Alert archive / Rhode Island / Flash Flood Warnings in 2023

Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

July 16, 20235 counties in Rhode Island; Bristol County, Massachusetts; Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this flash flood warning at Jul 16, 2023, 1:36 PM EDT for 5 counties in Rhode Island; Bristol County, Massachusetts; Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut. It was in force for 6 hr. 34 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 16, 2023, 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC)
Expired
Jul 16, 2023, 7:34 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bristol County, MA, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 16, 1:57 PM EDTFLOOD1 S Cranston, RIFlooding on Oaklawn Ave. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 1:57 PM EDTFLOOD1 S Cranston, RIFlooding on Oaklawn Ave. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 1:57 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 S Cranston, RIOaklawn ave flooded and impassable. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 1:57 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 S Cranston, RIOaklawn ave flooded and impassable. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 2:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOODEast Providence, RIPawtucket Ave at intersection of Allerton Ave is flooded and impassable due to reported heavy flooding. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 2:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOODEast Providence, RIPawtucket Ave at intersection of Allerton Ave is flooded and impassable due to reported heavy flooding. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 2:40 PM EDTFLOODNorth Attleborough, MAChestnut Street closed due to flooding.
Jul 16, 2:40 PM EDTFLOODNorth Attleborough, MAChestnut Street closed due to flooding.
Jul 16, 2:45 PM EDTFLOODAttleborough, MAPortion of Pleasant Street flooded with DPW responding.
Jul 16, 2:45 PM EDTFLOODAttleborough, MAPortion of Pleasant Street flooded with DPW responding.
Jul 16, 5:00 PM EDTFLOODProvidence, RIGano Street at Wickenden Street closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:00 PM EDTFLOODProvidence, RIGano Street at Wickenden Street closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 E Providence, RIGano St at Wickenden St in Providence was closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur radio.
Jul 16, 5:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 E Providence, RIGano St at Wickenden St in Providence was closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur radio.
Jul 16, 5:14 PM EDTFLOODEast Providence, RIUnderpass under Rebello Bridge closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:14 PM EDTFLOODEast Providence, RIUnderpass under Rebello Bridge closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:15 PM EDTFLOODEast Providence, RISouth Broadway at Hinghams Corner closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:15 PM EDTFLOODEast Providence, RISouth Broadway at Hinghams Corner closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:20 PM EDTFLOODPawtucket, RIMendon Avenue at Carter Street flooded with cars getting stuck. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:20 PM EDTFLOODPawtucket, RIMendon Avenue at Carter Street flooded with cars getting stuck. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:26 PM EDTFLOODProvidence, RICadillac Drive flooded near Route 95. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:26 PM EDTFLOODProvidence, RICadillac Drive flooded near Route 95. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:26 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Ne Pawtucket, RIMendon Ave at Carter St flooded and impassable. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 5:26 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Ne Pawtucket, RIMendon Ave at Carter St flooded and impassable. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 5:35 PM EDTFLOODEast Providence, RIRebello Tunnel closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:35 PM EDTFLOODEast Providence, RIRebello Tunnel closed due to flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:35 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Nnw East Providence, RIRebello Tunnel in East Providence closed due to flooding. relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 5:35 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Nnw East Providence, RIRebello Tunnel in East Providence closed due to flooding. relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 5:38 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 S Providence, RIRhode Island Dept of Transportation noted flooding reported in both directions of Interstate 95 near Elmwood Ave in Providence.
Jul 16, 5:38 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 S Providence, RIRhode Island Dept of Transportation noted flooding reported in both directions of Interstate 95 near Elmwood Ave in Providence.
Jul 16, 5:49 PM EDTFLOODCranston, RIReservoir Avenue has water covering entire road and flooded. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:49 PM EDTFLOODCranston, RIReservoir Avenue has water covering entire road and flooded. Relayed by Amateur Radio.
Jul 16, 5:49 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 E Cranston, RIWater covering Reservoir Ave in Cranston. Relayed by amateur radio.
Jul 16, 5:49 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 E Cranston, RIWater covering Reservoir Ave in Cranston. Relayed by amateur radio.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 7 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 21 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2023-07-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 236 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2023-07-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 193 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
236 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
766 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
193 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
223 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
6.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

944 
WGUS51 KBOX 161736
FFWBOX
CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162045-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FF.W.0025.230716T1736Z-230716T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
136 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

The National Weather Service in Norton has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  East Central Windham County in northern Connecticut...
  Southwestern Bristol County in southeastern Massachusetts...
  Bristol County in Rhode Island...
  Kent County in Rhode Island...
  Newport County in Rhode Island...
  Providence County in Rhode Island...
  Washington County in Rhode Island...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 136 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of 
  rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 
  hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in 
  the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Urban flash
           flooding is likely in Providence and Cranston areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East 
  Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence, 
  South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North 
  Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
      4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
      4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
      4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Loconto
5 follow-up statements
181 
WGUS71 KBOX 161839
FFSBOX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
239 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162045-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Windham CT-Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Kent RI-Newport RI-Providence RI-
Washington RI-
239 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDHAM, SOUTHWESTERN BRISTOL, BRISTOL, 
KENT, NEWPORT, PROVIDENCE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. While 
rainfall rates have started to level off from earlier excessive 
levels, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible, 
as heavy rains and embedded thunderstorms over Long Island New York 
will move into the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring, 
and worsened or new areas of flooding are anticipated as more heavy 
rain moves into the warned area.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Law enforcement and trained weather spotters. Law
         enforcement reports several roads in East Providence are
         flooded and impassable, including a portion of Pawtucket
         Ave near Allerton Ave. Oaklawn Ave in Cranston is also
         flooded and impassable per trained spotters.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of urban areas, highways, streets and
         underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying
         areas. Urban flash flooding is likely in Providence and
         Cranston areas. Sharp rises to potentially over bankfull
         are likely on streams and creeks.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East 
  Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence, 
  South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North 
  Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
      4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
      4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
      4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Loconto
360 
WGUS51 KBOX 162004
FFWBOX
CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162345-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
404 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

The National Weather Service in Norton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  East Central Windham County in northern Connecticut...
  Southwestern Bristol County in southeastern Massachusetts...
  Bristol County in Rhode Island...
  Kent County in Rhode Island...
  Newport County in Rhode Island...
  Providence County in Rhode Island...
  Washington County in Rhode Island...

* Until 745 PM EDT.

* At 404 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of 
  rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 
  hour. While rainfall rates have started to level off from earlier 
  excessive levels, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are 
  possible, as heavy rains and embedded thunderstorms over 
  southeastern Connecticut will move into the warned area. Flash 
  flooding is already occurring, and worsened or new areas of 
  flooding are anticipated as more heavy rain moves into the warned 
  area.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Raadar, law enforcement and trained weather spotters.
           Law enforcement reports several roads in East
           Providence are flooded and impassable, including a
           portion of Pawtucket Ave near Allerton Ave. Oaklawn
           Ave in Cranston is also flooded and impassable per
           trained spotters.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East 
  Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence, 
  South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North 
  Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
      4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
      4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
      4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Loconto
911 
WGUS71 KBOX 162045
FFSBOX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
445 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162345-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Windham CT-Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Kent RI-Newport RI-Providence RI-
Washington RI-
445 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDHAM, SOUTHWESTERN BRISTOL, BRISTOL, 
KENT, NEWPORT, PROVIDENCE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Heavy 
rains over southern Rhode Island into Long Island New York will move 
over the warned area. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches 
are possible. Flash flooding has already occurred and additional 
flooding is expected to develop in the warned area. With excessive 
rainfall expected, significant flash flooding is possible, as 
torrential rains move over the warned area over the next few hours. 
This will especially be possible in the Providence, Warwick and 
Cranston areas.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar. Areas of flooding are ongoing from earlier rounds
         of heavy rain in East Providence and Cranston, per law
         enforcement reports.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses. Inundation in
         basements and businesses is possible. Rapid rises of
         creeks and streams to over bankfull.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East 
  Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence, 
  South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North 
  Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
      4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
      4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
      4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Loconto
082 
WGUS71 KBOX 162206
FFSBOX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
606 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162345-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Windham CT-Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Kent RI-Newport RI-Providence RI-
Washington RI-
606 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDHAM, SOUTHWESTERN BRISTOL, BRISTOL, 
KENT, NEWPORT, PROVIDENCE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 606 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 
2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area, with the highest of 
those rainfall totals across Washington, Kent, Newport, Bristol and 
southern Providence Counties in Rhode Island. Flash flooding is 
already occurring, and additional heavy rains are likely to worsen 
or trigger new areas of flooding. Significant, considerable flash 
flooding remains possible especially in the Providence, Warwick and 
Cranston areas.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement, emergency management, radar and
         automated gauges. Providence Emergency Management Agency
         reports street flooding in Providence. In addition,
         Rhode Island Dept of Transportation reports flooding on
         Interstate 95 near Elmwood Ave in Providence.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses. Inundation in
         basements and businesses and road closures are possible.
         Rapid rises of creeks and streams to over bankfull.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, East 
  Providence, Woonsocket, Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence, 
  South Kingstown, West Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, North 
  Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Attleboro, Westerly and Smithfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
      4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
      4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
      4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AL
639 
WGUS71 KBOX 162334
FFSBOX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
734 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

CTC015-MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-162344-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230716T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Windham CT-Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Kent RI-Newport RI-Providence RI-
Washington RI-
734 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL WINDHAM, 
SOUTHWESTERN BRISTOL, BRISTOL, KENT, NEWPORT, PROVIDENCE AND 
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has eased to light to occasionally moderate levels. 
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures and stay away from rivers, streams and 
creeks.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT Monday for portions 
of northern Connecticut. Portions of Massachusetts. Portions of 
Rhode Island.

LAT...LON 4201 7181 4202 7138 4199 7138 4201 7130
      4195 7125 4182 7123 4166 7114 4152 7113
      4145 7118 4133 7181 4136 7182 4142 7181
      4142 7180 4164 7179 4164 7180

$$

AL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 16, 11:49 AM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 11:49 AM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1149 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A very wet day is in store with downpours and thunderstorms
leading to urban, poor drainage, and flash flooding across much
of the region. Drying out for Monday before rain chances
increase Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region.
Unsettled pattern leads to periods of dry and wet weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1145 AM Update:

* Severe threat slowly diminishing - now focusing in E CT,
  central/NE MA, and NW RI

* Significant flash flood threat continues

We've removed Hartford County CT and Franklin, Hampshire, and
Hampden Counties in western MA from the Tornado Watch now that
the main area of showers/storms have pushed off to the east. Our
main area of concern is now within the corridor of showers and
storms running from E CT and NW RI into central and NE MA. We
still have plenty of instability, especially focused in the
0-3km layer, and sufficient 0-1km/0-500m helicity but the best
surface vorticity is now somewhat removed from the max
instability. So while we still have a continued severe/tornado
threat, the chances have begun to diminish a bit.

Expectation is for short-lived circulations to persist into
afternoon given environment in place. This is one of the more
impressive situations we've seen in a while regarding the
tornado threat. Although we do expect any tornadoes to be short-
lived, they will be capable of producing damage.

Our attention is also focused on flash flood threat which should
not be overlooked as main area of showers/storms moves through
region. Potential exists for rainfall rates of 2"+/hr in this
tropical airmass, and we won't be surprised to see rainfall
totals of 4-6"+ where showers/storms persist.

Finally, we are reviewing latest high-res model data which
suggests the potential for another round of heavy rainfall and
possible flooding in RI and SE MA this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
Downpour and shower activity continue into the early overnight hours
tonight, though thunderstorm coverage should wane a bit after sunset
as instability falls off with the loss of daytime heating. Clearing
from west to east will occur beginning around 03Z as the cold front
begins to shift low level winds to the west. Precipitation should be
wrapped up across all areas by 06Z, with the exception of the Cape
and Islands, where showers may linger through about 09Z. Some breaks
of sunshine should develop by sunrise across the western half of the
CWA!

Unfortunately, the cold front will not trigger much relief from the
oppressive dewpoints that have been with us for the last few days,
so temperatures wont budge much overnight, falling back only into
the low-mid 70s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Little change in the overall weather pattern next week with broad
  troughing over the east coast bringing another round of rain
  chances Tuesday. After a break Wed/Thu rain returns late week.

* Warm and humid weather continues but dewpoints will finally drop
  to the mid-upper 60s by Wednesday into Thursday so it won't feel
  quite as muggy, at least for a while.

Details...

Monday through Tuesday...

Global guidance offers no long term pattern change when we look at
the 500 mb height field and the western U.S. ridge, eastern U.S.
trough pattern. While we do get several reprieves from the unsettled
weather this week, we'll remain periodically unsettled clear through
next weekend thanks to this pattern.

Monday will start wet in the very early morning hours but the plume
of deep moisture moves east, offshore on Monday into early Tuesday
with subtle mid level height rises which will keep SNE dry with a
mix of clouds and sun. This dry weather will persist into Tuesday
though we'll see clouds increasing ahead of an approaching trough
and surface front. This feature moves through late Tuesday with the
return of PWATs 1.5-2 inches which will bring the return of showers
and thunderstorms. Models indicate a decent chance of some of these
storms becoming strong to severe with CAPE over 1000 J/kg, low level
lapse rates of 7.5c/km, and bulk shear of 30-35 kts. Key will be
timing of the frontal forcing which, if it is too delayed would not
be able to take advantage of the instability. Flash flooding will
still be a concern in any downpours, given the wet antecedent
conditions.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Finally a more substantial push of drier air for the whole region
behind Tuesday night's front. Beneath modest mid level ridging
dewpoints drop well into the 60s and PWATs into the 0.5-0.75 inch
range through Thursday. Height rises and subsidence beneath a
surface high should keep rain away until sometime around Thursday
night/Friday when moisture surges north ahead of our next trough.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence
Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z Update...

Today... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing

Overnight fog/IFR conditions that developed across the
south coast and Islands overnight will lift to MVFR, MVFR/IFR
elsewhere with widespread drenching showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions this morning, between 12-16Z, look particularly poor
for western terminals with the possibility of a near stationary
convective line forming near or along the I-84 corridor. Variety
of TSRA and VCTS used at most terminals today, with the
exception of the Cape and Islands. Heavy rain/thunderstorm
threat begins to shift east after ~20Z. Gusty south/southwest
winds possible, up to 20-30kt possible.

Tonight...Moderate confidence in timing

Downpours and thunderstorms taper off from west to east, with
most terminals free of rain by 06Z, though some showers may
linger across the Cape until 09Z. IFR/MVFR to begin the evening,
lifting to MVFR/VFR by daybreak. A few thunderstorms possible
overnight but confidence on coverage is much less after 00Z,
thus, elected to leave out of the TAF. Winds shifting from the
S/SW to the WSW as cold front approaches from the west.

Monday... High confidence

Lingering MVFR along the eastern MA coastline and Cape through
15Z, otherwise VFR with clearing skies. Light westerly winds
shift to the SW by afternoon.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Shower activity becoming more widespread Sun AM with embedded
thunder mid AM into the afternoon as a line of showers/storms
moves in. Could see briefly higher gusts/heavy downpours if the
line moves over the terminal. Still could have some thunder
during the afternoon, but coverage appearing more spotty in
nature. MVFR develops overnight, VFR possible by 12Z.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

MVFR to IFR, heavy downpours and thunderstorms develop after
10Z this morning, becoming more widespread through 16Z as a near
stationary convective line develops somewhere in the vicinity
of BDL. Rain and thunderstorms expected all day, gradually
deteriorating after 00Z tonight. MVFR improving to VFR by
daybreak with a windshift to the west; 5-10kt.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Sunday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA,
chance TSRA.

Sunday Night: IFR. Breezy. Chance TSRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Medium confidence

Continued showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds
are possible through the entire day. Winds stay out of the south
with gusts up to 25 knots. Small Craft advisory will likely be
needed along the outer waters with seas rising to 5-6 feet. Inner
waters likely wont need small crafts with seas only 3-4 feet.

Tonight Night...Medium confidence

Decreasing southerly winds overnight but seas likely remain elevated
at 4-5 feet for the outer waters and 3-4 feet for the inner waters.
Winds begin to shift WSW near daybreak.

Monday... High Confidence

Lingering showers may persist across the eastern waters through
15Z, otherwise dry with good visibility. West winds 10-15kt
shift to the SW through the day.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of thunderstorms, slight chance of rain showers. Visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warnings remain in place on the CT River from Hartford,
south. Renewed flooding concerns likely to develop the second
half of the weekend as an additional 2-4", locally 6"+, of rain
may fall across southern New England; exacerbating existing
flooding, or lead to new flooding elsewhere.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through late tonight for MAZ002>017-020-026.
RI...Flood Watch through late tonight for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BW/KS
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/KS
MARINE...BW/KP/KS
HYDROLOGY...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 11:39 AM EDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

CTZ003-004-MAZ004>007-012-014-026-RIZ001-002-171545-
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 497 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts
and northern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002-MAZ002-003-008>011-013-015>017-020-RIZ003>007-171545-
Hartford CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Western Norfolk MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Southern Bristol MA-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, eastern
Massachusetts, southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts,
northern Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ018-019-021>024-RIZ008-171545-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts
and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-171545-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
1139 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 12:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1213 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 AM     Flash Flood      2 SE Fitchburg          42.57N 71.79W
07/16/2023                   Worcester          MA   Public

            Social media photo of structural damage to
            Birch St in Fitchburg. Large sections of
            asphalt lying on road with water rushing
            down. Time estimated.

&&

AL
Special weather statement, Jul 16, 12:42 PM EDT, 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1242 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

CTZ004-MAZ012-RIZ001>003-161730-
Windham CT-Southern Worcester MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-Southeast Providence RI-
1242 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Windham, southeastern Worcester, western Kent and Providence Counties
through 130 PM EDT...

At 1242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Plainfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
         branches. Heavy rain could cause minor flooding

Locations impacted include...
Providence, Cranston, Pawtucket, Coventry, Cumberland, North
Providence, Johnston, Plainfield, Smithfield, Lincoln, Central Falls,
Killingly, Burrillville, Uxbridge, North Smithfield, Scituate,
Glocester, Putnam, Douglas and Brooklyn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when you hear thunder. Do not resume outdoor activities
until at least 30 minutes after the storm has passed.

Do not drive through flooded roads or underpasses. Avoid low lying
areas near small streams.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for northern
Connecticut...central Massachusetts...and Rhode Island.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7179 4165 7186 4163 7196 4164 7196
      4165 7203 4204 7170 4190 7138 4189 7138
      4160 7169 4160 7179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 212DEG 25KT 4167 7189

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KP
Local storm report, Jul 16, 12:54 PM EDT, 42 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1254 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     North Brookfield        42.27N 72.08W
07/16/2023                   Worcester          MA   Emergency Mngr

            numerous large trees uprooted across town.

&&
Special weather statement, Jul 16, 1:10 PM EDT, 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
110 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

MAZ013-017-018-020-RIZ001>007-161800-
Western Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Northwest Providence RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Western Kent RI-Newport RI-Southeast Providence RI-
110 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Norfolk, west central Plymouth, northwestern Bristol, Washington,
northern Newport, Kent, southeastern Providence and Bristol Counties
through 200 PM EDT...

At 109 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
West Warwick, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed
         branches. Heavy rain may cause minor flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Providence, Warwick, Cranston, Pawtucket, Taunton, East Providence,
Coventry, Cumberland, North Providence, South Kingstown, West
Warwick, Johnston, North Attleborough, Bridgewater, North Kingstown,
Bristol, Attleboro, Walpole, Mansfield and Easton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when you hear thunder. Do not resume outdoor activities
until at least 30 minutes after the storm has passed.

Do not drive through flooded roads or underpasses. Avoid low lying
areas near small streams.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for Rhode Island.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 7180 4156 7179 4214 7124 4197 7095
      4163 7135 4164 7135 4171 7129 4172 7134
      4179 7137 4179 7138 4165 7136 4166 7137
      4169 7145 4166 7141 4160 7140 4160 7137
      4158 7144 4154 7142 4136 7164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 218DEG 42KT 4169 7152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KP
Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:13 PM EDT, 23 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
113 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Flash Flood      3 E Ellington           41.90N 72.42W
07/16/2023                   Tolland            CT   Public

            Social media picture and report of roadway
            damage on Shenipsit Lake Rd. Photo shows
            cracking of asphalt. Time estimated.

&&

AL
Local storm report, Jul 16, 1:26 PM EDT, 10 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
126 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Rocky Hill              41.67N 72.63W
07/16/2023                   Hartford           CT   Broadcast Media

            Large tree uprooted per picture on social
            media. Time estimated by radar.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 16, 11:43 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBOXProvidence47 min
Jul 16, 12:42 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBOXProvidence48 min
Jul 16, 1:10 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBOXBristol, Kent, Washington50 min
Jul 16, 3:10 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXKent, Providence34 hr
Jul 16, 7:51 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXWashington42 hr
Jul 16, 8:15 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXEssex, Middlesex, Worcester45 min
Jul 16, 8:17 AM EDTTornado WarningBOXEssex, Middlesex28 min
Jul 16, 8:43 AM EDTTornado WarningBOXMiddlesex22 min
Jul 16, 9:02 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBOXWorcester43 min
Jul 16, 9:23 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningBOXHampden, Hampshire3 hr
Jul 16, 9:30 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXMiddlesex, Worcester45 min
Jul 16, 10:10 AM EDTTornado WarningBOXMiddlesex, Worcester20 min
Jul 16, 10:16 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXHampden, Hampshire, Worcester44 min
Jul 16, 10:49 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningBOXHampden, Worcester3 hr
Jul 16, 10:53 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningBOXMiddlesex, Worcester3 hr
Jul 16, 11:50 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXWorcester6 hr
Jul 16, 11:53 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBOXEssex52 min
Jul 16, 12:24 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningBOXEssex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk3 hr
Jul 16, 12:48 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningBOX27 min
Jul 16, 1:55 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningBOXHampshire88 min
Jul 16, 2:06 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBOXEssex54 min
Jul 16, 2:19 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBOXBristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and 1 more5 hr
Jul 16, 5:29 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBOXBristol, Plymouth4 hr
Jul 16, 7:51 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXHampden36 hr
Jul 16, 8:54 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBOX51 min
Jul 16, 9:15 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region45 min
Jul 16, 9:51 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBOX54 min
Jul 16, 3:40 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region11 hr
Jul 16, 4:02 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningBOXNortheastern Connecticut Planning Region3 hr
Jul 16, 7:51 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region25 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Rhode Island, 2023Flash Flood Warnings in Massachusetts, 2023Flash Flood Warnings in Connecticut, 2023Every flash flood warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.