Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS La Crosse, WI

311 
WWUS53 KARX 120029
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
729 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

WIC011-121-120100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-230812T0100Z/
Buffalo WI-Trempealeau WI-
729 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 728 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Arcadia, moving
southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe storm will be near...
  Galesville around 740 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Highway
95 And County D, Camp Decorah, Dodge, Beach Corners, Perrot State
Park, Marshland and Thimble Park.

People attending Ashley for the Arts in Arcadia should seek safe 
shelter immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 9117 4425 9117 4425 9115 4408 9115
      4409 9117 4409 9120 4405 9122 4406 9125
      4407 9127 4406 9128 4407 9131 4403 9134
      4402 9134 4399 9132 4398 9141 4416 9168
      4443 9154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 300DEG 39KT 4422 9146 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Skow

032 
WWUS53 KARX 120041
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
741 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

WIC011-120050-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-230812T0100Z/
Buffalo WI-
741 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4435 9117 4425 9117 4425 9115 4408 9115
      4409 9120 4405 9122 4407 9127 4406 9128
      4407 9131 4402 9134 4399 9132 4398 9141
      4408 9154 4410 9154 4411 9155 4413 9155
      4422 9140 4439 9133 4438 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 300DEG 39KT 4415 9129 

$$

WIC121-120100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-230812T0100Z/
Trempealeau WI-
741 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTY...

At 740 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Galesville, or
12 miles southeast of Arcadia, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southern Trempealeau County, including the following locations...
Highway 95 And County D, Peacock Hill, Camp Decorah, Beach Corners,
Frenchville, Thimble Park and Ettrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 9117 4425 9117 4425 9115 4408 9115
      4409 9120 4405 9122 4407 9127 4406 9128
      4407 9131 4402 9134 4399 9132 4398 9141
      4408 9154 4410 9154 4411 9155 4413 9155
      4422 9140 4439 9133 4438 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 300DEG 39KT 4415 9129 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Skow

515 
WWUS53 KARX 120056
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
756 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

WIC121-120105-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-230812T0100Z/
Trempealeau WI-
756 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4435 9117 4425 9117 4425 9115 4408 9115
      4409 9120 4405 9122 4407 9127 4406 9128
      4407 9131 4402 9134 4399 9132 4398 9141
      4408 9154 4410 9154 4411 9155 4413 9155
      4422 9140 4439 9133 4438 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 300DEG 39KT 4407 9109 

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Key Messages:

- A broken line of strong to severe storms moves through the
  region from west to east this evening. The greatest risk from
  these storms will be large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and
  damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph.

- Pleasant weather for the weekend into early next week with
  periodic chances for storms Sunday into next week.

This Afternoon - Tonight:

A seasonably strong upper tropospheric shortwave trough with
multiple embedded vort lobes is digging across North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota early this afternoon with a 80-90-kt jet streak
working around the southern flank of the trough. At the surface,
broad west to southwest anticyclonic flow is in place ahead of
this feature with surface temperatures rising into the low to
mid-80s and dewpoints remains in the low to mid-60s. ACARS
sounding data from MSP shows only modest lapse rates aloft
limiting SB/MLCAPE values to around 1000 to 500 J/kg,
respectively. These values should slowly rise with daytime solar
insolation with 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE progged by late this
afternoon.

Back to the northwest, a surface cold front/residual outflow
boundary is marching eastward through western Minnesota with the
boundary stretching from Montevideo to Wadena, MN as of 2 pm.
Slowly strengthening convection over north-central Minnesota is
tied into this boundary with continued development expected along
the outflow over the next few hours. Convective initiation is
forecast along and west of the Interstate 35 corridor around 5 pm
with hodographs supporting storm motions of 35-40 kts to the
east/southeast. These storms will quickly work off the initiating
boundary and remain discrete for several hours, though linear
hodographs will support splitting storms and eventual upscale
growth to multi-cell clusters and possibly a few line segments.

Effective shear profiles of 30-50+ kts will support rotating
updrafts with the nearly straight hodographs also supporting large
hail production with any strong updraft. Damaging winds will also be
a risk given the steep low-level lapse rates and fast storm motions.
The storms should only linger over a given location for an hour or
two as they march to the ESE, with the severe weather threat winding
down by 10-11pm. Widespread fog is likely under any corridors of
rainfall tonight with visibilities falling below a half mile at
times.

Saturday - Friday:

Pleasant conditions look to start off the weekend as the shortwave
trough continues to move off to the east. High temperatures hang
around in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most, with deeper mixing also
allowing for a few increased wind gusts through the afternoon. Have
noted that a few hi-res models suggest low chances for a few spotty
showers passing through far northern Wisconsin. However, there
remains low confidence in how far south any shower may reach into
north-central Wisconsin counties.

These quiet conditions will be short-lived as another shortwave
trough drops southeastward across the Northern Plains and over the
area Sunday into Monday. At the surface an associated low is
expected to move eastward with its attendant cold front swinging
through the region. This will bring our next focus for shower and
storm chances early Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.
PWATS look to increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range late Sunday,
with ensemble solutions showing probabilities nearing 50-70+% (20-
50%) for QPF greater than or equal to 0.5" (>= 1")  across southeast
MN and west-central/central Wisconsin by early Monday morning.
Ensemble guidance suggests limited instability across the local
forecast area ahead of the system, which could work to limit severe
weather potential. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble solutions would
keep highest CAPE values southwest and south of the forecast area,
with GEFS only showing up to 20% probabilities of CAPE greater than
or equal to 500 J/kg just reaching into portions of northeast Iowa.
The ECMWF ens members push highest CAPE values even further
southwest/south, keeping probabilities out of the local area
completely. Although conditions look to favor the higher risk for
severe weather southwest and south of the forecast area, it will be
something to monitor as details regarding the location of the warm
front/etc continue to be resolved.

Lingering shower chances continue into the day on Monday, with
cooler conditions as highs struggle to reach into the 70s. Behind
the departing upper level trough ridging builds back in for the day
Tuesday. This looks to bring a break in shower and storm chances as
well as increasing temperatures through early mid-week. Some
indication for another system to move through the region late
Wednesday into Thursday. However, there remain quite a few
differences among models on strength, timing, and location. There is
lower forecast confidence this far out, so not making any changes to
the blended model guidance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Immediate concern continues to be strong to severe storms moving
from northwest to southeast from 12.00Z in southeast Minnesota to
12.06Z in central Wisconsin. Have continued +TSRA at KRST at
12.00Z issuance with 12.02Z start at KLSE. As for non-TAF sites,
line of storms expected to impact all lower class airspace.
through the late evening into the early morning hours in the
aforementioned direction and timing.

Concern then becomes limited visibilities with scattered to areas
of fog for much of the area. Similar to previous 11.18Z TAF,
continued IFR visbys at both TAF sites through 12.13/14Z.
Elsewhere, outside of river valleys, scattered fog expected to
affect Cranberry bogs in central Wisconsin (KBCK-KMDZ). Wisconsin
River Valley expected to be widespread fog inducing LIFR visbys.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Skow/EMS
AVIATION...JAR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
500 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-121100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
500 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There will be scattered storms from late this afternoon into this
evening. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds
and large hail the main threats. Timing of the severe weather
threat looks to be from 6 pm to 11 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a small chance of storms from Sunday into Monday but
severe weather is not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening between 6 pm and
11 pm.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
609 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

WIZ029-112345-
Clark WI-
609 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Clark
County through 645 PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Boyd, or 24 miles east of Eau Claire, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thorp, Greenwood, Owen, Longwood, Reseburg, Willard, Withee, Curtiss,
Mead Lake, Atwood, Tioga, Eidsvold, Sterling Avenue And Starks Road,
Seven Sister Mounds, The Blue Swamp, Rock Dam Lake and Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4494 9040 4460 9081 4467 9092 4503 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 303DEG 37KT 4493 9102

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Skow

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
634 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Longwood                44.89N 90.60W
08/11/2023  M60 MPH          Clark              WI   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
648 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Loyal                   44.74N 90.50W
08/11/2023  E70 MPH          Clark              WI   Public

&&

jar

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
649 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     Hail             Nelson                  44.42N 92.00W
08/11/2023  E0.88 inch       Buffalo            WI   Trained Spotter

            pea to nickel sized.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
653 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     Hail             1 N Loyal               44.75N 90.50W
08/11/2023  E1.00 inch       Clark              WI   Public

&&

jar