Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
240 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The front will linger
into the weekend with additional rounds of showers and storms
expected. Locally heavy rainfall may occur at times.
Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

A slow moving upper-level trough will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region throughout this period. Temperatures
also begin to trend cooler to finish out the work week.

Some storms have developed ahead of the main line with these
storms first developing in the Wyoming Valley and extending into
Sullivan County. Prior to this, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was
issued for the majority of the county. Instability has increased
with CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Shear remains weak
though, so most of these storms have been quick to pop up but
also fairly quick to weaken. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible with damaging wind gusts being the
main threat. Large hail may also be possible with. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible as PWATs will be between 1.7 and
2.0 inches.

Activity will wind down late this evening, especially as
instability decreases. There will be a break during the
overnight hours. This will lead to some clearing of clouds and
light winds. With the added moisture from the rain showers
today, patchy fog will likely develop, especially in the river
valleys. Temperatures tonight will remain mild, only falling
into the 60s.

The fog will clear out after sunrise Friday morning. The
aforementioned trough will remain over the region, kicking off
additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Models are
favoring the greatest instability and moisture along the coast,
though that could easily spread into our region as well. The
best forcing also looks to extend through NEPA and into the
eastern portions of the Southern Tier. This seems to match SPC's
thinking as well, as there is a Slight Risk between the Southern
Tier and coastline with a sliver of Marginal extended a little
bit further northwest. Similar to today, the main hazards will
be strong gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue overnight, though the severe threat
should be lower given less heating. Temperatures Friday will
only max out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The overnight lows
will once again be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A very broad and misshapened trough pattern over the Mid-
Atlantic states supplies deep southerly flow to advect moisture
into our area this weekend. For now, chances for precipitation
lasts through majority of the weekend and into Monday, with
slight chances for afternoon, non-severe thunderstorms. As a
more pronounced trough forms west over the Great Lakes and
begins moving eastward, we'll start to see a cooling trend
through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The developing trough mentioned in the short-term section of
this discussion will propagate eastward from its original
development from over the Great Lakes and over our regions.
Chances for rain showers will last through the majority of the
week, and the aforementioned cooling trend will continue. We'll
really start to see the climatological transitions from summer
to autumn this week with mostly cloudy skies, scattered rain
showers, and the cooling temperature trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the evening hours, but there
is also a chance for scattered thunderstorms which could bring
restrictions if passing over a terminals. The showers and
thunderstorms comes to an end late this evening, shortly after
00z. Then conditions will be favorable for patchy fog at all
terminals. LIFR conditions will be possible at some NY
terminals. Friday morning, VFR conditions return after the fog
clears out.

Outlook...

Friday through Tuesday...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected each day...primarily during the favored afternoon
conditions. Restrictions within and outside of thunderstorms is
likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ044-047.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BTL

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