Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
215 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region this afternoon and
evening, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Smoke and hazy
conditions will clear up behind the front tonight. High
pressure and dry conditions are expected on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

210 PM Update...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are starting to develop
across central NY. Cold front is still in western NY and will
slowly push eastward, exiting the region late tonight. Some
modest instability exists, but overall the instability was
hindered by earlier clouds and also smoke. Over the last few
runs, CAMs have also cut back on the coverage of convection
across our area, however, still think an isolated severe threat
will exist with the greatest chance for any severe storms being
across the eastern CWA. Also, with the wet antecedent
conditions, there will be some potential for localized flash
flooding, especially in the Catskills.

Once the front passes tonight, the haze and smoke should
diminish across the region, but may still linger a bit in
sheltered valleys. High pressure will build in from the west
overnight, with clearing skies and valley fog are likely to form
through the early morning hours on Wednesday.

High pressure remains overhead tomorrow. A few isolated showers
will be possible in the southern Catskills and Poconos, but at
this time it appears that the high will be strong enough to
keep most shower activity south of the area. Skies will again be
mostly clear tomorrow night and valley fog is likely to develop
after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

145 PM update...

High pressure will hang on a little longer on Thursday to bring a
dry start to the day. There is some uncertainty with the timing of a
surface low and associated frontal boundary that will bring showers
and storms to the region. Some guidance is showing showers and
storms developing Thursday evening or even as late as Thursday
night. If the timing is indeed later, then there would be little
concern for severe storms, at least on Thursday. The overnight hours
and Friday do look better for showers and thunderstorms, though
instability and shear increases Friday afternoon. Still with morning
activity expected, instability may not be as high as modeled.

Warm southerly flow will help push temps into the 80s during the day
on Thursday and overnight temps will only fall into the 60s. The
cold front will bring some relief as highs only in the mid 70s to
low 80s, with the lower elevations having the best chance of
exceeding 80. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 50s to low
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
145 PM update...

A weak wave will try to take advantage of moisture over CNY on
Saturday and kick off some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure builds in following this system, leading to a mostly
dry and pleasant second half of the weekend. A weak shortwave
will move through in the afternoon, but moisture will be quite
limited. The high will remain in control through the start of
next week. Ensemble guidance favors showers again Monday with
another passing wave, but most deterministic guidance keeps
conditions dry. The next system approaches from the west
Tuesday, though there is some uncertainty on exact timing.
Still, this will be next chance for showers into the region.

Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s through the weekend, before
warming back up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Haze/smoke will eventually start to dissipate this evening and
tonight as a cold front pushes through the region. However, that
front will kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening with associated restrictions. Showers and
storms will wind down tonight with high pressure building in
behind the front. Overnight, most sites will remain VFR, but fog
will develop in some areas, especially in locations that receive
heavy rain from thunderstorms this afternoon and fog will be
most likely at ELM. Any fog will dissipate tomorrow morning and
then VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the
period.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with occasional restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPK

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