, 
New Bedford, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, 
West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, 
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
329 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds will become southwest into this evening, with gusts
continuing to diminish less than 40 mph.

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ002-003-008>011-182130-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-231218T2100Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, 
Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, and Springfield
329 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will become southwest into this evening, with gusts
continuing to diminish less than 35 mph.

$$

MAZ004>006-012-026-182130-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-231219T0000Z/
Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
329 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will become southwest into this evening, with gusts
continuing to diminish less than 35 mph.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1248 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild conditions by late
December standards into the weekend. However, another strong
storm moves up from the south and will bring potentially very strong
winds and heavy rain Sunday night into Monday. Mainly dry and cool
weather is likely Tuesday through Saturday, but lots of clouds and
onshore flow is possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
950 PM Update:

With arrival of stratus clouds being delayed and winds in some
locations having already decoupled/gone calm, have another wide
range in current temps from the upper 20s to the mid 40s.
Warmest readings where there are winds over 5 mph. However we're
seeing an increasing covg of stratus start to develop over the
eastern coastal waters, and stratus will continue to expand
north and west after midnight tonight. Winds should also perk
back up into the overnight, and any areas where temps had
dropped to subfreezing levels should also rebound. Current
forecast seems to reflect this trend with no major adjustments
needed.

Previous discussion:

Overnight...
Overall, no significant changes with the evening update. Mainly
SKC conditions with a few lower clouds developing across
Nantucket. Increasing low/mid lvl moisture in advance of the
developing low pres well to the S will lead to increased clouds
late tonight. With onshore flow already in place, did make
slight adjustments to the temps/dwpts overnight. Otherwise,
forecast is on track.

Sunday:

WAA pattern overspreads SNE ahead of approaching trough. Mainly
dry weather in the morning, then light rain overspreads the
region from west to east. Moderate to heavy rain appears to hold
off until Sunday evening and especially overnight. Remaining
mild with highs in the 50s. East to southeast winds 10-15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Highlights

* A Strong storm system affects the region overnight Sunday into
  Monday

    * High winds gusting 40-60mph

    * Heavy Rainfall of 2"-3" with localized areas of 4+"

    * Minor to moderate river flooding due to heavy rainfall

    * Minor to moderate coastal flooding for Narragansett Bay

Synoptic Overview.

A strong storm system will impact southern New England starting
Sunday night through Monday. A subtropical low begins traveling up
the Atlantic coast tomorrow and merging with a short wave trough
exiting the Northern Great Plains. This should drag the surface low
further west into eastern New York also allowing for the low to
intensify as it progresses north. Temps will be quite above normal
hovering around 60F during the Sunday night and Monday time period
as the region enters the warm sector of the low. Rain begins late
Sunday afternoon to evening starting off light and becoming moderate
overnight. The heaviest rain looks to fall Early monday morning
before the dry slot works in by late Monday morning to early
afternoon.

Strong and damaging winds...

A strong low level jet with 925mb winds of 75-85 knots enters the
region early Monday morning through Monday evening. The big question
with this system is how well are winds able to mix down to the
surface while winds are out the southeast. With some tropical
origins to the surface low pressure, this should allow for warmer
temps to advect into the region allowing lapse rates to steepen
esspically over land. The first round of high winds should arrive
early Monday morning before sunrise and spread from south to north.
Winds through Monday morning remain SE gusting 45-55mph esspically
near the coasts. Another burst of high winds is possible late Monday
morning to Monday afternoon as the surface low traverses northeast
allowing the winds to turn southwest. With southwest winds, mixing
potential will increase and combined with a strong pressure rise
couplet behind the low, this could allow for increased gusts of 50-
60mph. Due to the second burst of winds, confidence increased enough
to expand the high wind watch north and west into SE MA and all of
RI. Confidence is high that a wind advisory will be needed for much
of the region outside the high wind watch as ensembles show greater
then 50% chance for 46mph gusts, however being just outside of the
hi-res guidance window, wanted to hold off on issuing any advisories
with this package.

Heavy Rain and River Flooding...

A flood watch was hoisted for Western MA, CT and northern RI with
this update as confidence in heavy rains has increased. PWATS are
approaching 1.4 to 1.5 inches which is near record levels for
southern New England in December. The strong southeast LLJ will also
enhance orographic lift esspically over the east slopes of the
Berks. Ensembles show near 50% probs for 3"+ along the east slopes
of the Berks and CT river valley with 10% probs of 4"+ of rain.
deterministic guidance also shows 2"-3" with localized areas of 4"+
of rain. Still being outside the window for HREF guidance,
Confidence in exact location of heaviest rainfall may change over
the next 48 hours. The main threat for flooding is river and stream
flooding with some poor drainage/flash flooding possible. 6hr FFG
indicates 2.5-3.0 inches of rain would be needed over 6 hours to
achieve flash flooding which doesnt look likely at this time.
However, poor drainage flooding is possible with the heaviest rain
Monday morning. River and stream flooding looks to be the greatest
flooding threat with MMEFS indicating 30% probability for minor to
moderate flooding along the CT river valley and surrounding streams.
USGS also indicates that many streams and rivers across MA and CT
are running near or above normal flows for this time of year due to
last weeks rains.

Coastal Flooding...

Confidence continues to increase for minor to moderate flooding in
Narragansett bay with the high tide Monday around noon. Peak
forecast surge values have increased to 3ft-4ft due to models
bringing the peak winds in near the Monday high tide. This prompted
a coastal flood watch to be issued for Narragansett bay. The watch
may need to be expanded into the remaining southern coastal zones
with future updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday through Saturday

Cool Tuesday with upper trough and below normal heights over the
region. Cold cyclonic aloft may yield a few rain/snow showers.
Otherwise, mainly dry weather prevails.  Then mid week, upper trough
may become detached from the northern stream and pinch off as a
closed low southeast of New England, possibly spinning up new low
pressure on the offshore front over Georges Bank. This should be far
enough offshore for mainly dry weather to prevail across SNE, but
cool NE flow may yield lots of clouds from time to time. Leaning
toward the slower and cooler guidance this forecast period. Reason
being, ensembles have a near record high amplitude ridge in the
central Atlantic next week, with 594 dam heights! Hence, downstream
blocking yielding a slower clearing trend and delaying mild weather
upstream across Canada from advecting southeast into SNE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Thru 12z: High confidence.

Southeast winds continue to allow low clouds to overspread
southern New England. MVFR prevails through 12Z with modest
east/southeast winds.

Sunday: High confidence in trends.

MVFR ceilings for most of the day. Should see some
deterioration to IFR for the terminals west of I-495 after 21Z
as rain begins to overspread the region ahead of a strong low-
pressure system. Modest east/southeast winds become more steady
around 10 knots by 00Z.

Sunday Night: High Confidence

IFR/MVFR ceilings ranging from 700 to 1500 feet across southern
New England. 40 knots LLWS develop after 00Z. Widespread rain
overnight becoming moderate to heavy after 06Z. Heavy rainfall
will reduce vsbys to 1 to 3 miles. 10 knot east/southeast winds
at 00Z will gradually increase to 20 to 30 knots across the
interior and 30 to 35 knots along the coast by 12Z. Wind gusts
increase substantially between 06 and 12Z with gusts up to 40
knots possible across the interior and 50 knots along the
coastal areas. LLWS values approach 50 knots by 12Z.

Monday: High Confidence

IFR ceilings and vsbys as a strong low-pressure system
continues to produce heavy rainfall and strong southeast winds
across southern New England. The period from 12 to 18Z Monday
will experience the strongest winds with sustained southeast
winds ranging from 30 to 40 knots along the coast with gusts
from 50 to 60 knots possible. Interior terminals more likely to
experience 20 to 30 knot sustained winds with 40 to 50 knot peak
wind gusts. Winds will gradually diminish to 10 to 20 knots by
00Z Tuesday. Very strong LLWS along the east and south coasts
with 60 to 70 knots of shear possible from 0-2 km.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

MVFR for Sunday. Ceilings falling to IFR after 00Z tonight.
Southeast wind gusts begin to exceed 30 knots between 06 and 12Z
Monday. Peak wind gusts from 40 to 50 knots expected between 12Z
and 18Z Monday. Winds gradually diminish between 18 and 00Z
Monday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

MVFR for Sunday. Ceilings falling to IFR after 00Z tonight.
Southeast wind gusts exceeding 30 knots between 12 and 18Z
tomorrow. Winds gradually diminish early tomorrow afternoon
into tomorrow evening.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong
winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance RA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

215 PM update...

Overall high confidence.

Tranquil weather tonight with high pressure over southeast
Quebec drifting eastward, providing fairly light ENE winds, dry
weather along with good vsby. High pressure near Nova Scotia
Sunday morning, drifts offshore, promoting ESE winds 10-15 kt
across the MA and RI waters. Dry in the morning with rain
overspreading the waters in the afternoon.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 23 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance
of rain.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of
rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt.
Rough seas up to 11 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Confidence continues to increase for minor to moderate flooding in
Narragansett bay with the high tide Monday around noon. Peak
forecast surge values have increased to 3ft-4ft due to models
bringing the peak winds in near the Monday high tide. This prompted
a coastal flood watch to be issued for Narragansett bay. The watch
may need to be expanded into the remaining southern coastal zones
with future updates.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
     MAZ002>004-008>012.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
     MAZ007-013-015>024.
RI...Flood Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
     RIZ001.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
     RIZ001>008.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/KP
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Nocera/Guest
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...Nocera/KP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Nocera/KP