Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Birmingham, AL

806 
WGUS74 KBMX 150004
FFSBMX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
704 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ALC119-150014-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-230715T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sumter AL-
704 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3266 8838 3254 8824 3244 8815 3239 8809
      3231 8804 3231 8842

$$

25/Owen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2023

It's a very hot, humid afternoon across the area with current
temperature readings approaching 90 in some areas amidst dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s. Heat will continue to be a concern across
warmer spots in the west where a Heat Advisory is in effect.
However, scattered storms are beginning to develop west of I-65 and
a more organized cluster of thunderstorms, located southeast of
Memphis, is on track to reach our northwestern counties by roughly 2-
3 PM. As storms continue to develop this afternoon, the associated
cloud cover and cool outflow will bring temperatures down a touch,
but on the other hand, we will be keeping an eye out for any
stronger storm development. Instability is in abundance due to the
warm dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/Km, especially
across the west in the moisture-rich environment where activity is
already developing. Eff. shear is still not particularly strong
today, but intense thunderstorms with frequent lightning may still
be capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. Heavy
downpours may also contribute to localized flooding. Thankfully,
most of the activity is moving today, although slowly, but we will
be watching some of the saturated areas across our southwest where
it won't take much rainfall to cause flooding issues.

The cluster of storms will propagate southeastward through the
area late this afternoon and into the evening hours, losing
intensity with the loss of daytime heating. Highest PoPs are
generally focused along and west of I-65. Some isolated showers
will linger overnight, but most of the area should be rain-free
with with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Moist, west-northwesterly flow and a shortwave trough ejecting from
the Central Plains towards the Ohio Valley will contribute to more
thunderstorm redevelopment tomorrow, potentially beginning tomorrow
morning across the north as the trough axis passes over the Lower MS
River Valley and towards the Tennessee Valley. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected across the area by tomorrow afternoon.
This could keep areas across the north in the mid to upper 80s for
highs depending on how early the rain begins. Some drier mid-level
air will begin to move in from the west late in the afternoon
which should shift the focus of higher PoPs to areas east of I-65.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2023

No changes to the extended needed this afternoon and the previous
discussion below remains valid. Will likely need a heat advisory
Sunday for a portion of the area, most likely across the south.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2023

An upper low over Canada is progged to dig southeastward over the
Great Lakes region by Sunday and Monday. Combined with a strong
ridge over the Desert Southwest, this will continue the pattern of
northwest flow into the early week. PoPs remain somewhat elevated
Sunday and Monday before dropping off dramatically from Tuesday
through Thursday as the ridge over the Southwest expands eastward.

In addition to much lower rain chances, dewpts will also be a touch
lower with a drier airmass working in midweek. This starts Monday,
which is forecast to have heat indices of *only* 95-100F owing to
slightly lower dewpts. Afternoon highs are likely to reach the mid
to even upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday, so Heat Advisory
criteria is likely to be met with heat indices of over 105F. This is
especially likely in the western and southern counties.

Afternoon showers and storms hint at returning by the end of the
week as the ridge begins to break down and retreat westward,
although that will bear watching over the next several days.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2023

Scattered to numerous TSRA expected again this afternoon, especially
near TCL as a cluster of storms moves from northern Mississippi into
northwestern portions of Central AL. Greatest chance for aviation
impacts will evolve from the 21-00Z timeframe, but coverage should
begin to decrease after 01Z. TEMPOs are in place at most sites and
will be adjusted as needed. MVFR ceilings may redevelop early
tomorrow morning, but will gradually improve late in this TAF
period. May see some storms develop late tomorrow morning at the
northern TAF sites as another trough axis begins to move towards the
Tennessee Valley.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions continue through the next few days, with
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected each day through
Monday. RH values remain above 50 percent through the weekend,
before dropping into the 40 to 50 percent range Monday afternoon.
Generally light westerly to southwesterly 20ft winds will persist
through the next several days, up to 6-8 mph at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  90  70  90 /  20  70  40  30
Anniston    73  89  72  90 /  20  60  40  40
Birmingham  74  92  73  91 /  20  60  40  30
Tuscaloosa  75  92  75  92 /  20  50  30  40
Calera      74  91  74  91 /  20  50  30  40
Auburn      73  89  73  90 /  20  60  30  50
Montgomery  74  93  75  93 /  30  60  30  50
Troy        73  92  74  92 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-
Walker.

&&

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...86

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
325 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-151130-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
325 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible from 2 PM to 8 PM
for the western two-thirds of central Alabama. Damaging winds and
localized flooding are the main concerns.

Heat index values as high as 106 will be possible across the
southwest this afternoon.

Minor flooding will continue along the Sucarnoochee River at
Livingston.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor flooding will continue along the Sucarnoochee River at
Livingston through early next week.

The combination of increasing temperatures and high humidity could
produce afternoon heat indices near 105 Saturday and Sunday, and
again on Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
215 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ALZ039-141945-
Marengo AL-
215 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Marengo
County through 245 PM CDT...

At 215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Linden, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Linden, Jefferson, Sweet Water, Myrtlewood, Putnam, Freddie Jones
Field, Pin Hook, Nanafalia, Wayne, Surginer, Miller, Chickasaw State
Park, Dixons Mill, Half Acre, Octagon, Clayhill, Nicholsville and
Calvary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 8807 3208 8804 3211 8805 3214 8804
      3215 8802 3218 8801 3228 8802 3231 8798
      3230 8797 3231 8795 3228 8794 3229 8793
      3231 8793 3235 8800 3239 8802 3240 8782
      3231 8765 3199 8772 3199 8808
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 315DEG 21KT 3229 8784

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

61

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
229 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ALZ011>013-142000-
Fayette AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
229 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Marion,
northwestern Fayette and northern Lamar Counties through 300 PM
CDT...

At 229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Brinn to Beaverton. Movement was southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Winfield, Fayette, Sulligent, Guin, Brilliant, Glen Allen,
Beaverton, Gu-
Win, Bluff, Blooming Grove, Lamar County Airport, Brinn, Lake
Buttahatchee, Crews, Twin, Tucker, Wayside, Pine Springs and Marion
County Public Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8782 3417 8764 3389 8764 3369 8786
      3388 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 311DEG 15KT 3417 8783 3393 8805

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

61

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
256 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ALZ011>013-142030-
Fayette AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
256 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Marion,
western Fayette and southeastern Lamar Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lake Buttahatchee to 6 miles southeast of
Vernon. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winfield, Fayette, Guin, Brilliant, Glen Allen, Kennedy, Belk, Gu-
Win, Blooming Grove, Lake Buttahatchee, Bluff, Crossville, Twin,
Tucker, Cody, Bazemore, Wayside, Richard Arthur Field, Bevill State
College Fayette and Hubbertville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 8773 3410 8764 3388 8764 3356 8787
      3356 8795 3371 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 310DEG 16KT 3408 8771 3370 8803

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

61

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
321 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ALZ014-142045-
Winston AL-
321 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Winston
County through 345 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ashridge, or 7 miles southeast of Haleyville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lynn, Double Springs, Houston Recreational Area, Ashbank, Winston
Free State Barn, Ashridge, Poplar Springs, Smith Lake, Natural
Bridge, Weiss, Clear Creek, Pebble, Delmar, Sipsey River Rec Area and
Grayson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8730 3400 8740 3400 8764 3430 8758
      3431 8755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 254DEG 17KT 3418 8751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

61

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
323 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ALZ030-142100-
Sumter AL-
323 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Sumter
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
York, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, York, Cuba, Boyd, Kinterbish, The University Of West
Alabama, Old Mallard Airport, Bellamy, I 20 Welcome Center At Cuba,
Ward, Payneville and Lilita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3270 8837 3256 8808 3231 8819 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 302DEG 20KT 3254 8839

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

61

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ALZ014-015-142115-
Walker AL-Winston AL-
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Walker
and eastern Winston Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 343 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Addison to Poplar Springs. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Arley, Double Springs, Addison, Nauvoo, Curry, Camp McDowell,
Nesmith, Ashbank, Poplar Springs, Falls City, Smith Lake, Helicon,
Inmanfield, Sardis, Corinth Rec Area, Houston, Mill Branch, Clear
Creek and Winston County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 8711 3399 8711 3399 8715 3397 8714
      3396 8712 3383 8729 3400 8756 3428 8721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 299DEG 24KT 3419 8717 3402 8741

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

61