Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
333 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring a wide range in temperatures to the
region this afternoon, along with periods of showers and
thunderstorms as a few upper level disturbances roll across the
area. A cold front will push east of the area Thursday morning,
with drier and cooler weather expected for Friday. A dry weekend
is on tap, and temperatures will begin climbing back up to near
normal on Sunday, and above normal again on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

330 PM Update...

A maritime layer coming from the east continues to persist over our
area. A warm front associated with a low pressure system over the
Great Lakes attempts to move in from the west this evening. It
experiences push back from the maritime air mass, this causes the
warm front to remain stationary over our area for an extended period
of time. At 0Z the maritime layer starts to subside as the warm
front pushes into our region with convective rain showers and
thunderstorms ahead of it. Strong low level winds push warmer air
aloft causing a temperature inversion, this caps our area and keeps
us stable ruling out the possibility of severe thunderstorms.
Stronger instability is present over the west of our CWA, if
anything were to develop it would weaken once it reaches the cooler
maritime airmass.

A chance of scattered rain showers continue tonight with mild
temperatures in the 50s and the low 60s. Cold front moves in early
tomorrow morning with cooler temperatures. The front is
expected to push far enough SE to limit the potential for severe
thunderstorms, although NE PA could see pop up thunderstorms in
the afternoon.Thursday night high pressure will dominate with
clearing skies and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
2 PM Update...

Friday a large surface high pressure system over the western
Great Lakes combined with the western portion of an upper level
trough will bring a NW flow across the area into Saturday. This
will advect a cold Canadian airmass into the region, keeping
temperatures below normal. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in
the 40s across CNY with upper 40s to mid 50s over NEPA.
Lows will be in the 20s Friday and Saturday nights.

The surface high will slowly drift east to be centered almost
overhead Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM Update...

This period will be dominated by a strong ridge of high pressure
sitting over the region, keeping conditions mostly warm and
dry. The surface high moves to northeast US NE coast and
stalls. Some guidance is hinting at a weak wave riding the
northern edge of the ridge and bringing a some light rain
showers across the northern portion of the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Capped these PoPs at slight chance given the
lack of model certainty and the fact that the ridge overhead
should be strong enough to squash any precip trying to develop.

A warming trend will occur is expected through this period,
with highs on Sunday in the 50s, climbing to the 70s Wednesday.
Lows in the low and mid 30s Sunday night climbs to the 40s
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All of our terminals in central NY / northeast PA were under the
influence of a east to southeasterly marine layer. KBGM and
KAVP were still MVFR with the rest of the terminals mixing out
the lower ceilings to VFR conditions due to insolation. We
expect showers and even a rumble of thunder to cross the region
tonight. This combined with nighttime cooling will lead to MVFR
and even locally some IFR conditions late this afternoon into
tonight. Confidence is low as to where and how long the IFR
conditions will last. We are most confident at KBGM and for a
brief time at KSYR and KRME due to higher chance for visibility
restricting showers. Then late tonight and Tammara morning we
expect all terminals to range from MVFR to again IFR at BGM
which will all improve to VFR late morning/early afternoon. KBGM
likely will be the holdout and linger with MVFR to 18z or
beyond.

Winds will be southeast to south most terminals through tonight
at 10 to 20 knots with some gusts to 30 or higher. KELM likely
will be more southwesterly. We also have LLWS at KRME where a
backed flow up the Mohawk Valley is leading to LLWS between 00z
and 10z. Additionally, KAVP will likely see LLWS 02z to 14z as
the marine layer is more persistent.

Outlook...

Thursday...Showers and associated restrictions; low chance for
daytime thunderstorms.

Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...JTC/TAC
LONG TERM...JTC/TAC
AVIATION...DJN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

NYZ009-017-018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-061930-
Northern Oneida-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-
Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-
Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
321 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ015-016-022-061930-
Yates-Seneca-Steuben-
321 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms may work into the area this
evening, with damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
102 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

NYZ009-051730-
Northern Oneida NY-
102 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Oneida
County through 130 PM EDT...

At 101 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Camden, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Camden, Florence, Ava, Taberg, Point Rock, North Western, Pixley
Falls State Park and Glenmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4335 7530 4329 7562 4329 7572 4327 7573
      4325 7585 4328 7587 4332 7587 4332 7588
      4342 7585 4347 7576 4342 7553 4348 7539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 239DEG 46KT 4335 7583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AJG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
504 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

NYZ015-022-052145-
Steuben NY-Yates NY-
504 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Yates and north
central Steuben Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wayland, or 7 miles northeast of Dansville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Penn Yan, Benton, Potter, Wayland, Dundee, Middlesex, Italy,
Rushville, Dresden and Guyanoga.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 390 near 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 7737 4267 7737 4267 7736 4273 7734
      4276 7731 4276 7695 4271 7693 4252 7692
      4254 7766 4258 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 266DEG 41KT 4264 7759

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AJG