Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
237 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2023

Broad mid-level ridging is centered over Central Texas at midday
while a mesoscale convective system was over Central Tennessee.
Outflow boundaries from the convection in Tennessee are moving
south into our far northwest counties and is acting as a focus for
new shower and thunderstorm development at this writing.

A flood watch remains in effect for portions of our northeast
counties, roughly east of I-65 and north of I-20 through noon on
Friday. This area will potentially experience multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorm activity beginning this afternoon
followed by more activity overnight and again through midday on
Friday before the axis of most of the activity shifts further
southward with time. Locally heavy rainfall may result in ponding
of water and localized flooding in low-lying, poor drainage and
urban locations.

This afternoon.

Clouds will continue to increase over the northern half of the
area with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing through
the afternoon from the north to the central counties. This
activity will provide some heat relief but will also pose a risk
for damaging winds due to strong instability and favorable
downburst conditions with drier air aloft. Sufficient wind shear
will exist this afternoon and into the evening to support some
more organized convective activity as well. To the south, partly
cloudy skies will provide little relief from temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s with dew points slow to mix out into the mid 70s.
This will result in heat indices at or above 105 degrees for much
of our southern and western counties for much of the afternoon.
Winds will be from the west at 4-8 mph.

Tonight.

The mid-level ridge is progged to contract a bit further
overnight over Eastern Texas while a series of impulses aloft
continue to push southeast around the periphery of the ridging.
The result will be a persistent weakness over the northeastern
half of the forecast area. The flood watch remains out for these
additional rounds of showers and some thunderstorms overnight.
Areas further south and west will experience partly to mostly
cloudy skies with lower chances for a few showers or storms. Winds
will be from the southwest at 3-6 mph. Lows will range from near
70 northeast to the mid 70s south and west.

Friday.

The mid-level ridging is expected to become more elongated,
extending from over Louisiana west to over Southern Arizona. A
weakness aloft will persist over much of our area. This will allow
further impulses to penetrate further south over Central Alabama.

Look for clouds to increase further through the day Friday across
the central and southern counties with shower and thunderstorm
activity becoming more likely across the southern portion of the
area. Sufficient instability along with some residual dry air
aloft will again support some damaging wind potential with the
heavier activity. The flood watch is set to expire at midday to
account for the higher rain chances shifting southeast of the
northeast portion of our forecast area. Winds will become
northwest at 4-8 mph. Highs will range from the upper 80s
northeast to the mid 90s southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2023

No significant changes to the extended forecast. An active
northwest flow will continue through the period with above normal
rain chances. Confidence is low for timing of individual impulses.
Above normal temperatures and high humidity will continue to be
elevated over the weekend with heat indices 105-110.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2023

Mid-level ridging to our west will allow for a few disturbances
to push southeast over the Tennessee Valley Region through this
period. The result will be increasing clouds from the north with
chances for showers and some storms increasing through the
afternoon. Most of the activity will affect the eastern portion of
the northern sites through late afternoon then affecting
BHM/EET/TCL into the evening. Expect this activity to persist
overnight across most of the northern sites, followed by activity
shifting further south to include the southern terminals into
Friday morning.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A band of thunderstorms will track southward this afternoon and evening
across Central Alabama. The storms will produce wind gusts of 30-40
mph, with locally higher gusts. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will continue overnight and into Friday. Min RH values on
Friday will be 55-65 percent. Outside thunderstorms, 20 ft winds
will be light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  89  69  91 /  60  60  20  20
Anniston    71  88  71  92 /  60  60  20  20
Birmingham  72  90  73  93 /  60  60  30  40
Tuscaloosa  73  93  74  93 /  50  60  30  50
Calera      72  90  74  92 /  60  60  30  40
Auburn      72  87  73  90 /  50  60  40  40
Montgomery  74  93  74  94 /  40  60  40  40
Troy        75  94  74  94 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa-Elmore-
Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pickens-
Pike-Russell-Shelby-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for the following counties:
Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-St. Clair-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for the following counties:
Dallas-Greene-Hale-Marengo-Perry-Sumter.

&&

SHORT TERM...58/rose
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
422 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-041230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
422 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible between 12 PM and 9 PM today
across much of Central Alabama, with the relatively highest chances
across far northern and northeastern portions. Damaging winds up to
60 mph will be possible.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms this afternoon through the
overnight hours may cause isolated flash flooding, especially across
northeastern portions of Central Alabama.

Heat indices will range from 105 to 109 degrees across the western
half of Central Alabama today ahead of any thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated flash flooding will be possible on Friday, especially in
northeastern portions of Central Alabama during the morning hours.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday between 10 AM and 7 PM,
mainly across the southwestern half of Central Alabama. Damaging
winds up to 60 mph will be possible.

Heat indices will range from 105 to 109 degrees across southwestern
portions of Central Alabama Friday afternoon ahead of any
thunderstorms.

Heat indices will reach or exceed 105 degrees at times across much
of Central Alabama Saturday through Monday. At this time, the
highest heat indices are forecast Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon and tonight and again on Friday.

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