Alert archive / Rhode Island / Flash Flood Warnings in 2023
Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Boston/Norton, MA
NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this flash flood warning at Jul 16, 2023, 1:36 PM EDT for 5 counties in Rhode Island; Bristol County, Massachusetts; Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut. It was in force for 6 hr. 34 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 16, 2023, 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 16, 2023, 7:34 PM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Boston/Norton, MA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bristol County, MA, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI
The radar
The Boston radar (KBOX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 1:57 PM EDT | FLOOD | 1 S Cranston, RI | Flooding on Oaklawn Ave. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 1:57 PM EDT | FLOOD | 1 S Cranston, RI | Flooding on Oaklawn Ave. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 1:57 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 S Cranston, RI | Oaklawn ave flooded and impassable. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 1:57 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 S Cranston, RI | Oaklawn ave flooded and impassable. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 2:00 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | East Providence, RI | Pawtucket Ave at intersection of Allerton Ave is flooded and impassable due to reported heavy flooding. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 2:00 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | East Providence, RI | Pawtucket Ave at intersection of Allerton Ave is flooded and impassable due to reported heavy flooding. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 2:40 PM EDT | FLOOD | North Attleborough, MA | Chestnut Street closed due to flooding. |
| Jul 16, 2:40 PM EDT | FLOOD | North Attleborough, MA | Chestnut Street closed due to flooding. |
| Jul 16, 2:45 PM EDT | FLOOD | Attleborough, MA | Portion of Pleasant Street flooded with DPW responding. |
| Jul 16, 2:45 PM EDT | FLOOD | Attleborough, MA | Portion of Pleasant Street flooded with DPW responding. |
| Jul 16, 5:00 PM EDT | FLOOD | Providence, RI | Gano Street at Wickenden Street closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:00 PM EDT | FLOOD | Providence, RI | Gano Street at Wickenden Street closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:00 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 E Providence, RI | Gano St at Wickenden St in Providence was closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:00 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 E Providence, RI | Gano St at Wickenden St in Providence was closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:14 PM EDT | FLOOD | East Providence, RI | Underpass under Rebello Bridge closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:14 PM EDT | FLOOD | East Providence, RI | Underpass under Rebello Bridge closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:15 PM EDT | FLOOD | East Providence, RI | South Broadway at Hinghams Corner closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:15 PM EDT | FLOOD | East Providence, RI | South Broadway at Hinghams Corner closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:20 PM EDT | FLOOD | Pawtucket, RI | Mendon Avenue at Carter Street flooded with cars getting stuck. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:20 PM EDT | FLOOD | Pawtucket, RI | Mendon Avenue at Carter Street flooded with cars getting stuck. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:26 PM EDT | FLOOD | Providence, RI | Cadillac Drive flooded near Route 95. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:26 PM EDT | FLOOD | Providence, RI | Cadillac Drive flooded near Route 95. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:26 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 Ne Pawtucket, RI | Mendon Ave at Carter St flooded and impassable. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:26 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 Ne Pawtucket, RI | Mendon Ave at Carter St flooded and impassable. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:35 PM EDT | FLOOD | East Providence, RI | Rebello Tunnel closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:35 PM EDT | FLOOD | East Providence, RI | Rebello Tunnel closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:35 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 Nnw East Providence, RI | Rebello Tunnel in East Providence closed due to flooding. relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:35 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 Nnw East Providence, RI | Rebello Tunnel in East Providence closed due to flooding. relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:38 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 S Providence, RI | Rhode Island Dept of Transportation noted flooding reported in both directions of Interstate 95 near Elmwood Ave in Providence. |
| Jul 16, 5:38 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 S Providence, RI | Rhode Island Dept of Transportation noted flooding reported in both directions of Interstate 95 near Elmwood Ave in Providence. |
| Jul 16, 5:49 PM EDT | FLOOD | Cranston, RI | Reservoir Avenue has water covering entire road and flooded. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:49 PM EDT | FLOOD | Cranston, RI | Reservoir Avenue has water covering entire road and flooded. Relayed by Amateur Radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:49 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 E Cranston, RI | Water covering Reservoir Ave in Cranston. Relayed by amateur radio. |
| Jul 16, 5:49 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 E Cranston, RI | Water covering Reservoir Ave in Cranston. Relayed by amateur radio. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 7 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 21 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 236 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -31 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 766 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 193 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 223 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 6.0
The text
As transmitted.
944
WGUS51 KBOX 161736
FFWBOX
CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162045-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FF.W.0025.230716T1736Z-230716T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
136 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
The National Weather Service in Norton has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
East Central Windham County in northern Connecticut...
Southwestern Bristol County in southeastern Massachusetts...
Bristol County in Rhode Island...
Kent County in Rhode Island...
Newport County in Rhode Island...
Providence County in Rhode Island...
Washington County in Rhode Island...
* Until 445 PM EDT.
* At 136 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of
rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1
hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Urban flash
flooding is likely in Providence and Cranston areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East
Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence,
South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North
Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.
&&
LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Loconto5 follow-up statements
181
WGUS71 KBOX 161839
FFSBOX
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
239 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162045-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Windham CT-Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Kent RI-Newport RI-Providence RI-
Washington RI-
239 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDHAM, SOUTHWESTERN BRISTOL, BRISTOL,
KENT, NEWPORT, PROVIDENCE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. While
rainfall rates have started to level off from earlier excessive
levels, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible,
as heavy rains and embedded thunderstorms over Long Island New York
will move into the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring,
and worsened or new areas of flooding are anticipated as more heavy
rain moves into the warned area.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Law enforcement and trained weather spotters. Law
enforcement reports several roads in East Providence are
flooded and impassable, including a portion of Pawtucket
Ave near Allerton Ave. Oaklawn Ave in Cranston is also
flooded and impassable per trained spotters.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of urban areas, highways, streets and
underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying
areas. Urban flash flooding is likely in Providence and
Cranston areas. Sharp rises to potentially over bankfull
are likely on streams and creeks.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East
Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence,
South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North
Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.
&&
LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Loconto360
WGUS51 KBOX 162004
FFWBOX
CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162345-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
404 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
The National Weather Service in Norton has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
East Central Windham County in northern Connecticut...
Southwestern Bristol County in southeastern Massachusetts...
Bristol County in Rhode Island...
Kent County in Rhode Island...
Newport County in Rhode Island...
Providence County in Rhode Island...
Washington County in Rhode Island...
* Until 745 PM EDT.
* At 404 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of
rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1
hour. While rainfall rates have started to level off from earlier
excessive levels, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
possible, as heavy rains and embedded thunderstorms over
southeastern Connecticut will move into the warned area. Flash
flooding is already occurring, and worsened or new areas of
flooding are anticipated as more heavy rain moves into the warned
area.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Raadar, law enforcement and trained weather spotters.
Law enforcement reports several roads in East
Providence are flooded and impassable, including a
portion of Pawtucket Ave near Allerton Ave. Oaklawn
Ave in Cranston is also flooded and impassable per
trained spotters.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East
Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence,
South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North
Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.
&&
LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
$$
Loconto911
WGUS71 KBOX 162045
FFSBOX
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
445 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162345-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Windham CT-Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Kent RI-Newport RI-Providence RI-
Washington RI-
445 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDHAM, SOUTHWESTERN BRISTOL, BRISTOL,
KENT, NEWPORT, PROVIDENCE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Heavy
rains over southern Rhode Island into Long Island New York will move
over the warned area. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
are possible. Flash flooding has already occurred and additional
flooding is expected to develop in the warned area. With excessive
rainfall expected, significant flash flooding is possible, as
torrential rains move over the warned area over the next few hours.
This will especially be possible in the Providence, Warwick and
Cranston areas.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Radar. Areas of flooding are ongoing from earlier rounds
of heavy rain in East Providence and Cranston, per law
enforcement reports.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses. Inundation in
basements and businesses is possible. Rapid rises of
creeks and streams to over bankfull.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East
Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence,
South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North
Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.
&&
LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
Loconto082
WGUS71 KBOX 162206
FFSBOX
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
606 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162345-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Windham CT-Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Kent RI-Newport RI-Providence RI-
Washington RI-
606 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDHAM, SOUTHWESTERN BRISTOL, BRISTOL,
KENT, NEWPORT, PROVIDENCE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
At 606 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area, with the highest of
those rainfall totals across Washington, Kent, Newport, Bristol and
southern Providence Counties in Rhode Island. Flash flooding is
already occurring, and additional heavy rains are likely to worsen
or trigger new areas of flooding. Significant, considerable flash
flooding remains possible especially in the Providence, Warwick and
Cranston areas.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Law enforcement, emergency management, radar and
automated gauges. Providence Emergency Management Agency
reports street flooding in Providence. In addition,
Rhode Island Dept of Transportation reports flooding on
Interstate 95 near Elmwood Ave in Providence.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses. Inundation in
basements and businesses and road closures are possible.
Rapid rises of creeks and streams to over bankfull.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East
Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence,
South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North
Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.
&&
LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
AL639
WGUS71 KBOX 162334
FFSBOX
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
734 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162344-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Windham CT-Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Kent RI-Newport RI-Providence RI-
Washington RI-
734 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDHAM,
SOUTHWESTERN BRISTOL, BRISTOL, KENT, NEWPORT, PROVIDENCE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
The heavy rain has eased to light to occasionally moderate levels.
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures and stay away from rivers, streams and
creeks.
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT Monday for portions
of northern Connecticut. Portions of Massachusetts. Portions of
Rhode Island.
LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180
$$
ALWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 16, 11:49 AM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 11:49 AM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1149 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A very wet day is in store with downpours and thunderstorms leading to urban, poor drainage, and flash flooding across much of the region. Drying out for Monday before rain chances increase Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. Unsettled pattern leads to periods of dry and wet weather through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1145 AM Update: * Severe threat slowly diminishing - now focusing in E CT, central/NE MA, and NW RI * Significant flash flood threat continues We've removed Hartford County CT and Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties in western MA from the Tornado Watch now that the main area of showers/storms have pushed off to the east. Our main area of concern is now within the corridor of showers and storms running from E CT and NW RI into central and NE MA. We still have plenty of instability, especially focused in the 0-3km layer, and sufficient 0-1km/0-500m helicity but the best surface vorticity is now somewhat removed from the max instability. So while we still have a continued severe/tornado threat, the chances have begun to diminish a bit. Expectation is for short-lived circulations to persist into afternoon given environment in place. This is one of the more impressive situations we've seen in a while regarding the tornado threat. Although we do expect any tornadoes to be short- lived, they will be capable of producing damage. Our attention is also focused on flash flood threat which should not be overlooked as main area of showers/storms moves through region. Potential exists for rainfall rates of 2"+/hr in this tropical airmass, and we won't be surprised to see rainfall totals of 4-6"+ where showers/storms persist. Finally, we are reviewing latest high-res model data which suggests the potential for another round of heavy rainfall and possible flooding in RI and SE MA this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... Downpour and shower activity continue into the early overnight hours tonight, though thunderstorm coverage should wane a bit after sunset as instability falls off with the loss of daytime heating. Clearing from west to east will occur beginning around 03Z as the cold front begins to shift low level winds to the west. Precipitation should be wrapped up across all areas by 06Z, with the exception of the Cape and Islands, where showers may linger through about 09Z. Some breaks of sunshine should develop by sunrise across the western half of the CWA! Unfortunately, the cold front will not trigger much relief from the oppressive dewpoints that have been with us for the last few days, so temperatures wont budge much overnight, falling back only into the low-mid 70s once again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights... * Little change in the overall weather pattern next week with broad troughing over the east coast bringing another round of rain chances Tuesday. After a break Wed/Thu rain returns late week. * Warm and humid weather continues but dewpoints will finally drop to the mid-upper 60s by Wednesday into Thursday so it won't feel quite as muggy, at least for a while. Details... Monday through Tuesday... Global guidance offers no long term pattern change when we look at the 500 mb height field and the western U.S. ridge, eastern U.S. trough pattern. While we do get several reprieves from the unsettled weather this week, we'll remain periodically unsettled clear through next weekend thanks to this pattern. Monday will start wet in the very early morning hours but the plume of deep moisture moves east, offshore on Monday into early Tuesday with subtle mid level height rises which will keep SNE dry with a mix of clouds and sun. This dry weather will persist into Tuesday though we'll see clouds increasing ahead of an approaching trough and surface front. This feature moves through late Tuesday with the return of PWATs 1.5-2 inches which will bring the return of showers and thunderstorms. Models indicate a decent chance of some of these storms becoming strong to severe with CAPE over 1000 J/kg, low level lapse rates of 7.5c/km, and bulk shear of 30-35 kts. Key will be timing of the frontal forcing which, if it is too delayed would not be able to take advantage of the instability. Flash flooding will still be a concern in any downpours, given the wet antecedent conditions. Wednesday through Saturday... Finally a more substantial push of drier air for the whole region behind Tuesday night's front. Beneath modest mid level ridging dewpoints drop well into the 60s and PWATs into the 0.5-0.75 inch range through Thursday. Height rises and subsidence beneath a surface high should keep rain away until sometime around Thursday night/Friday when moisture surges north ahead of our next trough. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z Update... Today... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing Overnight fog/IFR conditions that developed across the south coast and Islands overnight will lift to MVFR, MVFR/IFR elsewhere with widespread drenching showers and thunderstorms. Conditions this morning, between 12-16Z, look particularly poor for western terminals with the possibility of a near stationary convective line forming near or along the I-84 corridor. Variety of TSRA and VCTS used at most terminals today, with the exception of the Cape and Islands. Heavy rain/thunderstorm threat begins to shift east after ~20Z. Gusty south/southwest winds possible, up to 20-30kt possible. Tonight...Moderate confidence in timing Downpours and thunderstorms taper off from west to east, with most terminals free of rain by 06Z, though some showers may linger across the Cape until 09Z. IFR/MVFR to begin the evening, lifting to MVFR/VFR by daybreak. A few thunderstorms possible overnight but confidence on coverage is much less after 00Z, thus, elected to leave out of the TAF. Winds shifting from the S/SW to the WSW as cold front approaches from the west. Monday... High confidence Lingering MVFR along the eastern MA coastline and Cape through 15Z, otherwise VFR with clearing skies. Light westerly winds shift to the SW by afternoon. KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. Shower activity becoming more widespread Sun AM with embedded thunder mid AM into the afternoon as a line of showers/storms moves in. Could see briefly higher gusts/heavy downpours if the line moves over the terminal. Still could have some thunder during the afternoon, but coverage appearing more spotty in nature. MVFR develops overnight, VFR possible by 12Z. KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. MVFR to IFR, heavy downpours and thunderstorms develop after 10Z this morning, becoming more widespread through 16Z as a near stationary convective line develops somewhere in the vicinity of BDL. Rain and thunderstorms expected all day, gradually deteriorating after 00Z tonight. MVFR improving to VFR by daybreak with a windshift to the west; 5-10kt. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Sunday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA, chance TSRA. Sunday Night: IFR. Breezy. Chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...Medium confidence Continued showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds are possible through the entire day. Winds stay out of the south with gusts up to 25 knots. Small Craft advisory will likely be needed along the outer waters with seas rising to 5-6 feet. Inner waters likely wont need small crafts with seas only 3-4 feet. Tonight Night...Medium confidence Decreasing southerly winds overnight but seas likely remain elevated at 4-5 feet for the outer waters and 3-4 feet for the inner waters. Winds begin to shift WSW near daybreak. Monday... High Confidence Lingering showers may persist across the eastern waters through 15Z, otherwise dry with good visibility. West winds 10-15kt shift to the SW through the day. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of thunderstorms, slight chance of rain showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Local visibility 1 nm or less. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood Warnings remain in place on the CT River from Hartford, south. Renewed flooding concerns likely to develop the second half of the weekend as an additional 2-4", locally 6"+, of rain may fall across southern New England; exacerbating existing flooding, or lead to new flooding elsewhere. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ002>004. MA...Flood Watch through late tonight for MAZ002>017-020-026. RI...Flood Watch through late tonight for RIZ001>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250-254>256. && SYNOPSIS...BW/KS NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...BW/KS MARINE...BW/KP/KS HYDROLOGY...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 11:39 AM EDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 CTZ003-004-MAZ004>007-012-014-026-RIZ001-002-171545- Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA- Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA- Southeast Middlesex MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI- Southeast Providence RI- 1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...TORNADO WATCH 497 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. CTZ002-MAZ002-003-008>011-013-015>017-020-RIZ003>007-171545- Hartford CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA- Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA- Eastern Hampden MA-Western Norfolk MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA- Northern Bristol MA-Southern Bristol MA-Western Kent RI- Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI- 1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, northern Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MAZ018-019-021>024-RIZ008-171545- Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA- Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI- 1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-171545- Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound- Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound- Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay- Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm- Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket- Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island- 1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at www.weather.gov/box/ehwo For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at www.weather.gov/boston You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSBoston You can follow us on Twitter at @NWSBoston
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 16, 12:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1213 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1144 AM Flash Flood 2 SE Fitchburg 42.57N 71.79W
07/16/2023 Worcester MA Public
Social media photo of structural damage to
Birch St in Fitchburg. Large sections of
asphalt lying on road with water rushing
down. Time estimated.
&&
ALSpecial weather statement, Jul 16, 12:42 PM EDT, 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1242 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
CTZ004-MAZ012-RIZ001>003-161730-
Windham CT-Southern Worcester MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-Southeast Providence RI-
1242 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Windham, southeastern Worcester, western Kent and Providence Counties
through 130 PM EDT...
At 1242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Plainfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
branches. Heavy rain could cause minor flooding
Locations impacted include...
Providence, Cranston, Pawtucket, Coventry, Cumberland, North
Providence, Johnston, Plainfield, Smithfield, Lincoln, Central Falls,
Killingly, Burrillville, Uxbridge, North Smithfield, Scituate,
Glocester, Putnam, Douglas and Brooklyn.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Get indoors when you hear thunder. Do not resume outdoor activities
until at least 30 minutes after the storm has passed.
Do not drive through flooded roads or underpasses. Avoid low lying
areas near small streams.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for northern
Connecticut...central Massachusetts...and Rhode Island.
&&
LAT...LON 4164 7179 4165 7186 4163 7196 4164 7196
4165 7203 4204 7170 4190 7138 4189 7138
4160 7169 4160 7179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 212DEG 25KT 4167 7189
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KPLocal storm report, Jul 16, 12:54 PM EDT, 42 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1254 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg North Brookfield 42.27N 72.08W
07/16/2023 Worcester MA Emergency Mngr
numerous large trees uprooted across town.
&&Special weather statement, Jul 16, 1:10 PM EDT, 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
110 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
MAZ013-017-018-020-RIZ001>007-161800-
Western Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Northwest Providence RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Western Kent RI-Newport RI-Southeast Providence RI-
110 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Norfolk, west central Plymouth, northwestern Bristol, Washington,
northern Newport, Kent, southeastern Providence and Bristol Counties
through 200 PM EDT...
At 109 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
West Warwick, moving northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
branches. Heavy rain may cause minor flooding.
Locations impacted include...
Providence, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, Taunton, East Providence,
Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence, South Kingstown, West
Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, Bridgewater, North Kingstown,
Bristol, Attleboro, Walpole, Mansfield and Easton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Get indoors when you hear thunder. Do not resume outdoor activities
until at least 30 minutes after the storm has passed.
Do not drive through flooded roads or underpasses. Avoid low lying
areas near small streams.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for Rhode Island.
&&
LAT...LON 4149 7180 4156 7179 4214 7124 4197 7095
4163 7135 4164 7135 4171 7129 4172 7134
4179 7137 4179 7138 4165 7136 4166 7137
4169 7145 4166 7141 4160 7140 4160 7137
4158 7144 4154 7142 4136 7164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 218DEG 42KT 4169 7152
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
KPLocal storm report, Jul 16, 1:13 PM EDT, 23 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
113 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1215 PM Flash Flood 3 E Ellington 41.90N 72.42W
07/16/2023 Tolland CT Public
Social media picture and report of roadway
damage on Shenipsit Lake Rd. Photo shows
cracking of asphalt. Time estimated.
&&
ALLocal storm report, Jul 16, 1:26 PM EDT, 10 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
126 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0835 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg Rocky Hill 41.67N 72.63W
07/16/2023 Hartford CT Broadcast Media
Large tree uprooted per picture on social
media. Time estimated by radar.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 11:43 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BOX | Providence | 47 min |
| Jul 16, 12:42 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BOX | Providence | 48 min |
| Jul 16, 1:10 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BOX | Bristol, Kent, Washington | 50 min |
| Jul 16, 3:10 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BOX | Kent, Providence | 34 hr |
| Jul 16, 7:51 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BOX | Washington | 42 hr |
| Jul 16, 8:15 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BOX | Essex, Middlesex, Worcester | 45 min |
| Jul 16, 8:17 AM EDT | Tornado Warning | BOX | Essex, Middlesex | 28 min |
| Jul 16, 8:43 AM EDT | Tornado Warning | BOX | Middlesex | 22 min |
| Jul 16, 9:02 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BOX | Worcester | 43 min |
| Jul 16, 9:23 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BOX | Hampden, Hampshire | 3 hr |
| Jul 16, 9:30 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BOX | Middlesex, Worcester | 45 min |
| Jul 16, 10:10 AM EDT | Tornado Warning | BOX | Middlesex, Worcester | 20 min |
| Jul 16, 10:16 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BOX | Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester | 44 min |
| Jul 16, 10:49 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BOX | Hampden, Worcester | 3 hr |
| Jul 16, 10:53 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BOX | Middlesex, Worcester | 3 hr |
| Jul 16, 11:50 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | BOX | Worcester | 6 hr |
| Jul 16, 11:53 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BOX | Essex | 52 min |
| Jul 16, 12:24 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | BOX | Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk | 3 hr |
| Jul 16, 12:48 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BOX | 27 min | |
| Jul 16, 1:55 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | BOX | Hampshire | 88 min |
| Jul 16, 2:06 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BOX | Essex | 54 min |
| Jul 16, 2:19 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BOX | Bristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and 1 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 16, 5:29 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BOX | Bristol, Plymouth | 4 hr |
| Jul 16, 7:51 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BOX | Hampden | 36 hr |
| Jul 16, 8:54 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BOX | 51 min | |
| Jul 16, 9:15 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BOX | Capitol Planning Region | 45 min |
| Jul 16, 9:51 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BOX | 54 min | |
| Jul 16, 3:40 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BOX | Capitol Planning Region | 11 hr |
| Jul 16, 4:02 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | BOX | Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 3 hr |
| Jul 16, 7:51 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | BOX | Capitol Planning Region | 25 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Rhode Island, 2023Flash Flood Warnings in Massachusetts, 2023Flash Flood Warnings in Connecticut, 2023Every flash flood warning in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.