Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
524 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep through the region this evening with
gusty showers and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures
will close out the weekend and linger into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
520 PM Update...
Negatively-tilted convergence zone continues to progress
through the area with convective showers and isolated thunder.
Satellite-derived soundings ahead of the line reveal why
convection is being challenged to produce actual lightning; a
lot of dry air between 750-500mb. However, despite Convective
Available Potential Energy (CAPE) being limited and narrow
above, down below Downdraft-CAPE shows up as in the 500-800
J/kg range on the SPC mesoanalysis page along with 0-3km lapse
rates exceeding 8 deg C/km. This is reflective of the inverted-V
nature within the boundary layer of model soundings, and that
is why we have had gusty winds mixing down well ahead of the
showers-thunder; often in the 30-40 mph range. The convective
line itself is also pushing similar numbers, but gusts should
remain sub-severe yet also capable of taking down
branches/spotty power outages. We will monitor the radar
closely, especially towards Northeast Corner of PA into Sullivan
County NY, for if any cells can pulse enough for consideration
of marginally severe gusts.

Points farther north especially unlikely though to get severe
gusts, but the convergence zone will produce a decent amount of
rain since its progress will be slow/negatively-tilted through
the rest of the area. Rain amounts east of I-81 through tonight are
anticipated to total 0.8-1.4 inches. It has been quite dry
recently so we are not expecting flooding problems, though more
typical ponding of water on roads/urban areas in heavier
showers will probably occur.

Forecast updated to keep up with these details of convection
and beginning/ending times, as well as pace of temperature drop
behind the front.

Previous discussion...
Showers will linger well behind the cold front, and expect
plenty of low clouds areas of fog through the night. Clouds will
linger through Sunday, along with cooler temperatures in the
50s. It'll actually be a few degrees below normal as normal high
temps have increased to 59 at SYR and 64 at AVP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

An upper level low will be the main feature impacting the
weather for our area during this period.

A blocking pattern to over eastern Canada will keep an upper
level low spinning mostly stationary over the northern Great
Lakes. Consistent W to NW will bring cool temperatures to the
area. Cooler temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere combined
with shortwaves rippling through the trough pattern will allow
for scattered rain showers to develop during peak heating Monday
and Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Temps Monday night and Tuesday night are going to be chilly,
with lows falling into the upper 20s to low 30s for most of the
area.

With Lackawanna and Luzerne counties entering the growing
season, temperatures will have to be closely watched to see if
freeze/frost headlines will be needed. Currently, temps are
forecast to be close to freezing on Monday night and a few
degrees warmer on Tuesday night. Monday night, winds will be
light but not calm and skies could clear out by the middle of
the overnight, allowing for a brief window of radiational
cooling to occur, dropping temps below freezing. Confidence in
the cold temps Monday and Tuesday night is not high enough to
issue any headlines but we will continue to monitor the trends.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM Update...

The cut-off upper low will remain over the region through the
week and will continue to send shortwaves through the area. A
slow warming trend is expected from Wed-Fri with temps climbing
from the low 50s to low 60s. Diurnal showers are expected with
PoPs mostly focused around afternoon peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fairly gusty winds across the area this afternoon, with gusts to
35 knots already observed in a few spots. This will continue to
be the case this afternoon, even as showers and thunderstorms
increase in coverage over the Finger Lakes and march eastward.
Gusts over 40 knots can't be ruled out in stronger showers or
thunderstorms.

Initial round of convection will bring brief MVFR to IFR
conditions, then perhaps a brief rebound to VFR, then dropping
steadily again as widespread showers will linger behind a
passing cold front. Winds will be much lighter behind the front,
dropping to around 5 to 10 knots.

With most areas receiving rain, and lighter winds expected,
patchy fog will likely develop despite the cloud cover
overnight. Cloud cover will linger through Sunday, but ceilings
will lift to VFR. Additional showers in the afternoon will bring
some restrictions.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon Through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Conditions likely improving to VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT/MDP/MPH
NEAR TERM...MDP/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPH/TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
837 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-231245-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
837 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to area this
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms could be severe. The
main threat will be damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

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