Severe Thunderstorm Warning 407, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
119 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2023

Late this evening, a few showers and storms were developing in
northwest Alabama and northeast Mississippi. This activity was
just ahead of a short wave moving west to east over Mississippi.
A cold front was located in southern Tennessee at this hour with
drier surface conditions north. In our southwest, the remnant
outflow/front/moisture axis still was evident although in a
weakened state. Expect an uptick in the convective coverage as low
level winds increase overnight with warm air advection in the low
levels. There remains a low chance that a storm may become severe
and will leave the mention in until 4 am or so. Bulk
Shear/instability and overall lift is much less than last night.
Also adjusted the pops slightly.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2023

Guidance trends are indicating yet another MCS may develop on
Friday a little farther south as the surface boundary slowly moves
southward. It's conditional, but depending on how long the
morning activity lingers another isolated severe storm chance
remains in the forecast especially across the southern half of
Central Alabama. For now, we've opted to hold off on a Heat
Advisory for Friday afternoon with so much uncertainty in relation
to clouds or rain that could be present. Stay tuned, as forecast
updates may abound based on what develops or what doesn't develop
over the next 24 hours.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2023

No major changes were made to the extended forecast. Isolated to
scattered mainly diurnal convection chances are expected. Elevated
heat indices that may require heat advisories when we get closer
for Sat through Mon for all of C AL. On Tuesday some drier air
should make its way into C AL with a frontal boundary. Thus, the
more humid air that could require a heat advisory should be more
confined to the SRN tier of counties depending on the success and
progression of the surface boundary. By Wed, slightly lower dew
points should alleviate the need for any heat advisories for any
part of C AL.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2023

We continue to be active on Friday as another round of showers and
storms will be moving through the area. Looks like the main
activity will be across the southern two-thirds of the area as a
frontal boundary tries to work back to the south, but will stall
out by the afternoon. Another heat advisory may be needed for
Friday, but will hold off issuing for now as there are some
discrepancies with temperatures and placement of the best rain. By
Saturday the front will likely lose its identity and wash out,
keeping the area warm and moist. Once the front washes out we will
be in the stale pattern that we have already been in with
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices at or above
105 degrees. This pattern looks to persist through Tuesday.
Included with this would be strong to severe storms each day, so
stay weather aware. That is when models are progging a cool front
to move through and provide the area with some drier air and
lower humidity for Tuesday and Wednesday with more of your typical
hit and miss afternoon showers and storms.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2023

VFR conditions generally dominate at this writing. Showers and
thunderstorms are slowly expanding in coverage and intensity. This
convection will be near the northern sites (VCSH) and will add
mention of thunder by 08-09z. Storms will move west to east
through around 12z with potential redevelopment along outflows.
Heating during the day will allow instability to reestablish
itself with additional storms possible by 16z or so north and
working south into the afternoon. Winds will predominantly remain
southwest to west 5-10kts but will be influenced in direction by
outflows. Future issuances and updates will be dependent upon
storm evolution through 12z.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain through
Friday, followed by isolated to scattered activity expected across
the area over the weekend and into early next week. Minimum relative
humidity values will be in the 50 to 65 percent range on Friday,
decreasing some each day as we go into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  70  92  71 /  50  20  20  10
Anniston    90  71  93  72 /  50  20  20  10
Birmingham  91  73  95  75 /  40  20  30  10
Tuscaloosa  94  74  95  75 /  50  20  30  10
Calera      92  73  95  75 /  50  20  20  10
Auburn      89  73  93  75 /  50  20  20  10
Montgomery  95  74  97  75 /  50  20  20  10
Troy        95  74  97  75 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...75

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