Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT WED AUG 9 2023

Models show a break late this evening through around midnight.
Another wave of storms is expected to move from western TN into
northwest central Alabama between midnight and 2 am. From here,
the line will move very quickly east and move out of the state by
3 or 4 am. Shear will be very high, though instabilities will be
limited. The strength of these storms highly depends on what
activity occurs across the northern counties this afternoon and
how much the area can be worked through. Damaging winds will be
possible with any strong to severe storms overnight.

A boundary will then move into the state bringing a chance for
more convection through the rest of the day on Thursday. Exact
timing and location of the boundary and storm development could
change, but for now, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the morning and afternoon across the northern
half of the state. There will be enough shear, moisture, and
instabilities remaining for a few severe storms to be possible.
The boundary is expected to continue to weaken through the day,
with more isolated storms possible in the southern half of the
area through the afternoon.

Heat indices will again be in the triple digits across the south
today, with a Heat Advisory to remain in effect. Tomorrow, heat
indices will be 105 in several counties in the south, south of the
boundary. Will continue the Heat Advisory for now through the
evening, though depending on cloud cover tomorrow, a few of the
northern counties in the Advisory may need to be cancelled early.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT WED AUG 9 2023

No major changes were made to the extended. Scattered storms will
remain possible for Friday night with NW flow around the N Gulf
upper ridge. NW flow continues for the weekend but with a tad less
low level moisture with the upper ridge expanding N and NW.
Diurnal storms will remain possible over the weekend. A front is
progged to move into AL Mon into Tue with continued storms chances
along and ahead of the boundary. Depending on how far S the
boundary gets, extended guidance tries to bring some drier air at
the least into the NRN counties for the middle of next week
across the N half of C AL. This should help the humidity at the
least.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT WED AUG 9 2023

Thursday and Friday.

Mid-level ridging will begin to build over Central Gulf of Mexico
to begin the long-term forecast period while a more zonal flow
pattern aloft will allow more disturbances to move east from over
the Central Plains to over the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley
Regions through the day Thursday. Expect chances for showers and
thunderstorms to be highest across the far northern counties with
lower chances further south. A shortwave trough will move east
over the Southern Appalachians on Friday, resulting in the better
chances for shower and thunderstorm activity being across the
northern and eastern counties.

Saturday through Tuesday.

The mid-level ridging will continue to gradually amplify further
on Saturday, resulting in a more isolated coverage of shower and
thunderstorm activity each day through the weekend. Global model
solutions begin to diverge significantly toward Monday with regard
to ridge strength over our area along with the amplification of
an upper low over Northeast Canada and potential compact mid-level
low over the Northern Plains. General trends are for the ridging
over us to weaken to an extent, permitting some increase in PoPs
across the south/southeast counties by Tuesday.

Hazard assessment... heat concerns continue.

Heat will remain the story through the extended forecast period
with heat indices around 105 expected across the southern half of
the area on Thursday, followed by all but the far north/northeast
on Friday with potential for values near 100 south. Values will be
around 105 degrees for most of the area Saturday and Sunday with
values again near 110 far south. Some limited relief may
materialize across the far north/northeast counties Monday while
the rest of the area will continue to experience values over 105
degrees with readings close to 110 possible far southeast and far
west. Some reduction in the heat indices across the northern half
of the area may materialize on Tuesday, but it is good to remain
cautious given the aforementioned spread in guidance solutions
this far out.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2023

Currently all TAF sites are in a lull for showers and storms.
Currently watching another convective complex sliding across
western TN and northern MS. Looks like the strongest activity will
slide north of Central AL TAF sites, but still could see some
showers and storms move into the area before sunrise. Right now it
appears that activity will reach BHM and ANB by 10z, TCL, EET, and
ASN by 11z. Generally looking at 2 to 3 hours for that activity to
work through. Behind this band we could see some brief MVFR
ceilings across the north. Latest trends keep this band from
impacting the southern TAF sites. With that said there will likely
be some boundaries around in the south, so included a prob30 at
MGM right around 21z. Several models bring another round of storms
through late afternoon/early evening from north to south. Looks
like 1z and BHM and ANB, then 2z at the rest of the north. Looks
like this band may make it into MGM by 3 to 4z. Most of the
activity will remain north of TOI through this cycle.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain higher across
the northern counties through Friday, followed by isolated to
scattered activity expected across the area over the weekend and
into early in the next work week. Minimum relative humidity
values will be in the 45 to 65 percent range on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  70  92  70 /  80  50  40  20
Anniston    91  72  92  71 /  80  50  50  20
Birmingham  91  74  92  73 /  60  50  50  20
Tuscaloosa  91  74  93  74 /  40  50  50  10
Calera      92  75  92  74 /  60  50  50  20
Auburn      91  75  91  73 /  60  50  50  20
Montgomery  96  76  96  74 /  30  50  50  20
Troy        97  76  97  74 /  20  40  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Dallas-Elmore-
Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-
Russell-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1103 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-110715-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1103 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail, are
possible across Central Alabama. These storms are possible for areas
near and north of I-20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Central Alabama
on Thursday. Storms will pose a threat of damaging wind gusts.

Heat indices will approach 105 degrees across southern portions of
Central Alabama through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
overnight and Thursday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
926 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E St. Clair Springs   33.76N 86.35W
08/09/2023                   St. Clair          AL   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was blown down and landed on a home
            near Lake Drive.

&&

MAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
933 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Dallas            33.84N 86.69W
08/09/2023                   Blount             AL   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was blown down and blocking the
            roadway on Dorning Road near Trafford.

&&

MAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1001 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Hail             Hanover                 33.00N 86.20W
08/09/2023  E1.00 inch       Coosa              AL   Law Enforcement

            Quarter size hail near Hanover.

&&

MAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1131 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     Hail             Fayetteville            33.15N 86.40W
08/09/2023  E1.50 inch       Talladega          AL   Public

&&

GMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
142 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

ALZ011-012-100745-
Marion AL-Lamar AL-
142 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Marion and
northwestern Lamar Counties through 245 AM CDT...

At 141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Underwood-Petersville to 6
miles east of Pratts Friendship to near Pontotoc. Movement was
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Hackleburg, Detroit, Brinn, Weston, Bear Creek, Henson
Springs, Tessner, Shottsville, Rankin Fite Airport, Upper Bear Creek
Reservoir, Byrd, Bexar, Pigeye and Marion County Public Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8817 3430 8763 3427 8763 3399 8807
      3391 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 325DEG 33KT 3494 8781 3448 8848 3428 8907

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
221 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

ALZ011-014-015-100815-
Walker AL-Winston AL-Marion AL-
221 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Walker,
southeastern Marion and Winston Counties through 315 AM CDT...

At 220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Town Creek to 7 miles west of Weston. Movement
was southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Haleyville, Carbon Hill, Lynn, Arley, Double Springs,
Brilliant, Addison, Nauvoo, Curry, Houston Recreational Area, Camp
McDowell, Smith Dam, Nesmith, Ashbank, Brushy Lake, Poplar Springs,
Ashridge, Brinn and Falls City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3399 8711 3399 8715 3393 8709
      3379 8727 3409 8796 3431 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 293DEG 45KT 3469 8738 3415 8816

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

05