Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region by early tonight ending the
threat for severe thunderstorms. High pressure and dry weather
then moves in for the weekend, before additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible on Monday with the next system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear
of around 40 knots in east central NY and northeast PA. Local
mesoanalysis shows a backed flow in the very low levels which Tuesday is expected to remain a bit unsettled as the upper-level
trough with our Monday storm lags behind and slowly moves through
the area Tuesday keeping the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
There are some timing differences with the speed of the trough with
the Euro having it push east through the area quicker than the GFS
and Canadian, thus drying out the area faster. Wednesday appears to
be a largely dry day before the chance of showers and perhaps
embedded thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday with the next
upper trough and cold front approaching. Highs Tuesday will be
mainly in the 70s, then it will turn a little warmer mid-to-late
week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

likely is a holdover from the stable marine layer dissipating
with the daytime heating. We believe this has allowed for
localized low-level helicity and some mini supercells firing
up. We have had a couple tornado warnings as a result.

Short wave and associated mid- level jet streak was moving
southeast from the Great Lakes. This mid level jet streak has
pushed the cold front through central NY w/ northeast PA and
our far eastern counties in central NY still under the gun for
severe as front hasn't cleared these areas yet. Once the front
clears the region by early evening severe threat will wane.

Then high pressure will build in for the weekend with fair
weather beginning the day with valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and pleasant weather conditions will continue Sunday with
temperatures mainly in the low 80s. Clouds will begin to build in
Sunday night as a deepening trough of low pressure and developingTuesday is expected to remain a bit unsettled as the upper-level
trough with our Monday storm lags behind and slowly moves through
the area Tuesday keeping the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
There are some timing differences with the speed of the trough with
the Euro having it push east through the area quicker than the GFS
and Canadian, thus drying out the area faster. Wednesday appears to
be a largely dry day before the chance of showers and perhaps
embedded thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday with the next
upper trough and cold front approaching. Highs Tuesday will be
mainly in the 70s, then it will turn a little warmer mid-to-late
week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

surface low move over the central Great Lakes. Despite the increase
in clouds, much of the night looks to remain dry, with just the
slight chance of a shower reaching the far western parts of the CWA
before daybreak Monday morning. The thickening clouds and southerly
flow will keep overnight lows relatively mild in the 60s.

Monday will be the next day to keep a close eye on. The surface low
over the Great Lakes will gradually lift northeastward during the
day toward the St. Lawrence Valley. The warm front associated with
the low is expected to lift north of the CWA by the afternoon
followed by the cold front moving through west to east later on in
the day and into Monday night. Strong southerly flow will lead to an
influx of moisture over the area with PWATs estimated to be on
average 1.75-2.00 inches, so the potential for heavy downpours will
be there. With regards to instability, there will be a strengthening
low-level jet Sunday night into Monday, wind shear values Monday of
30-40 knots and CAPE values are already being modeled around 1000
J/kg, so locally strong to perhaps severe storms will be possible.
The SPC does have the CWA outlined on day 4 with a 15% outlook for
severe weather already. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly
diminish later Monday night. Highs Monday are expected to be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday is expected to remain a bit unsettled as the upper-level
trough with our Monday storm lags behind and slowly moves through
the area Tuesday keeping the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
There are some timing differences with the speed of the trough with
the Euro having it push east through the area quicker than the GFS
and Canadian, thus drying out the area faster. Wednesday appears to
be a largely dry day before the chance of showers and perhaps
embedded thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday with the next
upper trough and cold front approaching. Highs Tuesday will be
mainly in the 70s, then it will turn a little warmer mid-to-late
week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall our northern terminals and KELM are VFR as the storms
have passed to the south. We expect cumulus clouds to fade off
in these areas after sunset. Farther south from KBGM to KAVP we
have passing thunderstorms in tempo groups that bring
conditions down to at least IFR in thunderstorms for 1 to 3
hours before 23z. We expect these storms to pass by 19-20z at
KBGM and the latest by 23z at KAVP. Once the storms pass we
expect VFR conditions. But we are confident that widespread
valley fog will form leading to IFR conditions after 4-6z at
KELM and even some IFR fog at KBGM around 12z. After the fog
lifts around 13-14z, we expect some VFR cumulus. Confidence is
high for IFR at KELM from around 4z-14z. Uncertainty exists on
if airport minimums are reached for a lengthy period of time.
Right now we have tempo groups at KELM between 08z and 12z for
airport mins.

Winds will be westerly up to 10 knots most terminals before
sunset and then go fairly calm overnight.

For Saturday morning, we expect northwest winds under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...mainly VFR, except
restrictions in early morning valley fog at KELM.

Monday and Tuesday...chance of showers/thunderstorms and
associated restrictions.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DJN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
158 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

NYZ055-056-PAZ038-039-041830-
Tioga NY-Broome NY-Susquehanna PA-Bradford PA-
158 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Broome,
southeastern Tioga, northwestern Susquehanna and northeastern
Bradford Counties through 230 PM EDT...

At 158 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Apalachin, or near Owego, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Binghamton, Vestal, Johnson City, Endicott, Owego, Windham, Nichols,
Little Meadows, Friendsville and Apalachin.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 86/Route 17 between 63 and 69.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 7638 4214 7632 4211 7594 4187 7602
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 285DEG 27KT 4203 7620

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
209 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

NYZ057-041845-
Delaware NY-
209 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Delaware County through 245 PM EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Margaretville, or 18 miles southeast of Delhi, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Margaretville, Fleischmanns, Arkville and Dunraven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4216 7448 4215 7450 4215 7453 4213 7454
      4206 7468 4216 7472 4220 7453 4217 7446
      4216 7446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 276DEG 24KT 4211 7464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

BTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
210 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

PAZ038-041845-
Bradford PA-
210 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Bradford
County through 245 PM EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ridgebury, or 8 miles southwest of Chemung, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Towanda, Ridgebury, West Franklin, Troy, Sheshequin, Ulster,
North Towanda, Springfield and West Burlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4191 7691 4201 7670 4200 7663 4185 7633
      4164 7666
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 312DEG 20KT 4191 7672

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
228 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

NYZ036-045-046-041900-
Otsego NY-Chenango NY-Madison NY-
228 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Otsego,
southeastern Madison and northeastern Chenango Counties through 300
PM EDT...

At 228 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brookfield, or 8 miles southeast of Hamilton, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brookfield, Edmeston, Poolville, South Brookfield, Leonardsville,
Hubbardsville, South Edmeston and Lambs Corners.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 7551 4282 7549 4283 7512 4263 7520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 284DEG 20KT 4277 7540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

BTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

NYZ045-056-041915-
Chenango NY-Broome NY-
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Broome and
southwestern Chenango Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sanitaria Springs, or 10 miles east of Greater Binghamton Airport,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harpursville, Sanitaria Springs, Nineveh, Chenango Valley State Park
and Belden.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 88 between 5 and 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4219 7587 4229 7585 4228 7555 4212 7558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 279DEG 22KT 4222 7578

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KL

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