Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS La Crosse, WI

827 
WWUS53 KARX 110213
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
913 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

MNC157-110230-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230711T0230Z/
Wabasha MN-
913 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WABASHA COUNTY...

At 913 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Wabasha, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Wabasha around 920 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Dumfries, Zumbro Bottoms Campground, Theilman, County Roads 18 And 4,
Kruger Campground, West Albany and County Roads 33 And 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4432 9235 4442 9224 4437 9202 4421 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 300DEG 28KT 4432 9219 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Skow

865 
WWUS53 KARX 110225
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
925 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

MNC157-110235-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230711T0230Z/
Wabasha MN-
925 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WABASHA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4432 9235 4442 9224 4437 9202 4421 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 300DEG 28KT 4428 9211 

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
613 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Key Messages:

 - Scattered storms, a few potentially strong/severe, developing late
   this afternoon/evening. The main hazards are strong winds
   perhaps some hail this evening.

 - Maybe another low chance of strong to maybe severe storms on
   Tuesday Night south of Interstate 90.

 - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances from Wednesday Night
   through Monday. Both the heavy rain and severe weather threats
   look to be south and southwest of the area.

Tonight:

Early this afternoon a cold front stretched from central MN to
northern WI with gusty southwest winds pushing temps well into the
80s. A few showers were occurring in the vicinity of the boundary in
north-central WI. Overall, expect coverage of storms to increase
late this afternoon/evening along the front where moisture
convergence is maximized and broad large scale lift with a shortwave
trough occurs. Deeper boundary layer mixing/large dew point
depressions will limit instability somewhat, with the RAP indicating
up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE along the boundary. Will have to
watch moisture trends through the afternoon, as a more aggressive
mixout, as the HRRR suggests, could limit/impact coverage of storms
during the evening, but the HRRR has initialized too dry so far
early this afternoon. A few CAMs have also shown some pre-frontal
storms developing with modest low-level convergence/perhaps a weak
shortwave trough by late afternoon with little capping, but
confidence in this evolution is lower.

The stronger deep layer shear will lag the front, while some
increase in low-level shear is expected with a modestly increasing
low-level jet during the evening. With the linear forcing and along
boundary shear vectors, some linear organization of storms is
possible before storms weaken overnight with loss of instability.
Locally damaging winds are the primary threat given the deeply mixed
boundary layer although a few storms within the first few hours of
storm initiation could also produce marginally severe hail. Given
the timing of the front, the higher chances for any severe storms
looks to be near or north of I-90 this evening.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday:

Another shortwave trough will eject out of the Northern Plains
on Tuesday evening and move southeast through the Mid and Upper
Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
There is still plenty of uncertainty on the northern extent of the
severe weather threat with this wave. Elevated CAPES look to be
generally less than 500 J/kg along and south of Interstate 90.
Unlike tonight, there is much better 0-6 km shear (around 40
knots). Much of this shear is located in the 0-3 km layer.
However, with the area being north of warm front, we will not
likely realize all of this shear. As a result, took a look at the
1-3 km layer shear and it is generally less than 20 knots. If a
storm happens to be a bit closer to the warm front, the effective
shear could potentially reach 30-35 knots. The CAMs currently have
a wide variety evolution of convective systems on Tuesday night.
At this time, it looks like the best chances of severe weather
will be mainly across northern and central parts of Iowa and
Illinois. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a marginal
risk for our far southern counties and that seems reasonable. The
main severe weather threat would be hail.

While there will be likely (40-80% - highest along and south of
Interstate 90) be rainfall, the heaviest rain looks to fall south
of our area. Currently, have rainfall totals up to a quarter inch
north of Interstate 90 and a quarter to a third of an inch across
the remainder of the area. Depending on the location of the
storms on Tuesday night, rainfall totals could be in the excess of
1 inch. The grand ensemble suggest the probabilities of this
occurring in less than 15%.

Wednesday Night through Monday...

The 10.12z models are in general agreement that there will be an
active northwest flow across the northern US. This could result
in periodic showers and storms. At this time, it looks like the
heaviest rain and severe weather threats would be mainly southwest
and southwest of the area. As typical in these situations, the
timing of these waves are highly uncertain; thus, stayed close to
the NBM precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Scattered thunderstorms move through the region this evening and
overnight, ending from northwest to southeast before 12Z. Cloud
bases should remain VFR, but localized IFR visibility restrictions
are possible with any stronger storms. Hail up to 1.5 inches and
wind gusts to 60 mph are possible with these storms this evening
before 05Z. Dry conditions are forecast for much of Tuesday, but
a 20-30 percent chance of showers and storms does move into
southeast Minnesota late in the afternoon. Winds turn from the
southwest to the north overnight and remain as such through the
day at 5-10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Boyne/JM
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1152 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-112100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1152 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms will develop late this afternoon through
tonight. A few may be severe, especially near and north of
Interstate 90, with peak timing from 6 pm to 11 pm. Damaging winds
and hail are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional periodic thunderstorm chances persist Tuesday night through
the weekend. It remains too early to discern any severe weather
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be requested.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
651 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

WIZ017-110015-
Taylor WI-
651 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Taylor
County through 715 PM CDT...

At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sheldon, or 13 miles south of Ladysmith, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jump River around 710 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hannibal, Donald and
Gilman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4517 9074 4519 9093 4537 9092 4538 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 273DEG 29KT 4528 9102

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
733 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

WIZ017-110100-
Taylor WI-
733 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Taylor
County through 800 PM CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hawkins, or 20 miles east of Ladysmith, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Chelsea and Westboro around 800 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Mondeaux Flowage
and County Roads D And N.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4527 9027 4537 9075 4538 9075 4538 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 282DEG 39KT 4542 9067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
810 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

WIZ017-110130-
Taylor WI-
810 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Taylor
County through 830 PM CDT...

At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chelsea, or near Medford, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rib Lake around 825 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Highway M And Joe
Martin Road, Goodrich and Highway 13 And County Road M.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4515 9005 4515 9043 4527 9047 4534 9005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 261DEG 35KT 4523 9036

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
856 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

MNZ079-110230-
Wabasha MN-
856 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Wabasha
County through 930 PM CDT...

At 855 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Frontenac, or 14 miles southeast of Red Wing, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wabasha around 925 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Dumfries, Zumbro
Bottoms Campground, Oak Center, Theilman, Maple Springs, Gilbert
Valley, County Roads 18 And 4, Kruger Campground, West Albany and
County Roads 31 And 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9245 4437 9243 4439 9243 4445 9240
      4446 9238 4439 9204 4438 9203 4421 9214
      4434 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 293DEG 28KT 4439 9236

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Skow