Freeze Warning 8, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON OCT 30 2023

Big changes in store for Alabama today as a strong cold front
pushes  through the area. The front has already entered northwest
Alabama and will be near the I-59 corridor by sunrise. Behind the
front, northwest winds at 10-15 mph will usher in much cooler
air, with temperatures falling into the 50s for areas north of
I-59 by mid afternoon. Temperatures will warm quickly south of the
cold front, with readings climbing into 70s and lower 80s along
and southeast of the I-85 corridor. Rain will also spread across
north Alabama later this morning and into the afternoon, but
amounts will be light, generally less than one-tenth of an inch.
Clouds will increase throughout the day, and linger during the
overnight hours. Skies should clear from northwest to southeast on
Tuesday as much drier low level air spreads southeast.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to lower 50s
southeast. North winds around 10 mph will make it feel much
colder. Even with the return of sunshine on Tuesday, highs will
only be in the middle to upper 50s for areas north of I-85, with
lower 60s south the interstate.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON OCT 30 2023

A potent upper-level shortwave will swing across the eastern CONUS
Tuesday night, bringing a reinforcing wave of cold advection to
the Deep South. Temperatures will plunge into the 29 to 36 degree
range Wednesday morning with a stiff breeze of 10-20 mph.
Accordingly, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the northern half
of the forecast area. High pressure centered nearby on Wednesday
night will promote radiational cooling, with temperatures ranging
from the upper 20s to lower 30s areawide. Light to calm winds
should allow for widespread frost development.

As 500 mb flow becomes westerly for Thursday afternoon through
Sunday, cold advection will cease as the surface to 850 mb ridge
moves to our east. Broad southwesterly low-level flow will develop
across the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, resulting in a
significant warming trend that will be felt through the upcoming
weekend.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT MON OCT 30 2023

An arctic front is moving southeast across the forecast area with
winds shifting from the northwest ahead of the boundary with
speeds from 7-14 kts at times. Low clouds will continue to push
southeast, covering all the terminal locations by this evening.
Some light to moderate showers are pushing east over our northwest
counties will will persist through the rest of the afternoon
across the northern third of the area. Low clouds will persist
overnight and into at least early Tuesday before gradually
decreasing and lifting from northwest to southeast through the
day. A few showers will remain possible overnight to the end of
this cycle across the southeast portion of the area. Winds will
remain from the north overnight around 10 kts followed by more
breezy conditions Tuesday with northwest winds from 7-14 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values will be higher today as a front moves into the region
with 20 foot winds shifting to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph
with some higher gusts. Little to no measurable rainfall is
expected with this system. RH values are expected drop into the
20-25 percent range Tuesday afternoon across much of the area
except for the southeastern counties. This will combine with
winds of 10 to 20 mph. Similar conditions are expected to be more
widespread on Wednesday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Tuesday afternoon for much of the area and all of the area on
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     41  58  29  53 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    45  59  30  54 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  42  56  31  54 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  42  59  32  56 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      43  58  32  55 /  20   0   0   0
Auburn      50  61  32  54 /  10  20   0   0
Montgomery  49  61  33  58 /  20  20   0   0
Troy        50  62  33  57 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-
Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-
Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-
Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-
Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-
Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker.

Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Sumter-
Tallapoosa.

&&

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
437 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-311245-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
437 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Cold air will move into the region on Tuesday night, and a brief
freeze is possible early Wednesday morning across the northern
counties. A more widespread frost and freeze is expected Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

The combination of low relative humidity values and windy conditions
will lead to an elevated risk of wildfires Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.