Gale Warning 20, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

113 
WHUS71 KBOX 251840
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

ANZ256-260300-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-230326T0300Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-260500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0020.230325T2000Z-230326T0500Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 25 
  nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-261000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-261000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-261000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-260600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0600Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-260400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0400Z/
Narragansett Bay-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  2 to 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-260400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0400Z/
Boston Harbor-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  around 2 feet expected.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-260600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0600Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
240 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

363 
WHUS71 KBOX 260154
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

ANZ256-261500-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-230326T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230327T0000Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Winds becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30
  kt and seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-260500-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-230326T0500Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 6 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 25 
  nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-261200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-261200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-261200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-260600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0600Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-260400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0400Z/
Narragansett Bay-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves 
  2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-260400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0400Z/
Boston Harbor-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves 
  around 2 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-260600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0600Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
954 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

337 
WHUS71 KBOX 260501
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
101 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

ANZ254-255-261200-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-230326T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
101 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt,
  becoming southwest. Seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 25 
  nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-261200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
101 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Winds becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30
  kt and seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-261200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
101 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-261200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T1200Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
101 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-260615-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0600Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
101 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-260615-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230326T0600Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
101 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ256-261815-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-230327T0000Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
101 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
157 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system Saturday will bring a wintry mix across the
interior and higher terrain, with a cold rain elsewhere. Dry,
gusty and seasonably mild conditions return on Sunday, with
similar conditions overall for Monday. Turning more unsettled
Tuesday through Thursday with possible storminess around Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday but low confidence on the details
including precipitation amounts and precipitation types.
Temperatures trend near to below normal around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM update...

Just some thin cirrus across the region this evening which will
allow effective radiational cooling under light wind regime as
thicker cloud cover not arriving until late tonight. Lows
ranging through the 20s, except lower 30s near the coast.

Previous discussion:

Highlights...

* Seasonably cool and dry, with partly clear skies tonight.

No major weather concerns for this evening with surface high
pressure traversing across New England. Mid-level ridge slides off
shore tonight as a negatively tilted trough approaches from the
west. Given the weak pressure gradient winds are light from the
northwest but turn to the northeast, generally less than 5 knots.
Would not be shocked if a few locations go calm for a brief period
tonight. The forecast challenge tonight is focused around the sky
cover and low temperature. Newest 12z HREF guidance supports partly
clear conditions with high/mid clouds about. Forecast soundings on
BUFKIT supports this thinking as well with saturation occurring
between 500mb and 400mb. By the end of the night/early Saturday
morning much of the region will be under a cloudy blanket. As for
the low, generally upper-20s and low-30s. A few cooler spots in the
northern hills of Worcester County and east slope towns of the
Berkshires where lows may dip to the low-20s. Slightly warmer for
Cape Cod and the Islands, here lows are in the mid-30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* A brief window for dry weather on Saturday morning, followed by
  widespread rain and mixed ptype across the higher terrain.

Unsettled weather for Saturday as our next system emerges out of the
Great Lakes region. A developing surface low brings a mixed bag of
ptypes before transitioning over to all rain late Saturday night and
clearing before sunrise on Sunday. Impacts from this system remain
low with the greatest chance for minor accumulations across the
higher terrain of western Massachusetts and a few town in northern
Worcester County along the southern New Hampshire border. Generally
and snow at the onset will wash away with the rain, but any
accumulation would be less than one inch and patchy freezing rain
for the east slope towns of the Berkshires are less than a tenth of
an inch. Give the areal coverage is limited we decided to not issues
a Winter Weather Advisory, after collaborating with out neighboring
offices. For this system we will highlight any minor impacts through
a special weather statement and the Hazardous Weather Outlook for
late Saturday morning through the first half of Saturday through
predawn Sunday. Now lets dive into what is happening...

Weak mid-level ridging shifts east as a mid-level trough approaches
the midwest. The trough captures a developing surface low over the
Lower Mississippi River Valley and transport it towards the Great
Lakes. Models have been in agreement a secondary surface low
develops southeast of the primary low, over the Mid-Atlantic  before
tracking across southern New England. The onset has slowed a touch
since previous update, majority of guidance bring the precipitation
shield southwest to northeast across the CWA between 15z and 20z
Saturday. BUFKIT forecast soundings illustrate a thick layer of
drier air above the surface, likely the main reason why the onset
moved back a few hours. During the day temperatures are generally in
the mid-30s to low-40s.

Not out of the question places in northern Massachusetts have a few
snowflakes early, but it will be short-lived. Antecedent air in the
high terrain will allow for a couple hours of light snow or sleet
before changing over to rain/pockets of freezing rain. While the
major cities along the I-95 corridor likely start and end as rain.
Once again, our greatest confidence in sleet/freezing would be in
those elevated communities above 1000 ft. Then changing over to
plain rain 03z and 06z. Temperatures overnight are non-diurnal while
the interior maintains temperatures over night in the mid to upper-
30s the coastal plain will see temperatures rise through the 40s.

Mid-level dry air brings an end to the precipitation late Saturday
evening. One caveat, if newer guidance comes in quicker with the dry
slot we will have to trim back our POPs and precipitation totals.
When all is set and done we are looking at a wide spread 1/2 inch of
precipitation. Finally, we did leave a mention of thunder for the
southern waters and adjacent coastal land zones. The reason, as the
dry slot punches in will see mid level lapse rates steepen to
roughly 6-8 degrees Celsius. Should see a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE
available, so isolated thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Dry, seasonably mild but blustery on Sun. Possible fire wx
  concerns if less rain materializes Sat. Less gusty, dry and
  seasonable Mon.

* Unsettled, more active Tue into Wed, possibly lingering into Thu
  but low confidence on details, storm track and precip-type.

Details:

Sunday and Monday:

Complex low pressure area from Sat night moves northward into Sun,
with decreasing cloudiness and dry wx for this period. In its wake
is a strong WNW gradient flow and good mixing, particularly on Sun
but also continuing into Mon.

Expect two days of blustery/gusty and dry weather, falling dewpoints
in the afternoon and temps siding above normal. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
profiles suggest we could mix a bit higher in altitude than 850 mb
on Sun, and a little below that on Mon. Sunday looks to be the
gustier of the two days, with W/WNW gusts around 25-40 mph, highest
further to the north and especially in the higher terrain. NBM 4.1
suggests gusts could get near Advisory level Sun but shot just below
there as will need to reach at least to 850 mb before we start to
tap into the stronger flow aloft. If we don't get as much rain as
forecast for the Saturday system, it's possible we could have some
concerns for fire weather as RHs drop to 20-30 percent Sun as highs
reach into the mid 50s to low 60s. Lows on Sunday night were a
little milder than consensus, around the mid/upper 30s, as sustained
winds of 10-15 kt still look probable.

Gusts on Mon look lighter with gust speeds around 20 to 25 mph, with
highs in the 50s. Increasing clouds later in the evening, but
still anticipate mainly dry wx with similar lows to Sun night.

Tuesday through Thursday Night:

Low-amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern begins this period, with some
indications for slight amplification late Tue or Tue night.

Looks to be a progressive pattern but one that's also quite
challenging and a low-confidence forecast as deterministic NWP and
ensembles continue to project varied outcomes on strength and track
of a low pressure that moves offshore of the mid-Atlc Tue and Tue
night. A convectively-active se'rn CONUS Mon thru Tue offers both
questions on mass-field response and the extent of modeled northward
moisture return. A few ensemble members point to some wintry wx in
this timeframe, but as is typically the case with shoulder-month
wintry wx scenarios, precip rates/time of day/terrain are additional
factors besides the storm's track and moisture. Didn't say far from
continuity with this forecast; but after Saturday its around Tue
into potentially Wed when we could see our next chance for precip.

Temps this period trend cooler than normal, cooler on the highs and
around seasonable on the lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z...VFR.

Today...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR as rain and mixed precip
overspreads roughly 15-18z. A brief period of snow possible
north of the Mass Pike at the onset. Otherwise, rain and sleet
mix interior and all rain near the coast. Pockets of freezing
rain possible over the Berkshires. Increasing E winds 10-20 kt
this afternoon. Gusts 25-30 kt developing by late afternoon
along the south coast.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

IFR/LIFR conditions with rain, stratus and patchy fog. Rain
exits by 06z with conditions improving to VFR by daybreak. E
wind gusts to 25-35 kt along the coast this evening, diminishing
overnight and becoming SW.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. W wind gusts 25-35 kt developing by late morning.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs/vsbys lowering
around or just after 18z. May see a rain/sleet/snow mix at the
onset of the precip 16-18z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs/vsbys lowering
around or just after 16z. May see a rain/sleet mix at the onset
of the precip 14-16z.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

345 PM Update:

Overall moderate to high confidence.

Cancelled the existing SCA for the offshore waters as seas have
diminished to around or below 4 ft. We have hoisted SCAs on all
waters for Saturday (which continue thru 03z on the bays/harbors and
12z on all near/offshore waters). However gusts may get near or just
above Gale force for a time Sat aftn on the southern outer waters
but felt it was too uncertain and covg looked too spotty for gale
warnings.

Stronger confidence in the marine forecast through 12z Sat. NW winds
become N and light overnight, then become NE and increase to 15-20
kt. Seas around 2-4 ft. Dry wx.

Lowered confidence on the marine forecast after 12z Sat. E to SE
gusts increase at least to solid SCA criteria (25-30 kt) on all
waters, peaking Sat aftn. Low level jets are fairly strong and we
sided a little lower on the strongest gusts as mixing looks quite
shallow/significantly reduced given warmer air coming in aloft over
cooler SSTs. We can't rule out an occasional gust to 35 kt on the
southern outer waters, and it's possible that portions of the SCA
may need to be upgraded to Gale warnings if low level jet strength
increases. Seas increase to 4-8 ft. Rain and fog all waters,
possible rumble of thunder on the southern waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain, isolated
thunderstorms.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight
     for ANZ230-236.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ231-250-251-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Gaucher
NEAR TERM...KJC/Gaucher
SHORT TERM...Gaucher
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...KJC/Loconto
MARINE...Loconto/Gaucher

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
408 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

CTZ002>004-MAZ003-005>007-010>024-RIZ001>008-252015-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
408 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-252015-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
408 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ002-004-008-009-026-252015-
Western Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
408 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Massachusetts,
eastern Massachusetts and western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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