Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2023

Airmass over the area remains dry this morning, with PWs around
0.50 inch and substantial dry layer at 700mb. A weak and moisture
starved front will approach the area today, moving into north
Central Alabama tonight. Some increase in mid level moisture is
expected, reflected in scattered to broken cloud decks this
afternoon and evening. Low level winds will turn to the west
southwest, with weak warm advection occurring ahead of the front.
Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the upper 70s to mid
80s, with good mixing conditions this afternoon as winds increased
to 7-12mph.

Warmer conditions expected tonight with the front moving through
the area. No rain is expected but increased cloud cover will help
keep temperatures in the 50s. Clouds hang around on Sunday, with
weak cool advection behind the front. Highs will be in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2023

Dry weather is expected to continue through the upcoming week. High
pressure builds in as the trough from this weekend moves well to our
east. This will lead to highs in the 70s to low 80s each day and
lows in the upper 40s to 50s. A shortwave trough is expected to
slide just to our north and west on Thursday, but the frontal
boundary associated with the trough doesn't appear to reach Central
AL. With that said, it could come close enough to lead to some low
rain chances in the far northwestern counties on Friday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2023

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will
increase from the southwest Saturday morning, with gusts of
18-20kts possible through the afternoon. Winds diminish through
the evening hours.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The combination of dry air and breezy winds today will result in
critical thresholds met across portions of the area, with a Red
Flag warning issued for locations in north Alabama. A period of
rain free weather continues through much of next week.

A dry airmass and afternoon mixing will allow RH values to fall
into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon. West to southwest
20ft winds will increase to 7-12mph, with surface wind gusts of
20mph possible. Winds will be the strongest across the north, and
a Red Flag Warning is valid from Noon through 7pm today generally
along and north of a line from Heflin to Vernon.

Moisture increases slightly Sunday, with minimum afternoon RH
values in the 28 to 35 percent range. Lighter wind are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     79  52  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    79  54  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  82  58  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  85  57  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      81  57  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      77  58  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  82  58  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        81  57  83  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-
Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...14