Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
414 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms will
continue this afternoon and tonight. Some of the storms could
be severe with large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning
and heavy rainfall. Expect cooler temperatures along with
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Wednesday will be dry with more sunshine and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
355 PM update...

A tornado watch was just issued for NEPA and parts of south
central NY until 11 PM. Tornado warning issued for Bradford
County now. Stronger storms are to the SW of BGM where the
better instability and shear are ahead of a strong short wave.
Instability drops from the Catskills east where low clouds have
kept it cooler. Oneonta is 72 while most of the area has
temperatures from the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints are around
70. Soundings are showing very good low level turning of the
winds with some speed increase. Low pressure is moving slowly
east across SE Ontario. This is rotating a cold front across
the area. Low pressure will form along it in southern PA and
move east. The front will end our threat of severe weather from
west to east this evening.

Flash flooding is also possible anywhere but the certainty isn't
high on any given area. Earlier showers and thunderstorms
dropped more than an inch of rain in a few stripes. Areas that
get multiple thunderstorms will have the best chance. The
forward speed of the thunderstorms is good so one thunderstorm
probably won't do it on its own. precipitable water is around
1.7 to 1.8 inches. The inflow will replace the moisture being
rained out. A few locations could get 2 to 3 inches from last
midnight to midnight tonight.

Late tonight low clouds and sprinkles/drizzle will be common.
Clearing will be slow especially across the Catskills, Poconos
and Mohawk Valley regions. Lows will be in the 60s.

On Tuesday breaks in the clouds will cause instability as the
upper level trough moves through. Showers will be more
widespread over CNY with more cool air aloft.Temperatures only
get into the lower 70s.

Tuesday night showers move out from southwest to northeast then
skies start to clear. Lows will be from the mid 50s to around
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Forecast...

Weak ridging will bring pleasant conditions to the area on
Wednesday. WNW flow will advect in a cooler airmass from
southern Canada and the Great Lakes. While this airmass is not a
Canadian airmass, it will be modified enough to bring cooler
temperatures to the region Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be
in the mid 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows falling into the
mid 50s to low 60s. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 50s to low
60s so the air will not be too crisp.

Thursday will see a return of rain showers and thunderstorms as a
broad upper level trough moves into the region. The trough looks to
be positively tilted, generating two areas of low pressure. One
should move across southern Ontario, while the other will move over
the Mid-Atlantic. Vorticity advection at 700mb and 500mb highlights
these areas as well. The CWA will be sandwiched between these
features, allowing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop during the late morning through early evening hours on
Thursday. Frontal passage timing is still a little unsure, with
current model runs leaning toward a late morning passage, which
would limit thunderstorm activity. A later passage will allow for
better thunderstorm chances so this will have to be monitored. Highs
on Thursday will reach the mid 70s to low 80s.

Rain showers should linger into Thursday night, especially east of I-
81. Overnight lows will fall to the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM Forecast...

Another ridge is expected to build into the area behind the
exiting trough, bringing dry and cool conditions across the
region. Highs Friday will be in the mid to upper 70s across most
of the area, with a few 80s in the warmer river valleys.

The pattern looks to remain active through the weekend. Guidance is
starting to come into better agreement on a shortwave trough pushing
through the area Saturday and Sunday. The finer details on timing
and location of showers and storms are still murky, so PoPs were
limited to chance and mostly followed NBM guidance. Given the broad
nature of the trough, chance PoPs are present for the entire CWA
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Lingering wrap around showers could impact the region Sunday, but
the extent of the showers will depend on the track of the low. High
pressure will follow the trough, bringing pleasant conditions for
the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM Update

Convection has started and will continue into the evening, then
showers into the overnight.

This afternoon and evening mostly VFR except for restrictions in
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Vsbys could drop to IFR and cigs
to MVFR. Between 1 and 3Z vsbys and cigs will drop to MVFR. The
strongest thunderstorms will have gusts over 30 kts and hail.

Late tonight into Tuesday morning ceilings could drop to IFR
with the most confidence in BGM ITH ELM.

Southeast to south winds at 5 to 10 kts with some higher gusts
into early evening. late evening winds will be southeast at 4 to
8 kts then west late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon...Showers and thunderstorms likely. CIGs
likely hovering MVFR/MVFR Fuel ALternate. Occasional VSBY
restrictions possible too.

Wednesday...VFR with dry weather expected.

Thursday...mainly VFR...chance of showers/thunderstorms
afternoon and at night.

Friday...Likely will be in-between systems and there is a higher
chance for VFR conditions through this period.

Saturday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...BJG/JTC
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
600 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

NYZ009-036-037-082200-
Northern Oneida-Madison-Southern Oneida-
600 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 605 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. These thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce damaging winds and localized
tornadoes. Heavy rain could cause localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ015>018-022>025-044-082200-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-
Tompkins-Cortland-
600 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. These
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce damaging winds and
localized tornadoes. Heavy rain could cause localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-082200-
Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
600 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 605 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. These thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail, and
localized tornadoes. Heavy rain could cause localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
536 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NE Birchardville      41.89N 75.97W
08/07/2023                   Susquehanna        PA   911 Call Center

            Trees down on road.

&&

JTC

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
708 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW West Eaton         42.83N 75.68W
08/07/2023                   Madison            NY   911 Call Center

            Trees and wires down on road. Boat flipped
            upside down.

&&

JTC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
717 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Munnsville          42.94N 75.58W
08/07/2023                   Madison            NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down, house damage.

&&

JTC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
721 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Lanesboro           41.96N 75.54W
08/07/2023                   Susquehanna        PA   Emergency Mngr

            trees/wires down Stevens Point Road possible
            tornado time estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
726 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Great Bend          41.97N 75.72W
08/07/2023                   Susquehanna        PA   Broadcast Media

            Multiple Trees down.

&&

JTC