Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023

The forecast area is positioned between a highly amplified ridge
aloft over the Southern Plains northward to over Southern Canada
while an upper low spins over Pennsylvania with a deep trough over
much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic Coast. Toward the
surface, the forecast area is between a stationary front along
the Central Gulf Coast and a cold front that extends from Eastern
Nebraska eastward into Western Pennsylvania.

This afternoon.

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the area as a few more
disturbances ripple southeast over the area. A cold front will
remain to the north of the area while a nearly stationary boundary
will be positioned to the south of the area.

Cumulus clouds will continue to develop through the afternoon
across the west with some shower and storm activity expected
toward late afternoon coinciding with peak low-level instability.
A few storms may be strong to locally severe with strong winds and
some hail. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph. Highs
will range from the mid 80s east to near 90 west.

Tonight.

A few more disturbances in the mid levels will move southeast
over the area tonight while a cold front advances south across the
Tennessee Valley while a nearly stationary boundary remains just
to our south.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will persist across portions of
the west and south, though decreasing gradually through time
overnight. Some patchy fog is expected again with better potential
across portions of the north and the east. A few of the storms
may be strong with gusty winds and some hail. Winds will be from
the south at 2-4 mph. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday.

Mid-level ridging will move east over much of the Mississippi
River Valley Region while a northwest flow prevails over the area
as broad troughing persist just to our east. Additional mid-level
disturbances will move southeast over the area. A surface cold
front will move south into the northern counties through the
morning hours while the surface boundary to our south slowly lifts
north into our southern counties later in the day.

The combination of surface boundaries with mid-level support will
result in scattered shower and thunderstorm development through
the day Saturday with the best chances across the southern and
central counties due to some drier air moving into the far
northern counties later in the day. Some storms may be strong to
severe with strong winds and hail. Winds will shift from the south
to the west later in the day with speeds from 5-10 mph. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 80s across the area.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023

Sunday will bring another severe threat to Central Alabama as a
shortwave trough moves into the area from the Plains. The current
thinking is for an afternoon to evening threat for severe storms,
mainly across the whole area but focused over the western and
southwestern counties. This looks to be yet another damaging wind
and hail threat coming to areas that have dealt with this for the
better part of the last week.

By Monday, an upper level low will sink down into the region from
the central Mississippi River Valley and will probably hangout into
late week. With this setup, rain and storm chances remain elevated
through the extended. Daytime highs may be tempered somewhat,
remaining in the low to mid 80s during the week.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023

On Sunday, clusters of storms are expected to occur toward our
northwest, supported by a 500mb trough and broad low-level
confluence within an unstable air mass. These storms should
propagate toward our region based on the path of the shortwave and
placement of the instability/shear axis. Ensemble means are
showing the bulk of rain and storms affecting Central Alabama a
tad later into Sunday than before, favoring sometime late Sunday
afternoon into (perhaps more-so) Sunday night/early Monday morning
as a few storm clusters move across the region. Flow is decent
with 30-40 knots of bulk shear with sufficient MUCAPE to yield a
severe threat. Heavy rainfall could also occur and pose an
isolated flood risk. This part of the forecast still carries some
complexities that high-res guidance may help to resolve once
within range but, based on the overall setup, we'll continue a
slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms Sunday/Sunday
night.

An upper low looks to meander about the region through the rest of
the extended forecast/through Thursday, producing spells of
showers and storms. While there will probably be nighttime
activity, peak coverage should occur with afternoon and evening
destabilization.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2023

Except generally VFR conditions through the afternoon with the
exception in vicinity for shower and thunderstorm activity that
will develop later in the afternoon with best chances west and
southwest. The activity will decrease through the overnight but
may linger across the southern portion of the area. Patchy fog is
again expected towards daybreak Saturday with best potential
across portions of the north and east. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase again during the day Saturday with bet
potential across the south and southeast.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms are forecast each day through the period, with
varying daily coverage. Minimum RH values each afternoon will remain
above critical thresholds, generally staying above 45-50 percent.
20ft winds should be generally less than 10kts from the west this
evening, northwest tomorrow, and southwest on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  88  62  90 /  30  30  10  40
Anniston    66  87  64  89 /  30  40  10  40
Birmingham  68  87  66  89 /  40  40  10  40
Tuscaloosa  67  86  66  87 /  60  50  20  60
Calera      66  85  66  88 /  50  50  20  40
Auburn      67  85  66  87 /  40  50  20  40
Montgomery  68  85  67  89 /  60  50  20  40
Troy        67  87  67  89 /  60  60  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
442 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-171245-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
442 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening for much of
Central Alabama. Threats include damaging winds up to 60 mph and
large hail. Locally heavy rainfall could produce flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A couple severe storms may occur Saturday afternoon across the
southern portion of Central Alabama. Threats include damaging winds
up to 60 mph and large hail.

Severe storms are possible sometime Sunday or Sunday night for much
of Central Alabama. Threats include damaging winds up to 60 mph and
large hail. Locally heavy rainfall could produce flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is needed
through Sunday.

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