Gale Warning 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

348 
WHUS71 KBOX 122024
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
324 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

ANZ230-130930-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0004.230113T0300Z-230113T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.GL.W.0001.230113T0800Z-230113T1700Z/
Boston Harbor-
324 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves around 2 feet expected.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to noon EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-250-251-254>256-130930-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.230113T0300Z-230113T2100Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
324 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  6 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-130930-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.230113T0300Z-230113T2100Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
324 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay, Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-130930-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.230113T0300Z-230113T1800Z/
Narragansett Bay-
324 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

105 
WHUS71 KBOX 130832
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
332 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

ANZ235-237-250-251-254>256-132100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
332 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  6 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-132100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
332 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay, Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-131800-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T1800Z/
Narragansett Bay-
332 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-131700-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T1700Z/
Boston Harbor-
332 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves around 2 feet expected.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to noon EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

691 
WHUS71 KBOX 131150
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
650 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

ANZ251-140000-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.230113T1150Z-230114T0000Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
650 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-131700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.230113T1150Z-230113T1700Z/
Boston Harbor-
650 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-250-254>256-132100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
650 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  7 to 12 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Massachusetts coastal waters and Rhode 
  Island coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231>234-132100-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
650 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay, Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and 
  Buzzards Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-131800-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T1800Z/
Narragansett Bay-
650 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

726 
WHUS71 KBOX 131505
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

ANZ231-132100-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Cape Cod Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-132100-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-132100-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Nantucket Sound, 
  Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal 
  waters, Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-132100-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  8 to 12 feet.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal waters from 
  Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm and 
  Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas 
  Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, 
  Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending 
  out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ236-131700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230113T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T1700Z/
Narragansett Bay-
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Narragansett Bay.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-132100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-131700-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T1700Z/
Boston Harbor-
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  waves 2 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...Boston Harbor.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
316 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A storm system brings a period of slushy interior snow to the
interior with rain elsewhere early Thursday. Increasing south
winds and mild temperatures will accompany widespread rain
overnight Thursday through the first half of Friday. Rain comes
to an end from west to east Friday afternoon with spotty snow
showers across the higher terrain of northwest Massachusetts.
Dry, cool, and breezy for the upcoming weekend. Then trending
more mild into middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Pesky ocean effect snow showers, that actually advected from the
south/southeast, overnight should dissipate before 12Z along the
eastern MA coast as winds continue to shift southeast. Additionally,
the threat for freezing drizzle has diminished, and while still
possible through about 12-14Z across our western zones, the thermal
atmospheric profile is more supportive of scattered light
flurries; as we saw overnight with several locations from BDL to
Fitchburg reporting light snow.

Increasing prefrontal moisture associated with low pressure tracking
to our west across western PA and the Adirondacks will initiate
another round of light snow showers across our western zones
between about 12-14Z. Snow showers will gradually march eastward
through 18Z. Surface temperatures are already at or above
freezing from the I-95 corridor south and east, so precip while
it is possibly that some flakes mix in with rain showers across
eastern MA and RI, it is more likely that rain will be the
primary precipitation type across these areas. Given that
precipitation will be light, anticipating less than 1" of snow
or a snow/sleet mix can be expected across northern CT, western
and central MA, with perhaps 1-2" of snow possible across
northern Franklin county, before surface temperatures climb
above freezing this afternoon. While the SPS overnight was in
place for potential freezing drizzle, coatings of snow on
untreated surfaces could make for slick travel mid morning.

Strong southerly WAA will allow surface temperatures to climb above
freezing across our entire CWA by about 20-21Z resulting in a full
transition to rain. Thus, any snow that does accumulate this morning
will likely be washed away; much to the dismay of snow lovers!
Patchy fog is also expected to intermingle with showers this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

A non-diurnal temperature trend is expected as temps steadily
increase after sunset this evening as a warm front marches
northward. Temps, and subsequently daily highs, will approach 50F
across portions of CT and the south Coast by midnight! Warming trend
continues through about 17-18Z Friday, with Friday highs across
eastern MA soaring into the upper 50s. Even localities at elevation
will get in on the warm party, with widespread 50s expected
across southern New England!

Rain will continue to increase in both intensity and geographic
coverage overnight as low pressure tracks closer to New England.
Anticipating between 0.5" and 1" of QPF will fall across our CWA,
with the highest totals centered across the western half of southern
New England. An isolated rumble of thunder is also possible, with
the greatest chance between about 05 and 12Z given some minor
instability, with CAPE values exceeding 100J/kg over CT,
injects into our region.

The bigger story overnight will be increasing southerly winds as a
robust 925mb LLJ develops between 03 and 21Z. The most aggressive
guidance, such as the NAM, hints at winds of up to 75 kt will be
present just above the surface, while more conservative guidance
(the ECMWF and Canadian) hint at a LLJ of 50-60 kt. Regardless
of the intensity of the LLJ, we will have difficulty mixing
winds to the surface with WAA on southerly flow, and a strong
inversion in place. The only sources of guidance that mixed
advisory level winds to the surface were the NBM 90th percentile
and the NAMDNG (which typically presents us with a doomsday
scenario), so we opted to trend winds down from the previous
forecast; generally 30-35kt with isolated gusts 35-38kt along
the south coast. This downward trend in wind intensity is
supported by BUFKIT soundings, with both the NAM and GFS showing
the aforementioned strong inversion keeping the LLJ from mixing
to the surface. With that said, the inversion is quite steep,
showing winds as high as 55kt present down to as low as 980mb
across the south coast. This spells trouble for LLWS, which is
discussed more in the aviation section of the AFD. Piggybacking
off of the sentiment of the previous shift, confidence is too
low in persistent advisory level winds to hoist a wind advisory.

A cold front will begin to approach from the NW the second half of
Friday. Temperatures will drop quickly as the front moves across our
region. While daytime highs are expected sometime around the lunch
hour, temps could retract to the freezing mark across NW MA by 00Z
Saturday. A postfrontal wind shift from the SW to the NW is
expected, with winds falling back to between 5-15kt.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Soaking rains end Friday from west to east as a cold front clear
  the region, possibly ending as snow showers across northwest MA.

* Trending cooler and drier this weekend, low chance for snow
  flurries across outer Cape Cod Saturday. Becoming mostly sunny by
  Sunday.

Not much change to the overall projected synoptic pattern within the
latest guidance suite. Deep meridional mid level trough over the
central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic states expected to transition
to a negatively-tilted closed low over the North Atlantic by Monday
morning. This flow pattern then breaks down further into a less
amplified longwave mainly to our south by the middle of next week.

The end result should be a lingering offshore low pressure that
should be close enough to our region to maintain at least some risk
for precipitation this weekend across portions of southeast MA. This
is expected to be mainly rain, but cannot completely rule out some
light snow Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure briefly takes
over Monday with drier weather. Then we should be dealing with a
warm front associated with a low pressure moving from the Great
Lakes into the Saint Lawrence valley Tuesday into Wednesday, with a
chance for some rainfall, and perhaps some light snow at night.

Temperature-wise, expecting a trend to near to slightly below normal
temperatures this weekend into early next week. Persistent NW winds
should make it feel like the teens and 20s for most this weekend.
Some signals for a return to above normal temperatures towards the
middle of next week, but confidence is not very high on that just
yet.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

09z TAF Update:

Thru 12Z: High confidence in trends, moderate on timing.

Any remaining VFR ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR by sunrise.
IFR conditions in any persisting ocean effect snow showers and
across the high terrain. Ocean effect snow showers will come to
an end by about 08Z. Chance for light freezing drizzle or snow
flurries across western MA and CT between 08 and 12Z, though
confidence is low in the possibility and coverage of
precipitation across our western zones. Little to no additional
accumulation of snow expected through sunrise. Winds shift from
the E to SE.

Thursday: Moderate confidence in timing, high confidence in
trends.

MVFR ceilings further degrade to IFR as light snow showers
overpsread from west to east between 12-18Z. Sfc temperatures
are supportive of light rain showers at terminals south and east
of the I-95 corridor before all terminals switch to rain after
approximately 19Z. Cigs degrade to LIFR as rain increases in
intensity Thursday afternoon and early evening. VLIFR possible
across western MA and CT. Patchy fog will be intertwined with
-RASN. SE winds 8-10 kt anticipated with gusts up to 20 kt
 possible late Thursday afternoon.

Thursday Night: Moderate confidence in timing, high confidence
in trends.

IFR to VLIFR with rain, fog and stratus. Runways wet.
Increasing SE winds to 15-25 kt, gusts 25-40 kt strongest along
the southern coasts/southern airports. Low-level wind shear
seems likely late Thu night given S low-level jet of 50-60 kt.

Friday: Moderate confidence in timing, high confidence in
trends

LIFR/IFR conditions gradually improve to MVFR through the as
heaviest rain departs late Friday morning. Conditions will
improve to VFR at most terminals by 00Z Saturday. Gusty S/SW
winds, up to 35 kt along the south coast, become W/NW by Friday
evening, diminishing to 5-15kt.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Ocean effect snow showers come to an end as winds shift SE by
sunrise Thursday. -RASN possible at the terminal beginning
around 17Z. More widespread rain develops after 19Z and will
persist overnight. MVFR degrades to IFR by late Thursday
afternoon. E/NE winds will shift to the SE through the day, with
gusts over 15 kt possible by sunset. Surface temperatures
should remain at or above freezing through the period, warming
to well above freezing late Thurs-early Fri.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF, high confidence in
trend towards rain.

Borderline VFR/MVFR early Thurs quickly gives way to MVFR as
light snow showers develop as early as 13Z. -RASN expected much
of the morning before transitioning to all rain by mid-day.
Cigs further diminish to IFR as heavier rain develops late Thurs
afternoon/evening and persists through Fri am. Periods of VLIFR
possible. SE winds expected, increasing overnight Thursday with
gusts to 20-25kt possible. LLWS possible given strong southerly
winds around 1-2k ft.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Sunday through Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday...

High Confidence in Gale Force winds
Late Thursday night- Friday Afternoon. A Gale warning is in
place for all waters except Boston Harbor from 03Z-21Z Friday.
The Gale warning for Narragansett Bay will expire at 18Z. A
small craft advisory is in place for Boston Harbor for the same
period.

Light SE winds on this morning increase to 20-25 kt in gusts,
then increasing quickly toward Gale force gusts for overnight
Thurs into Friday (gusts 35-40 kt). Waves under 3 ft through
Thurs morning, then begin steady increase and becoming
increasingly rough through Thurs night, becoming 4-7 ft
nearshore and 7-10 ft offshore by Friday morning.

Rain will overspread by Thurs afternoon, interspersed with
areas of fog. Rain may be heavy at times Thurs night with
possible rumble of thunder Fri AM in the southern waters.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Slight chance of rain.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight
chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain,
slight chance of snow.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of snow.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory
winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for January 13th:

BOS: 63F - 1932
ORH: 62F - 1932
PVD: 63F - 2018
BDL: 59F - 2018

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Friday for ANZ230.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/KS
NEAR TERM...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/KS
MARINE...Belk/KS
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
408 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-009>024-RIZ001>008-122115-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
408 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-122115-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
408 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-122115-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
408 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ002>004-008-026-122115-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
408 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Massachusetts,
eastern Massachusetts and western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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