Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2023

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

March 17, 2023Antrim County, Kalkaska County, Otsego County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Mar 17, 2023, 3:55 PM EDT for Antrim County, Kalkaska County, Otsego County, Michigan. It took effect at Mar 17, 2023, 5:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 37 hr. 13 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2023, 3:55 PM EDT (19:55 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 17, 2023, 5:00 PM EDT
Expired
Mar 19, 2023, 5:48 AM EDT
In force
37 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Antrim County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Otsego County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 17, 10:45 PM EDTSNOW 32 Ene Otsego Lake State, MI6 HOUR TOTAL THRU 11 PM.
Mar 18, 6:01 AM EDTHEAVY SNOW 83 N Otsego Lake State P, MI18 HOUR TOTAL.
Mar 18, 6:04 AM EDTHEAVY SNOW 114 Ese Alba, MI18 HOUR TOTAL.
Mar 18, 6:05 AM EDTHEAVY SNOW 114 Ese Alba, MI18 HOUR TOTAL.
Mar 18, 6:16 AM EDTSNOW 36 Ssw Boyne City, MI18 HOUR TOTAL.
Mar 18, 6:37 AM EDTHEAVY SNOW 95 W Waters, MI18 HOUR TOTAL.
Mar 18, 6:38 AM EDTHEAVY SNOW 73 Se Gaylord, MI18 HOUR TOTAL.
Mar 18, 6:54 AM EDTHEAVY SNOW 125 Nw Otsego Lake State, MI18 HOUR TOTAL.
Mar 18, 7:00 AM EDTHEAVY SNOW 8.52 Nne Otsego Lake State, MICOCORAHS STATION MI-OT-17 GAYLORD 4.1 S.
Mar 18, 7:32 AM EDTSNOW 9.56 S Gaylord, MI18 HOUR STORM TOTAL.
Mar 18, 8:00 AM EDTSNOW 4.81 Nw Waters, MIOBSERVED STORM TOTAL THROUGH 8AM MARCH 18TH AT NWS GAYLORD OFFICE.
Mar 18, 8:00 AM EDTSNOW 6.11 Ese Mancelona, MICOCORAHS STATION MI-AT-6 MANCELONA 0.5 ESE.
Mar 18, 8:19 AM EDTHEAVY SNOW 10Johannesburg, MIVIA FACEBOOK. PHOTO SHOWS 10 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AS OF 8AM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 202 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2023-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2023-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -20 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
586 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

553 
WWUS43 KAPX 171955
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
355 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

MIZ021-022-027-180400-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.230317T2100Z-230319T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0002.230317T2100Z-230319T0000Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Kalkaska
355 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 5 to 10 inches possible by early Saturday night. Winds gusting 
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult especially on north-south
  orientated roads. Drifting snow could quickly accumulate on 
  roads. Blowing snow will lead to rapid changes in visibility 
  while driving, with patchy white out conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Plan on slick and snow-covered 
roads.

&&

$$

MIZ095-180400-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.230317T2100Z-230319T0000Z/
Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, and Epoufette
355 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western Mackinac County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Drifting snow could quickly accumulate on roads. 
  Blowing snow will lead to rapid changes in visibility while 
  driving, with patchy white out conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ028-033-180400-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.230317T2100Z-230319T0000Z/
Crawford-Missaukee-
Including the cities of Grayling and Lake City
355 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  4 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Crawford and Missaukee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Drifting snow could quickly accumulate on roads.
  Blowing snow will lead to rapid changes in visibility while
  driving, with patchy white out conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-180400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.230317T2100Z-230319T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard
355 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2
  to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Drifting snow could quickly accumulate on roads. 
  Blowing snow will lead to rapid changes in visibility while 
  driving, with patchy white out conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-099-180400-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.230317T2100Z-230319T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, and Charlevoix
355 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Drifting snow could quickly accumulate on roads. 
  Blowing snow will lead to rapid changes in visibility while 
  driving, with patchy white out conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
7 follow-up statements
035 
WWUS43 KAPX 180243
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1043 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

MIZ021-022-027-181045-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Kalkaska
1043 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible by early Saturday 
  night. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult especially on north-south 
  orientated roads. Drifting snow could quickly accumulate on 
  roads. Blowing snow will lead to rapid changes in visibility 
  while driving, with patchy white out conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Plan on slick and snow-
covered roads.

&&

$$

MIZ086-095-181045-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, Engadine, 
Naubinway, and Epoufette
1043 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  2 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Drifting snow could quickly accumulate on roads. 
  Blowing snow will lead to rapid changes in visibility while 
  driving, with patchy white out conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-028-031>033-099-181045-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Crawford-Manistee-Wexford-
Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix
1043 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Drifting snow could quickly accumulate on roads. 
  Blowing snow will lead to rapid changes in visibility while 
  driving, with patchy white out conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
650 
WWUS43 KAPX 180745
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

MIZ021-022-027-181545-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Kalkaska
345 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 
  of 5 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-095-181545-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, Engadine, 
Naubinway, and Epoufette
345 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Western Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-028-031>033-099-181545-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Crawford-Manistee-Wexford-
Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix
345 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
623 
WWUS43 KAPX 181347
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
947 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

MIZ021-022-027-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Kalkaska
947 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  3 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  will significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ086-095-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, Engadine, 
Naubinway, and Epoufette
947 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Western Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-028-031>033-099-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Crawford-Manistee-Wexford-
Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix
947 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  will significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
245 
WWUS43 KAPX 181918
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
318 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

MIZ021-022-027-190600-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230319T0600Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Kalkaska
318 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow.
  Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with locally
  higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow will significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-028-031>033-099-190600-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0600Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Crawford-Manistee-Wexford-
Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix
318 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow and patchy blowing snow. Additional 
  snow accumulations of up to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 
  35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  will significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-095-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Western Mackinac-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, Engadine, 
Naubinway, and Epoufette
318 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to
  two inches.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Western Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
422 
WWUS43 KAPX 190258
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1058 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

MIZ025-031-032-190400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T0600Z/
Benzie-Manistee-Wexford-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Manistee, and Cadillac
1058 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snowfall intensity has diminished across the area. Therefore, the
winter weather advisory has been cancelled.

$$

MIZ021-022-027-191000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230319T1000Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Kalkaska
1058 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  up to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Quick accumulations of snow on roadways and rapid
  drops in visibility at times. Blowing and drifting snow may lead
  to recovering of some already cleared roadways. Hazardous travel
  conditions may impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-028-033-099-191000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T1000Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Crawford-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, Grayling, 
Lake City, and Charlevoix
1058 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Crawford, Missaukee and 
  Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow will significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
646 
WWUS43 KAPX 190749
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023

MIZ021-022-027-191400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230319T1400Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Kalkaska
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Antrim, Otsego and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-026-028-033-099-191400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T1400Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Crawford-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, Grayling, 
Lake City, and Charlevoix
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to one inch.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Crawford, Missaukee and 
  Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
737 
WWUS43 KAPX 190948
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
548 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023

MIZ021-022-027-191100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230319T1400Z/
Antrim-Otsego-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Kalkaska
548 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

MIZ020-026-028-033-099-191100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-230319T1400Z/
Leelanau-Grand Traverse-Crawford-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Traverse City, Grayling, 
Lake City, and Charlevoix
548 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Mar 17, 1:49 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 1:49 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
149 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

The main upper level low is sinking down through northern Minnesota,
with a compact shortwave rotating around it up into the Great Lakes.
This (and the left exit region of the upper level jet) is supporting
a strengthening 989mb low which has moved just east of the SOO.
Healthy CAA is well underway with most locations west of I-75 having
changed over from light rain to snow between 8 and 10am this
morning. Have issued an SPS for potential flash freeze conditions
through the afternoon as temperatures have started to drop below
freezing with some water still on roadways. Going forecast still
looks to be in good shape with the changeover to snow and the lake
effect starting to blossom on radar. Not expecting huge amounts of
accumulations through the daylight hours today. Even though sfc to
925mb deltaT's will be increasing to 9C through the afternoon with
quickly rising inversion heights, we'll be losing a little
saturation through the top portion of the DGZ as a dry slot moves
overhead, with general subsidence behind the initial shortwave.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...Rain changes to snow and then Lake
effect snow.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast/Concerns...This morning, the rain that is
falling across the forecast area, will begin to change over to snow
as the sfc low moves from W Upper at 06z to the eastern part of the
state by 12z/Fri. The transition, at least so far, is expected to be
a slow mixing with the rain through 12z. However, after 12z this
morning, the colder air looks to spill into the region a little
faster, and will expect that the change over to the snow will be
quicker. Even so, snow amounts look to be minor to light (<3") over
the region through 00z/Sat. Tonight, the LE Snow machine kicks in
with the West to WSW flow. This will push some snow bands ashore in
E Upper, while the West winds will start to put snow in the favored
W flow areas of Emmet/Charlevoix and Cheboygan counties, and, with
Green Bay still open, areas along Lake Michigan south of Northport.
850 mb temperatures are around -17c so this is favorable for
dendritic growth. This remain through the night, but the winds begin
to back to the WSW more and more (except on the Fv3) just before the
trough swing through and the winds veer to the NW around 12z/Sat.
Overall, it looks like a light to moderate amount of snow (1-5")with
locally higher amounts possible. A few advisories may be needed for
tonight, for the "Big 3" (WNW flow) counties
(Charlevoix/Otsego/Antrim). Along the Lake Michigan shore south of
Northport (Leelanau county to Wexford, looks like a decent 2-4"
amount with some locally higher amounts possible. So far the amounts
in E Upper look to be 1-3" so we may escape there without any
headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...moderate to high. Lake effect snow
and wind Saturday, gradually improving Sat night and beyond.

Closed 500mb low will be over eastern upper MI at daybreak Saturday.
Cold temps aloft and deep moisture will aid lake effect snow
production and intensity. The upper low will move ene-ward into
central Quebec by Sat night, with 500mb heights sharply rebounding
over northern MI. This will contribute to gradually improving
conditions.

Inversion heights spike to about 9k ft Sat morning, in a chilly
airmass (850mb temps -18/-19C) and with a useful DGZ (though placed
just a bit below max ascent). So SLRs will be pretty healthy
(especially for the last half of March), near 20-1. Northern lower
MI winds will be veering thru the day, as a secondary surface trof
swings across the area. An initial west flow becomes nw by sunset.
That also corresponds with the 850mb thermal trof starting to exit,
though 850mb temps only rebound to -16C or so by the end of the day
in nw lower MI. Eastern upper MI will see a somewhat more stable NNW
fetch that targets western Chip and perhaps western Mack. Snow
amounts for the day Saturday are broadly 1-5" in nw and n central
lower MI, and 1-4" in western Chip; localized higher totals are
certainly possible. The highest totals should be in the traditional
'Big 5' counties, including Kalkaska, GLR, and E Jordan.

Sat night will see plenty of nw flow lake effect, especially in the
evening, as conditions only gradually become less favorable for lake
effect. (NBM pops are far too low for this period.) Eventually
though, deeper moisture departs, 850mb temps warm to -13/-15C. The
killer is inversion heights dropping to around 3k ft by dawn Sunday.
That should result in substantially less coverage of lake effect snow
as we move thru the overnight hours. Until then, fluffy lake effect
will continue. Broad 1-3" amounts are expected in both peninsulas;
locally higher totals remain possible. Highest amounts for now are
progged in Antrim/Kalkaska Cos.

Sunday...region enters the warm sector of a clipper digging into
northern MN. A back door cold front will edge south toward eastern
upper MI. Ahead of this, much milder air presses in, with 850mb
temps reaching -5C in much of northern lower. Most of the better
moisture with this clipper will be north of the back-door front,
which scrapes by eastern upper MI. There is small chance for some
light snow, especially in Chippewa Co Sunday evening. Otherwise our
wx is much quieter, though we will be pretty windy; enough so to
blow around our fluffy snow to some degree.

Max temps Saturday quite chilly; near 20f to the upper 20s. Min
temps don't far too far that night; teens to lower 20s. Will see 30s
to near 40f for highs Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Relatively zonal flow is established aloft early in the work, with
better shortwaves crossing southern Canada. However, as one of those
shortwaves strengthens, and warm advection increases ahead of it, a
chance for rain and snow will develop late Tuesday into Tue night.
The front that this system lays down will stall in the region, with
one or more systems lifting up along the boundary. So mid-late week
looks at least occasionally unsettled. Temps are most likely to be
near or somewhat above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Colder air and lake effect snow continue to move into the region
tonight behind a strong departing low pressure. Mostly MVFR cigs
will improve slightly overnight outside of any snow bands, before
lowering again Saturday morning. Vsby's have the highest chances of
being reduced to IFR along the west coast late tonight and into
Saturday morning at TVC, MBL, and potentially PLN. West winds this
afternoon and tonight shift to northwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Today through Saturday night...This morning, the low will move
through E Upper, and the winds will veer west and increase to gales
shortly after 12z, on Lake Michigan. The Gales will spread across
the state into Lake Huron and Whitefish Bay by 18z and are expected
to continue through 06z/Sat. The winds diminish, but remain in the
small craft criteria through about 12z/Sat. The winds increase out
of the NW again on Saturday and remain in small craft gusts through
18z, and then go into gales after 18z, and remains with NW gales
through 06z/Sun. Then the winds begin to diminish through 12z/Sun.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for MIZ020>022-025>027-031-032-086-099.
LH...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349.
LM...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344-345.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ346.
LS...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.
&&

UPDATE...STJ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...JSL
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 11:28 AM EDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1128 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-181530-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1128 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Accumulating lake effect snow and strong winds are expected late
this afternoon and tonight across the snow belts of northwest
lower and eastern upper Michigan. Please see the winter weather
advisory for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Accumulating lake effect snow and strong winds are expected
Saturday across the snow belts of northwest lower and eastern
upper. Please see the winter weather advisory for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-181530-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1128 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Gale force wind gusts are expected across much of the nearshore
area today and tonight. Please see the nearshore forecast for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gale force wind gusts are expected across much of the nearshore
area Saturday afternoon and Saturday night on Lake Michigan and
Whitefish Bay.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 3:41 AM EDTWinter Weather AdvisoryAPXAntrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Chippewa, Crawford, Grand Traverse and 7 more50 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2023Every winter storm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.