Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
356 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
System exits to our east Thursday morning which will bring an
end to the heavy rains. Tranquil weather Friday and Saturday
with temperatures slightly above late January normals. A more
active pattern then develops early to mid next week with the
potential for a series of frontal system to affect Southern New
England. Specifics still aren't clear, but the weather pattern
favors mixed wintry precipitation or rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Highlights...

* Moderate to heavy rain comes to an end this morning.

* Clouds remain this afternoon, but trending drier outside of a few
  terrain enhanced snow showers in far northwest Massachusetts.

* Southeast wind becomes west, still fairly breezy with gusts to
  35mph.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain this morning will continue to soak
southern New England. As of 08z radar estimates 3/4" to 1 1/2" of
rain has fallen across the region... an additional 1/2" to 1" is
possible through mid morning as the system exits the region. Besides
it being a soggy morning, it is quite warm! WPC surface analysis
shows a warm front draped from Kingston, NY - Hartford - Worcester -
and Lowell. South of that boundary temperatures are in the 50s while
north temperatures are in the 30s. Here is a good example, from 08z,
of the drastic temperature differences. KHFD is 39F and KIJD is 55F.

But where temperatures are hovering above freezing, Massachusetts
border with Vermont and southwest New Hampshire, there could be some
slick spots on untreated surfaces. As for the larger cities of BOS,
PVD, ORH, HFD, do not expect any issues besides wet roads and
puddles from the heavier rains.

Precip ends from west to east, eventually clearing the east coast of
Massachusetts after 12z with the passage of a cold front. Briefly
there may be a period of clear skies, but a wind shift to the
northwest, cyclonic flow aloft, and steepening low level lapse rates
will result in clouds filtering back in. A few snow flurries are
possible this afternoon with CAA, best chance of these snow showers
are in the southern Green Mountains of Vermont and points south into
the northern Berkshires.

Todays high temperatures are occurring between 4am and 7am, CAA takes
place behind the cold front that will move across southern New
England this morning. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout
the afternoon into the 30s. Given the steep lapse rates there mixing
will allow for breezy westerly winds 15-25mph and gusts to 35mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

Tonight: Fairly quiet and dry. A weak shortwave pivots through that
brings isolated snow showers to extreme northwest Massachusetts.
Moisture is limited, as PWATs drop to less than 1/4". CAA continues
overnight, becoming seasonably cold, lows drop into the upper teens
across the interior to the upper-20s at the coast.

Friday: Overall a quieter weather day with surface high pressure
moving up from the south. Aloft, a shortwave pushes through, can
rule out a couple snow showers across western Massachusetts, nothing
of concern given low PWATs. Steep lapse rates once again on Friday
will provide a steady west wind between 10-15mph. Given the colder
temperatures aloft and mixing, temperatures are pretty seasonable
for late January. Afternoon highs reach the mid to upper-30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Extended portion of the forecast was completed using the 01z NBM and
12/18z global models and their ensembles. Overall forecast wasn't
significantly changed from that issued previously. Forecast follows
below:

Highlights:

* Mix of sun and clouds, but dry and tranquil weather Fri and Sat.
  Temps slightly above seasonable.

* Unsettled weather pattern late weekend into midweek with series of
  frontal systems to affect the area. Specifics are uncertain at
  this time but pattern favors mixed wintry precip types and/or rain.

Details:

Friday Night and Saturday:

Increasing clouds ahead of a Clipper type low for Fri night and
continuing into Sat; however the Clipper itself is pretty
starved for moisture and also translates to our north and west.
As such, its only influence will be increasing SW breezes (gusts
25-30 mph) during the day on Sat, then decreasing by the
evening. Lows Fri night in the upper teens north to mid/upper
20s (around freezing near Cape Cod/Islands). For Sat under some
cloud cover, highs mainly in the lower to middle 40s with lows
mainly in the 20s to near freezing.

Sunday through Tuesday:

Today's 12z ensembles and deterministic models all generally agree
on the mid-level pattern in this period. This pattern features
slight amplification to a mid-level ridge near the Gulf of Mexico or
Gulf Coast states. An initially active northern stream of the jet
(driven by shortwave energy rotating southward from amplifying ridge
into Alaska/-EPO type pattern) then become split as some of this
energy digs into the SW CONUS toward early next week. This creates
an enhanced WSW mid-level flow/preferred storm track, with
indications for one or multiple disturbances moving ENE in the WSW
flow aloft into early to mid next week. Hate to use the term
"temperature battle ground", but that's pretty much what it is with
frigid air on the northern fridge of the storm track and mild
temperatures to the south and east of height gradient/storm track.
Overall, lower than usual confidence in this portion of the long-
term forecast.

It's a pattern that tends to favor mixed p-types to rain scenarios,
but given the colder air to the north, we do have to watch for
periodic intrusions of this colder air southward that could force
more wintry types than rain. Besides the surface temps, the strength
of each system, their timing in a fast WSW flow aloft and the
thermal structure aloft are all pretty low-confidence at this point.
At this point it looks like a progressive/weaker frontal system
Sunday night into Mon with another system around Tue or Wed that
could be more significant. But as mentioned, details/specifics are
highly uncertain and ensemble trends will need to be monitored.

Have indicated temps still on the above-average side but these too
will also need to be more carefully monitored/adjusted.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

09z TAF Update:

Through 12z: High confidence in trends but moderate on the
exact timing.

IFR/LIFR conditions. Locally heavy rain likely for BOS, PVD and
SE MA, Cape Cod and Islands after 06z. SE winds increase
markedly for PVD, BOS SE to Cape Cod/ACK with gusts 30-45kt. N/W
of I-95, E/SE winds around 10-13 kt gusts to 25 kt. LLWS for RI
and eastern MA 06z-09z.

Today...Moderate confidence.

IFR/MVFR cigs with light rain, improving to VFR between 16z and 20z.
West winds 15 to 20 kts and gust to 30 kts.

Tonight...high confidence.

VFR, dry weather but strong west winds 15-25 kt, gusting up to
35 kt during the evening, slowly diminishing overnight.

Tomorrow...high confidence.

VFR. West wind 10-15 kts, gusts to 25 kts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence. Moderate to heavy rain through
09z along with IFR conditions. Rain ends between 12z-15z with
improving CIGS to MVFR after 15z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Rain falling moderate to heavy
at times between 06z and 09z. IFR CIGs improving to MVFR after
12z.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA, slight chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA,
slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday...High confidence.

* Gale Warnings remain posted

Today...

Gale center near Boston at 12z races northeast into the maritimes.
South gales shifting to WSW gales in the afternoon. Morning rain
moves offshore with improving vsbys.

Tonight...

Gale center moves into southeast Quebec with weak high pressure
approaching New England from the west. Thus, diminishing winds. Dry
weather and good vsby.

Friday...

West winds continue to diminish along with seas. Possible a SCA
might be needed for the outer waters as seas may run 4-8 ft.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Flood Watch until noon EST today for MAZ013>021.
     Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ019>024.
RI...Flood Watch until noon EST today for RIZ001>007.
     Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Gaucher
NEAR TERM...Gaucher
SHORT TERM...Gaucher
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Gaucher
MARINE...Loconto/Gaucher

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
408 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

MAZ019>021-RIZ002-004>007-270915-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Southeast Providence RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-
408 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts,
northern Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-270915-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
408 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts
and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ013>018-RIZ001-003-270915-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
408 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-026-270915-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
408 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts
and western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-270915-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
408 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-270915-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
408 AM EST Thu Jan 26 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

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