Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1213 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND, AND FLOODING...
Issued at 1058 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

The second round of severe thunderstorm development is entering
far western areas near the Mississippi state line. A Tornado
Watch remains in effect until 4 am for the western two thirds of
the area while a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until noon
for the southern two thirds of the area.

The latest RAP analysis has SBCAPE values around 1000j/kg from
I-20 southward and this area of surface based instability will
slowly move west to east overnight. Mid level lapse rates are not
overly high and will tend to decrease from north to south
overnight. CAPE in the -10 to -30 C would be supportive of some
marginally severe hail and Bulk Shear values near 50kts. SRH
values are in the 250-300 range and mainly in the lowest levels.
Therefore, we will see a continued threat of tornadoes, damaging
winds, and hail much of the overnight hours. How far east these
storms hold together and how the instability evolves will
determine if a watch extension becomes necessary.

Much of the area will experience rises in Precipitable Water
values overnight, and above 1.6 inches. Large southerly transport
vectors will keep the moisture moving northward ahead of the
developing line. Many areas will receive another 1+ inches of rain
overnight. This will keep a threat of flooding especially for
areas that already received heavy rain the past 12 hours.

75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 AM CST WED JAN 4 2023

Round 2 of showers and thunderstorms will be moving across C AL
over the next few hours along an approaching cold front. The front
should be through C AL by midday sweeping the rain chances out
with it. Winds will be gusty today outside of and in storms with
tight pressure gradients. However, gradient winds/gusts should
remain below wind advisory criteria. Conditions will improve for
tonight generally, but some cloud cover will be noted tonight as
the upper low moves across the N Central US with the trough
bringing some mid/upper moisture over the S US. Temps/dew points
will drop behind the front with lows tonight expected some 10-18
degrees lower than this morning. Highs for Thu will be ~ 8-10
degrees lower than today.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

No significant changes in model trends in the extended this
afternoon. Conditions dry out for the second half of the work
week, and trended temps upward slightly. A weakening front brings
rain chances back to the area Saturday night and Sunday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

By sunset Wednesday, the activity will be east of the area and we
begin to dry out. Temperatures will continue to fall through mid
morning on Thursday, before warming up a touch by the afternoon
with the increase in sunshine.

Dry weather is expected through Saturday morning, with temperatures
pretty much in the 50s on Friday and 50 to low 60s on Saturday. The
next system will begin to edge toward the area for the weekend. This
run of model solutions is a touch faster and now begins showers in
the far northwest on Saturday afternoon with the front slowly
passing into the area and then stalling out or washing out by
Monday. Look for solutions to continue to vary over the next several
days, but generally look for an increase in shower activity for the
second half of the weekend and into the first of next week with
closer to normal temperatures through the extended period.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CST WED JAN 4 2023

A second round of showers and thunderstorms will move EWD across
C AL now through the pre-dawn and exiting the SE during the mid
morning hours. MVFR-IFR cigs will be noted with the storms along
with some reduced vsbys with the heavier rain. Gusty winds will be
possible outside of and with TSRA. Conditions should go VFR
starting at 11-12z W to 18z near the GA line.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A second round of wetting rains is expected overnight tonight
through Wednesday morning. Drier air moves in on Thursday and
remains through Saturday morning. Minimum RH values fall into the
38-48 percent range both Thursday and Friday afternoons. 20ft
winds will be from the west at 6-12mph through Thursday, before
winds diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  68  41  58 /  90  50   0   0
Anniston    62  70  43  61 / 100  80   0   0
Birmingham  60  68  45  59 /  90  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa  58  69  45  61 / 100  10   0   0
Calera      60  69  45  61 /  90  30   0   0
Auburn      63  71  46  62 /  90  80   0   0
Montgomery  64  73  45  64 /  90  80   0   0
Troy        66  74  48  64 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM CST Wednesday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

MESOSCALE...75
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14/16
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
416 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-041330-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
416 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across Central Alabama
today through tomorrow morning. Primary threats include damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible south of
Interstate 20 this afternoon through tomorrow morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Severe weather and flash flooding potential is expected through
Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and Emergency Management will be
needed through tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 AM CST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE MEADOWBROOK        33.40N 86.69W
01/04/2023                   SHELBY             AL   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ACROSS ROAD ON CAHABA VALLEY RD.
            NEAR BRIARWOOD CHRISTIAN SCHOOL. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 AM CST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ODENVILLE               33.68N 86.40W
01/04/2023                   ST. CLAIR          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD COMPLETELY FLOODED AT OLD SPRINGVILLE
            ROAD AND HWY 411. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
122 AM CST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 AM     TSTM WND GST     BIRMINGHAM INTERNATIONA 33.57N 86.75W
01/04/2023  M46 MPH          JEFFERSON          AL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KBHM BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT (KBHM).

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
136 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023

ALZ025-027-028-035-036-040815-
Chilton AL-Clay AL-Shelby AL-Talladega AL-Coosa AL-
136 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Chilton, southwestern Talladega, southeastern Shelby, northern Coosa
and southwestern Clay Counties through 215 AM CST...

At 136 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Talladega Springs, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Talladega, Sylacauga, Childersburg, Columbiana, Jemison, Wilsonville,
Goodwater, Talladega Springs, Weogufka, Stewartville, Harpersville,
Oak Grove, Waldo, Bon Air, Winterboro, Strickland Crossroads, Marble
Valley, Fayetteville, Alpine and Unity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for central and
east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8674 3322 8663 3347 8613 3336 8597
      3304 8602
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 245DEG 44KT 3313 8652

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore