Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
257 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2023

Severe weather and flooding issues remain likely this afternoon and
evening and into tomorrow. Storms are currently ongoing across
Central Alabama this afternoon, with a lower-end tornado threat
across southern parts of the area and a more significant damaging
wind and hail threat across the entire area. Storms are currently
approaching northwestern counties from Mississippi and northwest
Alabama, and hail and wind damage have already been reported
across the area. A boundary is currently oriented roughly
northwest to southeast across the area, with higher severe chances
further south into the region. Temperatures and dewpts are
surging over southwest Alabama, with dewpts into the upper 70s.
Mesoanalysis currently depicts CAPE of >4,500 J/kg across the area
and 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH across the southwestern counties. A
storm currently in Noxubee County, Mississippi is currently moving
southeastward into this area and is showing signs of
intensifying. A Tornado Watch is in effect for Central Alabama
until 5 PM.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will remain heightened through
tomorrow/Thursday with more waves of strong to potentially severe
storms moving through overnight and in the early morning hours. For
these waves, the main severe threat looks to remain along and south
of the boundary, mainly the southern counties.

The heavy rain/flooding chances remain somewhat high over the
period, with numerous rounds of heavy rainfall moving over already
saturated areas. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday
evening.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2023

We will remain in a active and unsettled weather pattern through
the long term portion of the forecast. Daily thunderstorm chances
will remain at or above seasonal normals, with several periods of
greater than 50 percent coverage (especially during the afternoon
and evening hours). This will also lead to temperatures at or
below climo norms through the period. No major changes in the long
term forecast.

/61/

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2023

An active northwest flow pattern will continue through the weekend.
Timing of the upper impulses will be critical for probability of
rain chances each day and night. Model consensus is for a cluster
of storms to impact west Alabama Friday afternoon and evening, and
along with it marginal risk of severe storms. The Storm Prediction
Center currently has the Slight Risk upstream of Alabama on Friday,
but would not be surprised in later outlooks to see the slight risk
expanded into west Alabama. There may be a relative lull in convection
late Friday night through Saturday, with another upstream impulse
late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. There is a change on
the upper level pattern early next week as a cut-off low develops
over the Ohio Valley region and tracks southeast towards the Southeast
States. If this occurs, it will bring an end to the more robust
upstream convective complexes, but rain chances will remain above
normal due to the close proximity of the upper low to Alabama.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2023

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will pass through during
the period. One rounds is currently ongoing across the area and is
expected to clear to the southeast by 0z. Other rounds are expected
overnight and into tomorrow. Cigs are currently VFR, occasionally
MVFR, but should fall to MVFR at northern and central stations
overnight. Cigs could fall to IFR by early morning before slowly
improving back to MVFR by midday. TOI and MGM should fall to MVFR
cigs by roughly 11z and improve by midday.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall will continue through Thursday. Minimum RH values will
remain well above critical thresholds the next few days. Rainfall
totals through Friday could reach 1-2 inches north of I-20 and 2-4
inches south of I-20. 20-foot winds will be light and variable
this morning becoming southwest 5-7 mph this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  84  63  87 /  50  70  20  30
Anniston    64  83  66  87 /  70  70  20  40
Birmingham  65  83  67  87 /  70  70  20  40
Tuscaloosa  66  84  68  87 /  80  70  30  50
Calera      65  83  68  87 /  80  80  30  50
Auburn      64  81  67  85 /  80  80  40  50
Montgomery  67  84  68  87 /  80  80  50  60
Troy        68  86  68  87 /  80  80  50  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
320 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-151130-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
320 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely across all of Central Alabama
through tonight, with multiple rounds of storms currently expected.
The primary threats are large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a
tornado.

Flash flooding is also possible through tonight, mainly for areas
along and south of Interstate 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across southern portions of Central
Alabama on Thursday, and for western portions of Central Alabama on
Friday. The primary threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts.

With several periods of showers and thunderstorms forecast, flash
flooding impacts could continue through Thursday evening,

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
through Friday.

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