Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
243 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Key Messages:

 - Thunderstorms Diminish Tonight

 - Cooler Night Expected Sunday Night

 - Multiple Chances for Precipitation Late This Week into Weekend

This afternoon: Scattered Pop-Up Thunderstorms

As a shortwave trough moves from west to east across the region this
afternoon, pop up thunderstorms are expected to continue with
diurnal heating bringing CAPE values of 750-1000J/kg. Main threats
are small hail and lightning with shear values rather low and unable
to sustain longer-lived storms. Storm threat shifts slowly east
through the afternoon hours and wanes as sun goes down and
instability drops.

Sunday into Monday: Seasonable Temperatures and Dry

Behind today's shortwave trough, surface high pressure and upper-
level ridging will slide into the region with NW flow keeping
temperatures a few degrees below normal. High pressure overhead
Sunday night will bring clear skies and light winds. This
combination will bring a cool night across the area with low
temperatures falling into the 40s across the area. Typical cool
spots may (20% chance) fall into the upper 30s across Jackson/Monroe
counties and to the north.

Rest of the week: Warming Up with Increasing Precipitation Chances

Warm, southerly return flow increases Monday night as the high
pressure shifts east. Along this southerly flow, there are low end
thunderstorm chances (20 to 30%) as an embedded wave along a ridge
axis passes through the region. A large, deep trough is then
expected to dig in across the western CONUS Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Medium range models and their ensemble means are all
supportive of this general idea; however, there are timing and
magnitude details that are less clear. Temperatures will moderate
to near 80 degrees Wednesday through Friday.

As the deep trough takes hold over the western CONUS, lobes of
energy are expected to eject from the trough across the Northern
Plains bringing precipitation chances across the Upper Midwest near
the end of this week. This trough/ridge pattern will be supportive
of southerly gulf moisture remaining present across the Midwest
through much of the week. By this weekend, medium range ensembles
suggest this large scale trough to begin shifting east into the
Northern Plains. Details aren't too clear heading into the weekend
as ensemble members begin diverging solutions, but will maintain 40-
50% PoPs Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at RST and LSE.
As a weak system moves across the region this afternoon, there is
a low chance (20-30%) that showers and an isolated thunderstorm
impact LSE between 19-21Z and have included a tempo for those
chances.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...JAW
AVIATION...JAW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
244 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

IAZ030-WIZ041>044-053>055-061-171145-
Clayton-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
244 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...central Wisconsin...southwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy to areas of dense fog are possible this morning.
Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms are possible from late this
morning through evening with lightning being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action is needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
171145-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
244 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
north central Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread dense fog will continue through mid-morning.
Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action is needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

nofwd

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
206 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

MNZ096-161930-
Houston MN-
206 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact
central Houston Countythrough 230 PM CDT...

At 205 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Caledonia, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Caledonia around 210 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Beaver Creek Valley
State Park, Reno, Freeburg, Highway 44 And Sanden Road, County Roads
3 And 24, and Mound Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4377 9161 4385 9130 4385 9129 4379 9126
      4378 9124 4373 9125 4371 9127 4365 9127
      4365 9126 4361 9127 4358 9124 4359 9159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 257DEG 17KT 4365 9152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
231 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

MNZ096-WIZ053-162000-
Houston MN-Vernon WI-
231 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact southeastern Houston and
northwestern Vernon Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Caledonia, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brownsville around 240 PM CDT.
  Stoddard around 245 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Reno, Highway 44 And
Sanden Road, County Roads 3 And 24, Genoa, Freeburg, County 14 And
White Tail Road, and Lock And Dam 8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4355 9149 4373 9149 4373 9126 4372 9119
      4353 9120
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 269DEG 14KT 4364 9139

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
258 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

WIZ041-042-053-162030-
Vernon WI-La Crosse WI-Monroe WI-
258 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact southeastern La Crosse,
northwestern Vernon and southwestern Monroe Counties through 330 PM
CDT...

At 256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stoddard, or 10 miles south of La Crosse, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph, half inch hail, and torrential
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in
         a short while that could cause rapid rises in creeks and
         streams.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Coon Valley around 310 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mount La Crosse,
County Roads G And H, Brinkman Ridge, Jersey Valley County Park,
Portland, South Side Of La Crosse, Esofea, Goose Island, Highways 14
61 And County M M, and The Coulee Experimental Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4361 9127 4363 9127 4365 9126 4365 9127
      4371 9127 4373 9125 4375 9125 4377 9124
      4390 9083 4362 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 262DEG 15KT 4368 9119

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Skow

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