Alert archive / Massachusetts / River Flood Warnings in 2023

River Flood Warning 39, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

December 11, 2023Middlesex County, Massachusetts

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this river flood warning at Dec 11, 2023, 6:34 AM EST for Middlesex County, Massachusetts. It took effect at Dec 11, 2023, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 20 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 11, 2023, 6:34 AM EST (11:34 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 11, 2023, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 1, 2024, 6:34 AM EST
In force
20 days
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Middlesex County, MA

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Sudbury River at Saxonville (SAXM3). The gauge peaked at 11.59 ft at Dec 19, 2023, 6:00 AM EST.

actionminormoderatemajor68101212/1112/1212/1312/1412/1512/1612/1712/1812/1912/2012/2112/2212/2312/2412/2512/2612/2712/2812/2912/3012/3101/0101/02
Action stage
8.5 ft
Minor stage
10 ft
Moderate stage
12 ft
Major stage
13 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01098530, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

972 
WGUS41 KBOX 111134
FLWBOX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
634 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton MA has issued a 
Flood Warning for the following rivers in Massachusetts...

  Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County.



For the Sudbury River...including Saxonville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 645 PM EST.

&&

MAC017-112345-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FL.W.0039.231212T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.231212T0000Z.231212T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
634 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sudbury River at Saxonville.

* WHEN...From this evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river in Wayland, including a portion of Shore Road and Pelham 
  Island Road near Heards Pond.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM EST Monday the stage was 9.5 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening and continue rising to a crest of 10.3 feet
    early tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.3 feet on 10/26/2005.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129


$$

FN
3 follow-up statements
778 
WGUS81 KBOX 111758
FLSBOX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1258 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Rhode 
Island...Massachusetts...

  Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties.

  Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County.

  Blackstone River At Woonsocket affecting Worcester and Providence 
  Counties.

  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County.



For the Sudbury River...including Saxonville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Blackstone River...including Woonsocket...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Pawtuxet River...including Cranston...Moderate flooding is 
forecast.
For the Wood River...including Hope Valley...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars through 
flooded areas.

Stay away from riverbanks which can be dangerous during times of 
flooding.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at midnight EST.

&&

RIC003-007-120500-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-231214T0900Z/
/CRAR1.2.ER.231211T1621Z.231212T1200Z.231214T0300Z.NO/
1258 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Pawtuxet River at Cranston.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, Evacuations are likely near the Pawtuxet 
  River in Warwick and Cranston. Both homes and businesses will be 
  impacted from this flood event. Businesses and homes will be 
  impacted on streets including but not limited to the following, in 
  Warwick, Pioneer Avenue, Bellows Street, Venturi Avenue, and River 
  Street. In Cranston, Wellington Avenue and Avery Road. In West 
  Warwick, Daisy Street, the lower ends of Canna, Begonia and Aster 
  Streets, and portions of Providence Street to Route 2.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:45 AM EST Monday the stage was 9.1 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:45 AM EST Monday was 9.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.0
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    late Wednesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.9 feet on 03/25/2010.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7139 4172 7137 4170 7155


$$

RIC009-120500-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0040.231211T1912Z-231212T1200Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.231211T1912Z.231212T0000Z.231212T0600Z.NO/
1258 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Wood River at Hope Valley.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 5.0 feet, In Richmond, floodwaters begin to pond onto 
  Wood River Drive. In Hopkinton off of Main Street, the Wood River 
  begins to flood Dow Park.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 PM EST Monday the stage was 4.5 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 5.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 5.4 feet this evening. It will
    then fall below flood stage just after midnight tonight.
  - Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    5.4 feet on 03/20/1983.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$

MAC027-RIC007-120500-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0041.231211T2327Z-231213T0000Z/
/WOOR1.1.ER.231211T2327Z.231212T0600Z.231212T1800Z.NO/
1258 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO TOMORROW 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Blackstone River at Woonsocket.

* WHEN...From this evening to tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Flooding may begin to affect the lower 
  parking area to the Highland Falls Apartments. Lower lying 
  residential areas along the Rhode Island and Massachusetts line, 
  including the lower level of the 148 Bernon St Condominiums in 
  Woonsocket, may begin to experience flooding. Businesses along the 
  river should take the necessary actions to protect property.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 7.8 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening to a crest of 9.5 feet just after midnight
    tonight. It will then fall below flood stage early tomorrow
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    9.5 feet on 01/28/1996.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7157 4202 7149 4197 7142 4186 7136
      4185 7141


$$

MAC017-120500-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0039.231212T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.231211T1730Z.231212T0000Z.231214T0600Z.NO/
1258 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sudbury River at Saxonville.

* WHEN...From this evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river in Wayland, including a portion of Shore Road and Pelham 
  Island Road near Heards Pond.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 PM EST Monday the stage was 10.0 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 0.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.3
    feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early
    Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.3 feet on 10/26/2005.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129


$$

JWD
665 
WGUS81 KBOX 120200
FLSBOX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
900 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Massachusetts...Rhode Island...

  Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County.

  Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Rhode 
Island...

  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Rhode 
Island...Massachusetts...

  Blackstone River At Woonsocket affecting Worcester and Providence 
  Counties.



For the Sudbury River...including Saxonville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Pawtuxet River...including Scituate Reservoir, Cranston...
Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Wood River...including Hope Valley...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 1000 PM EST.

&&

MAC027-RIC007-120300-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-231212T0200Z/
/WOOR1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
900 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Blackstone River At Woonsocket.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 8.5 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 8.9
    feet just after midnight tonight.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7157 4202 7149 4197 7142 4186 7136
      4185 7141


$$

RIC009-121530-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-231212T1525Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.231211T2000Z.231212T0115Z.231212T0925Z.NO/
900 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Wood River at Hope Valley.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, In Richmond, the Wood River renders 
  portions of Wood River Drive and Wood River Circle impassable. In 
  Hopkinton, the Wood River floods sections of Dow Park off of Main 
  Street.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM EST Monday the stage was 5.7 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 5.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:15 PM EST Monday was 5.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tonight and continue falling to 3.1 feet Thursday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    5.7 feet on 05/18/1948.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$

MAC017-121600-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-231214T1200Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.231211T1730Z.231212T0600Z.231214T0600Z.NO/
900 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sudbury River at Saxonville.

* WHEN...Until Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river in Wayland, including a portion of Shore Road and Pelham 
  Island Road near Heards Pond.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM EST Monday the stage was 9.8 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 0.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this evening to a crest of 10.3 feet just after midnight
    tonight. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.3 feet on 10/26/2005.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129


$$

RIC003-007-121600-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-231213T1300Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.231211T1621Z.231212T0600Z.231213T0700Z.NO/
900 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pawtuxet River at Cranston.

* WHEN...Until Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flooding will occur along Pioneer Avenue, 
  Bellows Street and Venturi Avenue in Warwick. Some homes are 
  impacted on Avery Road and Wellington Avenue in Cranston.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM EST Monday the stage was 9.9 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:45 PM EST Monday was 9.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.4
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage early Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.4 feet on 03/30/2005.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7139 4172 7137 4170 7155


$$

AL
622 
WGUS81 KBOX 120750
FLSBOX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
250 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Rhode 
Island...

  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Rhode 
Island...

  Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Providence and Kent Counties.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Massachusetts...

  Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County.



For the Pawtuxet River...including Scituate Reservoir, Cranston...
Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Wood River...including Hope Valley...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued early this morning at 400 AM EST.

&&

MAC017-120900-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-231212T0750Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.231211T1730Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
250 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Sudbury River At Saxonville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 9.7 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 0.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.7
    feet this morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129


$$

RIC009-122000-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-231213T0000Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.231211T2000Z.231212T0600Z.231212T1800Z.NO/
250 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Wood River at Hope Valley.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, In Richmond, the Wood River renders 
  portions of Wood River Drive and Wood River Circle impassable. In 
  Hopkinton, the Wood River floods sections of Dow Park off of Main 
  Street.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 5.9 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 5.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 2:15 AM EST Tuesday was 6.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this afternoon and continue falling to 3.2 feet early Friday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.0 feet on 12/31/1942.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$

RIC003-007-122000-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-231213T1300Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.231211T1621Z.231212T1200Z.231213T0700Z.NO/
250 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2023

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pawtuxet River at Cranston.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flooding will occur along Pioneer Avenue, 
  Bellows Street and Venturi Avenue in Warwick. Some homes are 
  impacted on Avery Road and Wellington Avenue in Cranston.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 10.2 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 1:45 AM EST Tuesday was 10.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.2
    feet this morning. It will then fall below flood stage just
    after midnight tonight.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.2 feet on 11/27/2018.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7139 4172 7137 4170 7155


$$

RM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 11, 5:17 AM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 11, 5:17 AM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
517 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Multifaceted storm with heavy rain and potentially damaging
wind gusts will impact southern New England this morning. Behind
this departing system, the week ahead looks dry. Expecting a
cool-down mid week, before warming up once again towards next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
After further analysis this morning, made significant changes
to wind headlines across both land and water. Began the process
of downgrading wind headlines, both in terms of magnitude and
duration. With the front almost completely offshore early this
morning, the core of the strong low level jet has also been
shunted east. Thinking most of the Wind Advisories can be
dropped at 7 AM. Kept the High Wind Warning for the Cape and
islands into early afternoon.

Also tweaked temperatures and winds based on latest observed
trends.

249 AM Update...

Latest guidance suite and observations indicated a quicker
timing for the eastward progression of a cold front across
southern New England. Latest observations already had this front
past Nashua NH, Worcester MA and Willimantic CT. Based on
current timing, that would place this front along the east coast
of MA towards 7 AM, then finally offshore towards mid morning.
This is about 5 hours faster than the previous forecast.

This is important to several aspects of the forecast, mainly
due to the wind shift and reducing the duration of heavy
rainfall. This may also limit the magnitude of wind speeds,
which were just starting to gust up around 45 mph in spots as of
this writing. While still expecting at least some snowfall
across the east slopes of the Berkshires, the quicker timing
should limit amounts. Thinking snowfall amounts will remain
below 3 inches. Hence no need for a Winter Weather Advisory
there.

The latest NationalBlend appeared to have a rather good handle
on this timing. Thus used it for the basis for the forecast this
morning. Expecting nearly steady to falling temperatures through
the day, meaning early high temperatures. Will address the
hydrology and coastal flooding concerns in their own section
below.

Wind continue wind headlines as they currently are. Will
reevaluate and possibly make changes with the 4 AM forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure then builds east towards the Mid Atlantic coast
tonight into Tuesday. Expecting dry weather and mainly clear
skies with a diminishing west wind. Near normal temperatures
during this portion of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
 - Mainly dry weather expected
 - Near to below normal temperatures give way to another warmup
   by next weekend

Upper level pattern should feature a broad trough over much of
eastern US through midweek, but with a lack of downstream
blocking, the synoptic pattern remains progressive and this
trough will exit to Maritimes. This will allow for a pattern
change late this week as an upper ridge takes hold and brings
yet another warmup into next weekend. This pattern also favors
dry weather overall with a large high pressure nearby to our
south and west.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Significant changes to the timing of a cold front, which has
already crossed most of southern New England early this morning.
expecting this front to be offshore by 15Z, even across the
Cape and islands. However, there are some complications which
may alter this timing. A low pressure may develop more quickly,
which would then slow the passage of this front.

MVFR to IFR east of this front, with rapid improvement to VFR
to the west, thinking by 15-18Z. Areas of MVFR ceilings
lingering near the higher elevations.

Strong low level jet of 80 kt passing across SE MA this morning
will result in significant LLWS. Winds gradually diminish
through today, but remain gusty through sunset. Gusty SW winds
for Tuesday, but not as strong as today.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence
in timing.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

based on the latest observed trends, confined the Storm Warning
to the outer coastal waters, as well as Nantucket Sound. Gale
Warnings elsewhere, but only through 7 AM for Boston Harbor and
Mass Bay, as well as Narragansett Bay and Block Island Sound.
Remaining Gale Warnings continue into mid morning. Further
headline changes expected with later forecasts today as winds
continue to diminish slowly.

249 AM Update...

A cold front was quickly approaching the waters this morning.
Winds were just starting to ramp up across the waters. Starting
to think we may not quite get to storm-force winds, but the
threat remains. Winds were southerly at 88 kt at 2,000-2,500 ft
above ground, and it would not take much more mixing to bring
some of this down to the surface. Will maintain the Storm
Warnings for now, and continue to monitor. May be able to
downgrade to Gale Warnings later this morning.

Moderate to heavy rainfall will reduce visibility at times this
morning. An abrupt and significant shift in winds is expected
as this cold front crosses the waters. Seas gradually diminish
through the day, but seas will still be rough on the waters into
Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Already seeing rises on some of the faster responding streams,
creeks and smaller rivers. The faster progression of a cold
front will limit rainfall. Thinking additional rainfall of
0.50-1.50 inches going forward. Areal flood warnings already
posted, and we will be monitoring the rivers closely through
this morning. Travelers should remain alert for flooded areas
this morning. Turn around, don't drown.

The Flood Watch continues for now, but may be cancelled earlier
than its current end time with later forecasts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Coastal Flood Advisory canceled.

The faster progression of a cold front forced wind directions to
shift to the W to NW prior to the time of high tide by about 2-3
hours. This timing offset was enough to prevent further coastal
flooding along the south coast of MA and Narragansett Bay.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through this evening for MAZ002>021-026.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ017>021.
     High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ022>024.
RI...Flood Watch through this evening for RIZ001>007.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for RIZ005.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230-236-237-
     251.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ231-233>235.
     Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ232-250-
     254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk
MARINE...Belk
HYDROLOGY...Belk
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Belk/KJC

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 11, 3:55 AM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
355 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

CTZ002-111015-
Hartford CT-
355 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

...Runoff will lead to minor flooding along the North Branch of the
Park River in Hartford through 515 AM EST...

At 355 AM EST, River gauge at North Branch of the Park River reports
river level of 7.15 feet and continues to rise. Minor flood stage is
8.0 feet. The river level may continue to rise during the next 1 to
2 hours, creating minor flooding.

HAZARD...Minor flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...In addition to minor nuisance flooding of typically flood
         prone areas. At 8.0 feet lowland flooding will occur along
         the North Branch of the Park River. Portions of the
         University of Hartford campus parking lots along the river
         will become flooded. Action must be taken now to protect
         cars in these lots. Never try to cross a flooded roadway as
         the roadway may be damaged or washed out.

Locations impacted include...
Hartford, New Britain, West Hartford, East Hartford, Glastonbury,
Newington, Windsor, Wethersfield, South Windsor, Farmington,
Simsbury, Bloomfield, Avon, Suffield, Windsor Locks, Granby, and East
Granby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roads or underpasses. Avoid low lying
areas near small streams.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 7262 4171 7282 4198 7283 4199 7263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0847Z 258DEG 98KT 4174 7218

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Dooley
Local storm report, Dec 11, 6:15 AM EST, 19 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
615 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 NNE Easton            42.07N 71.09W
12/11/2023                   Bristol            MA   Law Enforcement

            Tree and wires down on Kingsley Rd also on
            Kennedy Circle. Relayed by Amateur Radio.

0306 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 NNW Buzzards Bay      41.80N 70.63W
12/11/2023  M41 MPH          Plymouth           MA   Trained Spotter

            Reported by Trained Spotter.

0308 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Sharon                  42.12N 71.18W
12/11/2023                   Norfolk            MA   Law Enforcement

            Tree and powerlines down on Billings St.
            Relayed by Amateur Radio.

0317 AM     Rain             3 NE Milford            42.17N 71.48W
12/11/2023  M2.86 inch       Middlesex          MA   Trained Spotter

0342 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SE Cambridge          42.37N 71.11W
12/11/2023                   Middlesex          MA   Law Enforcement

            Tree and wires down on Clifton St. Relayed
            by Amateur Radio.

0351 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Holbrook                42.15N 71.01W
12/11/2023                   Norfolk            MA   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on car. Relayed by Amateur Radio.

0415 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Marion                  41.70N 70.76W
12/11/2023                   Plymouth           MA   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on car near Briggs Ln and Mill St.
            Relayed by Amateur Radio.

0437 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Providence              41.82N 71.41W
12/11/2023                   Providence         RI   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Tree on a house on Tennyson Lane. Relayed by
            Amateur Radio.

0441 AM     Rain             3 WSW Smithfield        41.87N 71.60W
12/11/2023  M3.25 inch       Providence         RI   Trained Spotter

0451 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 S Bristol             41.67N 71.28W
12/11/2023                   Bristol            RI   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on 2 cars on Collins St. Relayed
            by Amateur Radio.

0500 AM     Rain             3 SE Wauregan           41.71N 71.88W
12/11/2023  M5.00 inch       Windham            CT   Public

            Reported by Trained Spotter.

0504 AM     Rain             1 E Framingham          42.30N 71.41W
12/11/2023  M3.35 inch       Middlesex          MA   Public

0519 AM     Rain             2 SW Hopkinton          42.20N 71.56W
12/11/2023  M3.12 inch       Middlesex          MA   Trained Spotter

0542 AM     Rain             Whitman                 42.08N 70.94W
12/11/2023  M1.53 inch       Plymouth           MA   Trained Spotter

            Also peak gust 43mph. Reported by Trained
            Spotter.

0544 AM     Rain             3 W Warren              42.21N 72.25W
12/11/2023  M2.90 inch       Worcester          MA   Emergency Mngr

0551 AM     Rain             1 ESE Randolph          42.17N 71.04W
12/11/2023  M1.79 inch       Norfolk            MA   Trained Spotter

0552 AM     Rain             1 SSE North Providence  41.84N 71.45W
12/11/2023  M2.70 inch       Providence         RI   Public

            also 43 mph gust at 4AM.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 11, 12:32 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBOXHampden, Middlesex, Norfolk, Worcester9 hr
Dec 11, 2:10 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBOXBristol, Norfolk, Plymouth8 hr
Dec 11, 2:41 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBOXBristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and 1 more7 hr
Dec 11, 6:59 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBOX3 days
Dec 11, 12:53 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningBOXWorcester30 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Massachusetts, 2023Every river flood warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.